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South Africa Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 114 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Improvements to South Africa's pharmaceutical distribution procedures will improve the population's access to essential medicines. Moreover, advancements to the country's drug monitoring capabilities will make the country a more attractive destination for local manufacturing over the long term. While South Africa is taking steps to address the distribution of counterfeit medicines, the widespread prevalence of substandard drugs will remain a risk to our outlook for the country.


Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: ZAR43.41bn (USD3.40bn) in 2015 to ZAR47.48bn (USD3.08bn) in 2016; +9.4% in local currency terms and -9.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms revised slightly upwards from last quarter.

- Healthcare: ZAR359.6bn (USD28.2bn) in 2015 to ZAR387.0bn (USD25.1bn) in 2016; +7.6% in local currency terms and -10.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms revised slightly upwards from last quarter. South Africa has strong longer-term commercial potential because of its sizeable population and economic development. However, the impact of currency depreciation and a worsening economic outlook have hurt its short-term growth prospects. In Q416, South Africa's stepped up from 11th to 9th position in the matrix compared to the previous quarter, with a score of 49.9 out of 100.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2020) 13
Healthcare Market Forecast 14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2020) 17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2020) 17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2020) 18
Prescription Drug Forecast 19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2020) 20
Patented Drug Market Forecast 21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2020) 23
Generic Drug Market Forecast 24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2020) 25
OTC Medicine Forecast 26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2020) 28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2020) 30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (South Africa 2014-2020) 30
Industry Risk/Reward Index 31
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016 31
South Africa Risk/Reward Index 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Regulatory Review 41
Table: Drug Classification System 41
Intellectual Property Issues 46
Pricing Regime 49
Table: Tiered Pharmaceutical Pricing System Is Better Than A Flat Fixed Mark-Up 49
Reimbursement Regime 51
Market Overview 52
Healthcare Sector 53
Table: Healthcare Resources (South Africa 2010-2015) 59
Table: Healthcare Personnel (South Africa 2010-2015) 59
Table: Healthcare Activity (South Africa 2010-2015) 60
Research and Development 60
South Africa Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2016$$
Clinical Trials 61
Epidemiology 65
Competitive Landscape 69
Research-Based Industry 69
Table: Multinational Market Activity 71
Generic Drugmakers 72
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 73
Company Profile 77
Aspen Pharmacare 77
Adcock Ingram 81
Cipla Medpro 85
GlaxoSmithKline 89
Novartis 93
Pfizer 95
Roche 98
Sanofi 100
Demographic Forecast 103
Demographic Outlook 103
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 104
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 104
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 105
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 105
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 106
Glossary 108
Methodology 110
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 110
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 110
Notes On Methodology 111
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 112
Index Overview 113
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 113
Indicator Weightings 114

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