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Mobile and Desktop Computing – The Changing Landscape


Never before has the mobile and desktop computing industry experienced such major change - change which will play out for at least the next decade. While some major segments have reached near commodity status, the entire industry is in upheaval due to maturation of the desktop category, slowing growth in notebooks, possibly the first ever potential for negative growth, and the wild ride of ultra'mobile smartphones and tablets.

In addition, there is the potential for new players, a few known, others unknown at this time. These players could play a major role as markets emerging in China, SE Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Africa and the ROW region begin to mature economically and build infrastructure.

There is also the dynamic of where mobile and desktop computing products are being manufactured, i.e. outsourced, how that will continue - and a look at which regions dominate product design and OEM print control.

Those in the industry are scurrying around with new categories of notebooks, tablets and convertibles, with some entries appearing to be thrown at the wall hoping something will stick.

For drivers in the industry: There are threats to the dominance of Intel and Microsoft, and well'financed attempts by them to try to lead the ultra'mobile bandwagon. For Apple there have been major innovations, huge rewards, yet questions persist about their future new product development pace. For other manufacturers: Google, Qualcomm, ARM and Samsung there are opportunities to crack former duopolies. Google is well into their relentless drive to dominate with Android in smartphones and tablets. Interestingly, Intel, Microsoft and Google are testing the water with their own hardware devices. Microsoft’s introduction of Windows 8, a touch based OS, may help drive sales of new tablets and laptops implementing the new touch screens to take advantage of the new Metro interface.

For connector manufacturers, shifts in demand patterns will be challenging: away from traditional desktops, motherboards and notebooks, to smartphones, tablets, UltraBooks* and all'in?one desktops. There is also the potential for more turmoil among OEMs and ODM suppliers, with possible questions about current leaders, and where their future product and customer penetration should be focused.

This study attempts to look at these dynamic changes both from the perspective of leading OEMs, and the unit volumes of connectors to be used in the different computing and mobile market segments. This report will be of value to connector manufacturers, OEMs and other stakeholders in the extended PC category, which is no longer complete without looking at smartphones, tablets, notebooks, UltraBooks, desktop towers and AIO desktops.

Table Of Contents

Mobile and Desktop Computing Market Analysis and Forecast: 2010-2020
Introduction
• Introduction
• High Leverage Items in 2012-2020 Forecasting
• Past
• Future
• State of the Extended PC Market Place
• Overall
• Observations
• Connector Industry
• About This Study
Chapter 1 - History and Trends
• History of the PC Market
• Recent History and Competitive Dynamics
• Market Share of OEM and ODM PC Makers
• Units and Share PC Original Design Manufacturers 2006 - 2011
• Historical Unit Volume
• 15 Year World PC Unit Growth 1996 - 2011
• 25 Year World PC Unit Growth 1996 - 2021
• World Wintel Desktop/Notebook PC Units 1996 - 2020
• World PC-Mac Units 1996 - 2020
• One Battleground
• Trend Analysis of Personal Computer and Tablet Marketplace
• Rating Suppliers for Industrial Design
• Notebook OEMs
• AIO Desktop OEMs
• Universe of Suppliers
• Notebook Makers
• Original Design Manufacturers
• Market Channels
• Rating PC Sales Channels
• Intel as Key PC and Semiconductor Technology Driver
• Intel Roadmaps
• CPU Roadmap 2008 - 2022
• Desktop Core i5
• Desktop Core i3
• Core i7 Notebooks
• Core i5 and i3 Notebooks
• Atom Roadmap
• Improvement Trends for ICs Enabled by Feature Scaling
• Summary of PC Industry Dynamics
• The Personal Computer Market is Facing Change
• Interconnect Trends

Chapter 2 - Mobile Computing
• PDAs Have Gone to Heaven
• Who Won?
• Who Lost or Had a Learning Experience?
• PDA Market Moved from Computers to Telecommunications
• Mobile/Smartphone Market
• New Entrants
• Mobile Phone Shipments and Share 2012 - 2020
• World Mobile Phone Share 2012
• World Mobile Phone Share 2015
• World Mobile Phone Shares 2020
• Smartphone/Mobile Device Global Market Forecast
• All Mobile Worldwide Sales 2010 - 2020
• Apple - Samsung Patent Wars
• OS Share of Mobile Phone Market 2011 - 2015
• Mobile Phone Forecast 2010 - 2020
• Smartphone vs. Cell Phone Volume 2010 - 2020
• Mobile Phone OEMs
• Key Smartphone Design Features
• Market Direction/Dynamics
• Prediction: Smartphone Leaders for the 2010 - 2020 Decade
• Leading Phones
• Top 4 Phone Designs 2012
• Qualcomm Mirasol Reflective Display Technology
• Mobile Phone/Palmtop Summary
• Current State of the Art
• Connector Application Trends

Chapter 3 - Tablet Devices
• Evolution of the Tablet
• Here Comes MSFT
• Market Forecast
• World Forecast Tablet Devices 2010-2020 Nominal
• Nominal World Tablet Market 2010-2020
• Optimistic World iPad/Tablet Sales 2010-2020
• Strong World Forecast including MFST
• Tablet Technology and Design
• Technology and Design Trends
• Supplier/Product Review
- Apple Computer
- Asustek Computer
- Acer Inc
- Amazon.com
- Barnes and Noble
- Fujitsu Ltd
- Google Inc
- Lenovo
- Microsoft Inc
- Motorola
- Panasonic
- RIM
- Samsung
- Sony
- Toshiba
- Viewsonic Corp
- Vizio Corp
• Dell and HP?
• Difference Between iPad, Android and Windows Tablets
• Under the Hood
• iPad 3G Teardown
• Samsung Galaxy
• Comments on Packaging
• Summary and Conclusion iPad/Tablet Computing
• Future
• Which OS Will Win?

Chapter 4 - Notebook Computers
• Evolution of the Notebook Computer Market
• Advent of ODMs
• Units and Share - PC ODMs 2006 - 2011
• Notebook Market Assessment
• Internecine Competition
• Notebook Forecast
• Notebook /Ultrabook Forecast 2010-2015: Developed World vs Emerging Economies
• Developed vs Emerging Market
• Potential Impact of Tablets
• Notebook Tablet Mix 2010
• Notebook Tablet Mix 2020
• Notebook/Ultrabook Mix 2010 - 2020 Units - World Consumption
• Notebook Manufacturers
• Hewlett Packard
• Dell Computer
• Lenovo
• Apple Computer
• Samsung
• Acer
• Asustek
• Sony Corporation
• Toshiba Corporation
• Notebook Trends
• Market Share Trends by OEM
• Global OEM Market Share 2010-2020
• Notebook Market Share 2010
• Notebook Market Share 2020
• Key Technologies/Observations
• Future Technology
• Hardware Design
• MacBook Pro
• Samsung Series 8 Ultrabook
• Notebook Observations
• Implications/ Trends for the Connector Market

Chapter 5 - Desktops
• Evolution of the Desktop
• Current and Future Desktops
• Market for Desktop Systems
• Nominal World Forecast Desktops vs Total PC, 1996 - 2006
• Nominal World Forecast Desktops vs Total PC, 2006 - 2016
• Nominal World Forecast Desktops vs Total PC, 2012 - 2022
• World PC Market Including Tablets Forecast/Trends 2010 - 2020
• World PC Markets vs Tablets 2000 Share
• World PC Markets vs Tablets 2010 Share
• World PC Markets vs Tablets 2020 Share
• Conclusions
• Market Share Projections, Major Desktop OEMs
• Desktop Market Share Estimates 2010 - 2020
• Desktop OEMs and ODMs
• Apple Computer
• Acer
• Asus
• Dell Computer
• Fujitsu Technology Solutions
• Hewlett Packard
• Intel Corporation
• Lenovo/Legend Holdings
• Microsoft
• Samsung Electronics
• Sony Corporation
• Systemax
• Connector Trends

Chapter 6 - Equipment
• Introduction
• Future
• Total World Unit Forecast Tablets - PC - Mac 2010-2020
- World Unit Sales Extended PC Market 2010 - 2020
- World Extended PC Unit Sales by Type 2010
- World Extended PC Unit Sales by Type 2015
- World Extended PC Unit Sales by Type 2020
• Smartphone Consumption by Region 2010 - 2020
- Smartphone Consumption by Region 2015 - 2020
- Smartphone Percent of Dollars Consumption by Region 2012
- Smartphone Percent of Dollars Consumption by Region 2020
- Smartphone System Assembly by Region
- Smartphone Dollar Assembly by Region
- Smartphone Percent of Dollar Assembly by Region 2012
- Smart phone Percent of Dollar Assembly by Region 2020
- Smartphone OEM Production Value by Region
- Smartphone OEM Production Value by Region 2010 - 2015
- Smartphone OEM Production Value by Region 2012
- Smartphone OEM Production Value by Region 2020
• Tablet Consumption by Region 2010 - 2020
- Tablet Consumption by Region 2015 - 2020
- Tablets Percent of Dollars Consumption by Region 2010
- Tablets Percent of Dollars Consumption by Region 2020
- Tablet System Assembly by Region
- Tablet Percent of Dollar Assembly by Region 2010 - 2015
- Tablets Percent of Dollar System Assembly by Region 2010
- Tablets Percent of Dollar System Assembly by Region 2020
- Tablet OEM Production Value by Region
- Tablet OEM Production Value by Region 2010 - 2015
- Tablet OEM Production Value by Region 2010
- Tablet OEM Production Value by Region 2020
• Notebook Sales by Type 2010 - 2020
- All Notebook Sales in US Dollars 2010 - 2015
- World Notebook Sales by Type 2010 - 2020
- Notebook Consumption by Region 2010 - 2020
- Notebook Consumption by Region 2015 - 2020
- Notebook Percent of Dollars Consumption by Region 2010
- Notebook Percent of Dollars Consumption by Region 2020
- Notebook System Assembly by Region 2010 - 2020
- Notebook Assembly by Region 2010 -2015
- Notebook Percent of Dollar System Assembly by Region 2010
- Notebook Percent of Dollar System Assembly by Region 2020
- Notebook OEM Production Value by Region
- Notebook OEM Production Value by Region 2010 - 2015
• Desktop PC Mix 2010 - 2020
- Total Desktop Trend
- World Desktop Mix PC/Mac 2010 - 2015
- World Desktop Mix Pc/Mac 2010
- World Desktop Mix Pc/Mac 2020
- Desktop PC Regional Consumption 2010 - 2020
- World Desktop Consumption by Region
- Desktop Percent of Dollars Consumption by Region 2010
- Desktop Percent of Dollars Consumption by Region 2020
- Desktop Regional Assembly 2010-2020
- Desktop Assembly by Region 2010-2015
- Desktop Percent of Dollars System Assembly by Region 2010
- Desktop Percent of Dollars System Assembly by Region 2020
- World Desktop OEM Production Value by Region 2010 - 2020
- Desktop Percent of Dollars OEM Production Value 2010 - 2015
- Desktop Percent of Dollars OEM Production Values by Region 2012
- Desktop Percent of Dollars OEM Production Values by Region 2020

Chapter 7 - Mobile and Desktop Connector Unit Forecast
• Computer System and Connector Usage by Region
• Connector Trends
• Smartphone System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems Assembly
• Smartphone System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems OEM Production
• Tablet System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems Assembly
• Tablet System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems OEM Production
• Notebook System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems Assembly
• Notebook System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems OEM Production
• Desktop Tower System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems Assembly
• Desktop Tower System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems OEM Production
• Desktop AIO System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems Assembly
• Desktop AIO System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems OEM Production
• Total World System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems Assembly
• System Assembly by Region
• Connector Assembly into Systems by Region 2010-2020
• Total World System and Connector Forecast by Region 2010-2020 Systems OEM Production
• System OEM Production Value by Region 2010-2020
• Connectors in System OEM Production Value by Region 2010-2020
• Connector Mix by Product Category 2010-2020
• World Smartphone Connector Mix 2010-2020
• World Tablet Connector Mix 2010-2020
• World Notebook Connector Mix 2010-2020
• World Desktop Connector Mix 2010-2020

Chapter 8 - Connector Forecasts by Region and Equipment Type
• North American Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011 to 2017 with Percent Change
- North American Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011, 2012 and 2017 with Percent Change and 5-Year CAGR
- 2012 Percent Share by Equipment Type
- 2017 Percent Share by Equipment Type
• European Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011 to 2017 with Percent Change
- European Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011, 2012 and 2017 with Percent Change and 5-Year CAGR
- 2012 Percent Share by Equipment Type
- 2017 Percent Share by Equipment Type
• Japanese Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011 to 2017 with Percent Change
- Japanese Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011, 2012 and 2017 with Percent Change and 5-Year CAGR
- 2012 Percent Share by Equipment Type
- 2017 Percent Share by Equipment Type
• Chinese Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011 to 2017 with Percent Change
- Chinese Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011, 2012 and 2017 with Percent Change and 5-Year CAGR
- 2012 Percent Share by Equipment Type
- 2017 Percent Share by Equipment Type
• Asia Pacific Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011 to 2017 with Percent Change
- Asia Pacific Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011, 2012 and 2017 with Percent Change and 5-Year CAGR
- 2012 Percent Share by Equipment Type
- 2017 Percent Share by Equipment Type
• ROW Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011 to 2017 with Percent Change
- ROW Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011, 2012 and 2017 with Percent Change and 5-Year CAGR
- 2012 Percent Share by Equipment Type
- 2017 Percent Share by Equipment Type
• Total World Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011 to 2017 with Percent Change
- Total World Connector Forecast by Equipment Type 2011, 2012 and 2017 with Percent Change and 5-Year CAGR
- 2012 Percent Share by Equipment Type
- 2017 Percent Share by Equipment Type
- Total World 2012 to 2017 CAGR by Equipment Type

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