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  4. > Peru Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Peru Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

We continue to maintain a generally positive outlook for the Peruvian agricultural sector. Wehave modestly revised our forecasts for several segments of the Peruvian agricultural sector in our Q4 2016update though continue to maintain a positive outlook for the agricultural sector as a whole. Export cropssuch as coffee and cocoa are hampered by infrastructure constraints and a lack of investment; however, asPeru develops and gains recognition for organic and speciality crops, both these sectors stand to benefit.Peru is also set to benefit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains and weakness in theArgentine peso, as Argentina is a major source of imported grains. Recently the focus has shifted towardsthe coffee and cocoa crop, both strong export based revenue generating commodities for the Peruvianeconomy. Peru is one of the largest exporters of coffee, and organic coffee in particular. The recent rustdisease significantly diminished the national coffee crop and has forced many smaller, independent farmersinto bankruptcy. Looking forward, we believe that both coffee and cocoa will post strong gains.Furthermore the dairy and livestock sectors will also grow significantly based on rising incomes andprivate final consumption levels.

Key Forecasts

- Poultry production to 2019/2020: 1.429mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaperimported feed will support growth in the sector.

- Sugar consumption to 2020: 1.648mn tonnes. Low sugar prices and the rapid expansion of the localconfectionery and soft drinks sector will see an expansion in demand for sugar in the coming years.

- Corn consumption to 2020: 4.64mn tonnes. Domestic consumption of corn is set to increase as Peruimports more corn from Andean neighbours at a cheap price.

- Cocoa production to 2020: 98,000 tonnes. Cocoa production will increase as export demand remainsstable and investment is made into Peruvian cocoa infrastructure.

Table Of Contents

Peru Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Cocoa Outlook 11
Table: Peru - Cocoa Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption 14
Coffee Outlook 14
Table: Peru - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption 18
Sugar Outlook 18
Table: Peru Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption 21
Grains Outlook 22
Table: Peru Grain Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Table: Peru Grain Production And Consumption 25
Livestock Outlook 26
Table: Peru Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 27
Table: Risks To Outlook 28
Table: Livestock Production And Consumption 29
Dairy Outlook 30
Table: Peru Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 31
Table: Risks To Outlook 32
Table: Peru Dairy Production And Consumption 33
Commodities Price Analysis 35
Commodities Forecasts 35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 35
Upstream Analysis 37
Americas GM Outlook 37
Americas Machinery Outlook 44
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 47
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 51
Downstream Analysis 59
Food 59
Agri-Industrial 59
Fisheries 60
Food Processing 60
Organic Farming 60
Regional Overview 61
Competitive Landscape 67
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 67
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Peru 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Peru 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Peru 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Peru 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Peru 1990-2025) 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Sector-Specific Methodology 74

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