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  4. > China Power Report Q4 2016

China Power Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 77 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View:

This quarter our forecasts remain virtually unchanged. China's power continues to be affected negatively by the ongoing economic slowdown in the country and the government's continued efforts to tackle coal consumption. The government's centralised coal reduction efforts, coupled with the increased adoption of renewable energy - and also 'cleaner' fuels such as nuclear power - will lessen coal's dominance of the power mix over the coming decade. We expect coal-fired power generation to contract over 2016 and 2017, with coal contributing around 55% to the total electricity mix by 2025 - from a contribution level of about 70% in 2015. The outlook for power consumption is similarly muted, with annual average growth rates of 3% between 2016 and 2025, as China's economy shifts away from powerintensive manufacturing.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- China's role in regional power markets across the world will continue to expand throughout 2016, with both developed and developing markets targeted for investment. Chinese companies will be most active in the coal, hydropower, nuclear and renewables equipment industries, gaining market share in these sectors.

- The Chinese government will push-on with its coal reduction policies, despite ongoing provincial-level resistance, in a bid to reduce overcapacity in the power sector and curb pollution. We expect coal-fired power generation to contract over 2016 and 2017, with coal accounting for around 55% of the total electricity generation mix by 2025.

Table Of Contents

China Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: China - Headline Power Forecasts, 2015-2021 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 12
China Snapshot 12
Table: China - Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data, 2015-2020 12
Table: China - Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data, 2020-2025 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 12
China Power Forecast Scenario 13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 13
Table: China - Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2014-2019 23
Table: China - Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2020-2025 24
Table: China - Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2014-2019 25
Table: China - Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2020-2025 26
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: China - Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2014-2019 27
Table: China - Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2020-2025 27
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 27
Table: China - Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts, 2014-2019 29
Table: China - Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts, 2020-2025 29
Table: China - Trade Data And Forecasts, 2014-2019 29
Table: China - Trade Data And Forecasts, 2020-2025 29
Industry Risk/Reward Index 30
Asia Power Risk Reward Index 30
Table: Power RRI By Country (Scores Out Of 100) 36
China Power Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 37
Market Overview 39
Key Policies And Market Structure 39
Regulation And Competition 39
Sustainable Energy Policies 41
Pricing 43
China Power Projects Database 44
Table: China - Top 10 Power Projects By Capacity 44
Competitive Landscape 47
Huaneng Power International 47
China Huaneng Group 48
China Datang Corporation 48
China Huadian Corporation 48
China Guodian Corporation 49
State Power Investment Corporation 49
China Southern Power Grid 50
State Grid Corporation 50
Company Profile 51
Huaneng Power International 51
Regional Overview 54
Asia (Region) - Coal To Dominate, But Contribution To Slip 54
Table: Bmi's Japan Korea Marker Forecast 58
13th Five-Year Plan 60
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 60
Summary Of Contents 60
Chapter 1: Overview 61
Table: Targets 61
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 62
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 63
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 64
Chapter 5: Industries 65
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 66
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 66
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 67
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 68
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 69
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 69
Others: 69
Glossary 71
Table: Glossary Of Terms 71
Methodology 72
Methodology And Sources 72
Industry Forecast Methodology 72
Sources 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 75
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 77

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