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  4. > Egypt Autos Report Q4 2015

Egypt Autos Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 56 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Without marked improvements in private consumption fundamentals such as employment growth metrics and credit growth indicators, we have revised down our vehicle sales forecast for 2015 to a decline of 6.1% followed by a 4.2% recovery in 2016 but volumes will not surpass their 2014 levels until 2017. Less promising demand for commercial vehicles also forms part of our downbeat view, after demand from heavy construction industries falls after the large scale Suez dredging activities end. In addition to this market decline we also anticipate a shake-up in the country's competitive landscape. The shake-up is taking place as a result of Egypt's FTA with the EU. Sales of imported vehicles are growing at a much faster rate than domestically-produced sales, which are actually contracting and imports now account for a bigger share of the market than they have previously. This has prompted Daimler to withdraw from its local assembly operations as vehicles imported from Europe are more cost-effective, but we do not believe this marks the beginning of a mass exodus from the country.

Table Of Contents

Egypt Autos Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political . 10
Economic .. 11
Operational Risk . 13
Industry Forecast .. 15
Production, Sales And Trade 15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2019) 15
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2019) 15
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2019) 16
Imports Claim Bigger Share 16
Lesson From Australia . 17
Table: Egypt Total Market Sales By Brand, 2014 18
Outlook Still Bleak Despite Importer Outperformance .. 18
Production Threats 19
Macroeconomic Forecast 24
Table: Egypt - Components Of GDP (% Of Total) . 27
GDP By Expenditure 27
Table: Egypt - Private Consumption Forecasts 27
Table: Egypt - Government Consumption Forecasts . 29
Table: Egypt - Fixed Investment Forecasts . 29
Table: Egypt - Net Exports Forecasts 30
Industry Risk Reward Index 32
Sub-Saharan Africa - Risk/Reward Index 32
Outperformers Are Production Hubs . 32
Policy Not Always Positive . 33
Weak Currency A Barrier To Improvement . 34
Company Profile . 35
Volvo . 35
GB Auto . 37
General Motors Egypt (GM Egypt) . 39
Regional Overview 40
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Autos Production Investment 40
Kenya Builds On Hub Advantage .. 40
Slowly But Surely For Cameroon .. 41
Nigerian Policy Keeps Investment Coming In . 41
Global Industry Overview .. 43
1. Currency Weakness Hurting African Growth .. 43
2. Increasing Local Content In Trouble Spots . 44
3. SUVs Rolling On .. 45
4. Tech/Autos Lines Are Blurring .. 47
Demographic Forecast .. 48
Demographic Outlook 48
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Egypt 1990-2025) 49
Table: Key Population Ratios (Egypt 1990-2025) 49
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Egypt 1990-2025) . 50
Table: Population By Age Group (Egypt 1990-2025) 50
Table: Population By Age Group % (Egypt 1990-2025) . 51
Methodology . 53
Industry Forecasts . 53
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 54
Sources 54
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 56

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