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Ukraine Power Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

BMI View: The immediate outlook for electricity generation is poor with the country in an official state ofenergy emergency. Fighting in the east of Ukraine has halted coal production in many mines and hasblocked transport lines to power stations. At the time of writing, a tripartite agreement between Russia,Ukraine and the EU for Russia to supply Ukraine with gas through the rest of 2015 was reached. AlthoughUkraine is increasing its generation of nuclear energy, we still forecast a decline in generation to152.9TWh in 2015, down from 155.5TWh in 2014.

Longer term, both production and consumption will rise as the economy starts to recover and processes ofintegration with the EU bring about a partial liberalization of the power sector and investment from abroad.This will create opportunities for investment in Ukraine's power sector. However, multiple barriers stand inthe way of developing the sector, including corruption, vested interests and the fractious politicalenvironment, meaning that electricity production will fall far short of Ukraine's potential.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Power Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Ukraine Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2014-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2019-2024) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Ukraine Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018) 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024) 13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024) 15
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024) 20
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018) 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024) 22
Industry Risk/Reward Index 24
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 24
Ukraine Power Risk/Reward Index 28
Rewards 28
Risks 28
Market Overview 30
Key Policies And Market Structure 30
Ukraine - Ukraine Power Projects Database 33
Table: Ukraine Major Projects - Power 33
Competitive Landscape 35
Ukrenergo 36
AES 36
Regional Overview 37
Glossary 42
Table: Glossary Of Terms 42
Methodology 43
Methodology And Sources 43
Industry Forecast Methodology 43
Sources 46
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 46
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 47
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 48

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