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South Africa Retail Report Q4 2015

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Economic troubles have taken South Africa's economy to the brink of recession, however, therehas been renewed hope for the retail sector due to steady growth in retail sales at the start of the summer.There has been continued modernisation of the country's urban retail real estate sector and this is helpingto attract international retail groups who are keen to cater to the country's expanding middle class. BothH&M and Krispy Kreme will make their entry into the South African market during the final quarter.

Nevertheless, high levels of unemployment will continue to prevent income growth in a large portion of thepopulation and this will hold back further opportunities for large retailers.Recession looms in South Africa as we enter the final quarter of the year. The economy shrank by 1.3%during the second quarter, however, the economy has shown some sign of improvement during the summerof 2015. This was illustrated by the fact that Power utility company, Eskom marked 30 straight days withoutimposing rolling power cuts during August. A more stable power supply will be important in ensuring thedecline in growth does not continue into the next quarter and this will help elevate both consumer andbusiness confidence. Nonetheless- additional headwinds will linger from the country's endemic level ofunemployment, which stands at 24.2%.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Retail Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (South Africa 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (South Africa 2012-2019) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 16
Retail Sector Forecast 17
Food, Drink and Tobacco 18
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 19
Clothing and Footwear 19
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 20
Household Goods 20
Table: Household Goods Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 21
Personal Care and Effects 21
Table: Personal Care Spending (South Africa 2012-2019) 22
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 22
Table: Household Income Data (South Africa 2012-2019) 24
Table: Labour Market Data (South Africa 2012-2019) 26
Demographic Forecast 27
Table: Total Population (South Africa 2012-2019) 29
Table: Population: Babies (South Africa 2012-2019) 29
Table: Population: Young Children (South Africa 2012-2019) 29
Table: Population: Children (South Africa 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (South Africa 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Young People (South Africa 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (South Africa 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: 21yrs + (South Africa 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Adults (South Africa 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Middle Aged (South Africa 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Urban (South Africa 2012-2019) 32
Macroeconomic Forecasts 33
Economic Analysis 33
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019) 37
Industry Risk Reward Index 38
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Retail Risk/Reward Index 38
South Africa - Risk/Reward Index 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Market Overview 41
Mass Grocery Retail remains strong 42
Department Stores 43
Growing Attraction Of Luxury Brands 43
Increasing Growth Within E-Commerce 43
Competitive Landscape 45
Department Store Groups 45
Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) 46
Fashion 47
Consumer Electronics 48
Glossary 50
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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