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  4. > Ukraine Power Report Q4 2016

Ukraine Power Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 54 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View:

The immediate outlook for electricity generation in Ukraine is poor, with an official state of energy emergency still in place in parts of the country. Despite a ceasefire agreement in 2015, there are reports of continued fighting in eastern Ukraine. That said, we expect power generation to stabilise in 2016 as conditions improve marginally, and see total generation returning to near-2014 levels.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

- In the longer term, production and consumption will rise as the economy starts to recover and processes of integration with the EU bring about a partial liberalisation of the power sector and investment from abroad. This will create opportunities for investment in Ukraine's power sector. However, multiple barriers stand in the way of developing the sector, including corruption, vested interests and the fractious political environment, so electricity production will fall far short of Ukraine's potential.

- Ukraine's natural gas imports approximately halved over the course of January-February 2016 (versus the same period in the previous year), with the entirety of them coming from the European Union rather than Russia. The difficult import outlook for natural gas suggests downside risks to our forecast for gas-fired generation to stabilise in 2016. The short-term outlook for Ukraine's coal-fired power sector is poor due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine's main coal-producing regions in the east of the country. Around twothirds of Ukraine's mines have ceased activity, forcing Ukraine to import coal to cover its needs.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Ukraine 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Ukraine Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Ukraine 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Ukraine 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Ukraine Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 22
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2019) 23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2020-2025) 23
Industry Risk/Reward Index 24
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 24
Ukraine Power Risk/Reward Index 31
Rewards 31
Risks 31
Market Overview 32
Key Policies And Market Structure 32
Regulation And Competition 32
Pricing 33
Ukraine Power Projects Database 35
Table: Largest Projects By Capacity 36
Competitive Landscape 38
Ukrenergo 39
AES 39
Regional Overview 40
CEE Power Regional Overview 40
Glossary 48
Table: Glossary Of Terms 48
Methodology 49
Methodology And Sources 49
Industry Forecast Methodology 49
Sources 52
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 52
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 54

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