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China Power Report Q4 2014

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 83 pages

BMI View:
China's power sector continues to be in a league of its own; and announcements by China Premier, Li Keqianq, that a series of large-scale power sector construction projects will be launched to 'stabilise growth and improve energy security' suggest that the sector will be benefit from China targeted stimulus approach. That said, with BMI's Country Risk analysts anticipating that the Chinese economy is likely to slow down in the coming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economic liberalisation process slows, and population growth falls. As such a slowdown in power demand appears to be on the cards. Meanwhile, the country is trying to ease its reliance on coal, focusing on cleaner forms of power generation. However, we still expect coal-fired capacity to grow in real terms and dominate the energy mix to the end of our forecast period.

In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources play a key role and are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation over the coming years, as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas and as Chinese efforts in prospecting and exploiting conventional oil and gas resources are set to increase. While other sources of power will play increasingly important roles, China will remain reliant on coal for its power generation over the next decade. Energy poverty is a key concern in the country and coal will remain the only realistic option for providing cheap and abundant energy for the local population over the medium term. Yet, rising coal prices are once again a key threat to the profitability of power generation companies operating in the domestic segment and Chinese utilities have placed collective pressure on the government to moderate proposed restrictions on imported coal, highlighting the difficulties China has in balancing the interests of its mining and power sectors as growth slows.

Table Of Contents

China Power Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 12
China Snapshot 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2013-2018). 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2018-2023). 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 12
China Power Forecast Scenario 13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017) . 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023) . 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017). . 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023). . 16
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017).26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023).26
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 27
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017) . 27
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023) . 27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2017) . 27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2018-2023) . 27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Asia Pacific Power Power Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings.35
China Power Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Rewards . 36
Risks 37
Market Overview 38
Key Policies And Market Structure 38
Regulation And Competition 38
Sustainable Energy Policies 40
Pricing 44
China Power Projects Database 45
Table: China Major Projects - Power . . 45
Competitive Landscape . 64
Huaneng Power International 64
China Huaneng Group . 65
China Datang Corporation . 65
China Huadian Corporation 66
China Guodian Corporation 66
China Power Investment Corporation 67
China Southern Power Grid 67
State Grid Corporation 67
Company Profile . 68
Huaneng Power International 68
Regional Overview 71
Asia Pacific Power Regional Overview 71
Table: Fact Box: Key Strategies Of Fourth Basic Energy Plan 73
Glossary 76
Table: Glossary Of Terms. . . 76
Methodology . 77
Methodology And Sources . 77
Industry Forecast Methodology . 77
Sources 80
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 80
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators . . 81
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 83

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