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Russia Information Technology Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 87 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The short term outlook for the Russian IT market is negative, with a local currency contractionexpected due to the weaker economic outlook, sanctions and sharp rouble depreciation (which is expectedto result in a 40.5% contraction in US dollar terms in 2015). Sanctions impact vendors asymmetrically, forinstance US vendors are most likely to suffer due to reputational damage, with IT products and solutionsincreasingly seen through the lens of national security by both the US and Russian government. As a resultwe expect Chinese server and storage vendors to capitalise on increased demand in Russia, which couldalso have implications for software vendors over the medium term.

Looking over the forecast period, weexpect growth to return in local currency terms from 2016, but a more significant acceleration from 2017as the economic environment becomes more supportive, offering some growth potential in the latter years ofour forecast. There is, however, downside risk to this scenario due to US-Russian relations, while politicalfactors also present risks to vendors, for instance data localization requirements and the government'sincreased strategic value on achieving technological independence.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Computer Hardware Sales: RUB507.6bn in 2014 to RUB471.3bn in 2015, -7.2% in local currencyterms. In addition to the impact of depreciation on affordability in 2015, demand was brought forward to2014 ahead of anticipated price increases, adding to the drag on spending.

Table Of Contents

Russia Information Technology Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
IT SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Table: IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2019) 15
Macroeconomic Forecasts 23
Economic Analysis 23
Table: RUSSIA - Private Consumption Forecasts 27
Table: RUSSIA - Government Consumption Forecasts 28
Table: RUSSIA - Fixed Capital Formation Forecasts 28
Table: RUSSIA - Net Exports Forecasts 29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 30
Industry Risk Reward Index 30
Table: Europe IT Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2015 32
Market Overview 33
Hardware 33
Software 42
Cloud Computing 48
Table: Russia Cloud Vendor Developments, 2014-2015 53
Services 54
Industry Trends And Developments 60
Regulatory Development 66
Table: IT Authorities 66
Competitive Landscape 70
International Companies 70
Table: Lenovo 70
Table: Foxconn 71
Table: Huawei Technologies 72
Local Companies 73
Table: Kaspersky Lab 73
Table: Mailru 74
Regional Overview 75
Europe 75
Demographic Forecast 78
Demographic Outlook 78
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 79
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 79
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 80
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 80
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 81
Methodology 83
Industry Forecast Methodology 83
Sources 84
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 85
Table: IT Risk/Reward Index Indicators 86
Table: Weighting Of Components 87

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