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  4. > South Africa Autos Report Q4 2015

South Africa Autos Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Over the past quarter, BMI has made further downward revisions to our already-negative forecasts for newvehicle sales in South Africa. We are now targeting a 14.9% fall in sales over 2015, to 547,073 units, withrisks remaining very much weighted towards the downside.There remain a number of reasons behind our increased bearishness towards South Africa's autos market.For one, rand weakness is dramatically increasing the cost of imported cars. This is affecting allautomakers, including Chinese original equipment manufacturers. Second, we are now expecting the SouthAfrican economy to grow by less than 2% in both 2015 and 2016, with growth being held back by powerissues at state-owned utility Eskom and an uncompetitive local labour market. Moreover, inflation is alsobecoming a concern for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), and we are expecting a 50 basis pointincrease in interest rates over H215.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Autos Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Autos 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Production, Sales and Trade 15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2019) 15
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2019) 15
Sales 15
Production 18
Trade 21
Passenger Vehicles 23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2019) 23
Table: South Africa - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers, 2014 24
Commercial Vehicles 28
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2019) 28
Suppliers 33
Alternative Fuels 34
Macroeconomic Forecast 37
Economic Analysis 37
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019) 41
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Sub-Saharan Africa - Risk/Reward Index 42
Outperformers Are Production Hubs 42
Policy Not Always Positive 43
Weak Currency A Barrier To Improvement 44
Company Profile 45
Volvo 45
Toyota South Africa Motors (TSAM) 47
Volkswagen South Africa (VWSA) 48
Ford Motor Company of Southern Africa (FMCSA) 49
Regional Overview 51
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Autos Production Investment 51
Kenya Builds On Hub Advantage 51
Slowly But Surely For Cameroon 52
Nigerian Policy Keeps Investment Coming In 52
Global Industry Overview 54
1 Currency Weakness Hurting African Growth 54
2 Increasing Local Content In Trouble Spots 55
3 SUVs Rolling On 56
4 Tech/Autos Lines Are Blurring 58
Demographic Forecast 59
Demographic Outlook 59
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 60
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 60
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 61
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 61
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 62
Methodology 64
Industry Forecasts 64
Sector-Specific Methodology 65
Sources 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 66
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 67

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