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  5. > United Kingdom Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

United Kingdom Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Brexit will be a net negative for the UK agriculture industry due to short-term uncertaintyfollowed by lower revenues and increased costs owing to less favourable subsidies, trade and labourconditions. We expect grains to be the most resilient sector due to its low production costs and greater easein diversifying trade relationships. In contrast, sugar will be a clear underperformer as the UK will struggleto fully take advantage of the EU quota removal in 2017, while failing to offset this loss with sourcingalternative trade partners. The livestock and dairy sectors will be able to supply a greater share of domesticdemand while benefiting from higher prices, although costs of production will also be higher.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20 on the 2014/15 level: -31.6% to 6.5mn tonnes. Over the next tenyears, output will decline severely as the UK leaves the EU's protected sugar market, while domestic andalternative export opportunities will only partially offset this loss.

- Sugar consumption growth to 2019/20 on the 2014/15 level: -1.8% to 2.3mn tonnes. We expect sugarconsumption in the UK to begin a steady decline in response to the introduction of a sugar tax by thegovernment in 2018, as well as higher domestic prices following Brexit.

- Wheat production growth to 2019/20 on the 2014/15 level: -6.7% to 15.5mn tonnes. Wheatproduction will see a moderate decline over the next five years due to lower subsidies and wheat pricesonly slowly bottoming-out from 2016 onwards.

- Poultry consumption growth to 2019/20: 13.5% to 2.4mn tonnes. Demand for poultry will be strongas the meat is a cheaper and leaner source of protein than either pork or beef, which will make it appeal toUK consumers over the coming years, especially as domestic prices increase after the UK leaves the EU.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 1.4% y-o-y (revised down from 1.8% since our last quarterly update), downfrom 2.3% y-o-y in 2015, forecast to rise 1.5% on average annually between 2015/16 and 2019/20.

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 0.5% y-o-y average, up from 0.1% in 2015, forecast to rise to 2.1% onaverage annually between 2016 and 2020.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value growth: USD30.3bn in 2015/16, down by 1.1% y-o-y fromUSD30.6bn in 2014/15, forecast to rise 1.5% on average annually between 2015/16 and 2019/20.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 13
Brexit Scenario 13
Grains Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: United Kingdom - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Structural Trends 19
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 21
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 21
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 21
Livestock Outlook 22
Latest Updates 22
Table: United Kingdom - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Structural Trends 25
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 27
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 27
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 27
Sugar Outlook 28
Latest Updates 28
Table: United Kingdom - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 30
Table: Risks To Outlook 30
Structural Trends 31
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 33
Dairy Outlook 34
Latest Updates 34
Table: United Kingdom - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 36
Table: Risks To Outlook 36
Structural Trends 37
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 39
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 39
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (United Kingdom 2012-2020) 39
Commodity Price Analysis 40
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 40
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 41
Upstream Analysis 43
Europe GM Outlook 43
Europe Machinery Outlook 49
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) 54
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 56
Downstream Analysis 62
Food 62
Latest Updates 62
Structural Trends 63
Table: Food Sales (United Kingdom 2013-2020) 64
Regional Overview 66
Europe Regional Overview 66
Competitive Landscape 72
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 72
Demographic Forecast 73
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 74
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 74
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Kingdom 1990-2025) 76
Methodology 78
Industry Forecast Methodology 78
Sector-Specific Methodology 79

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