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  4. > Turkey Power Report Q4 2015

Turkey Power Report Q4 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We continue to expect Turkey to remain the most attractive power market in the CEE region
this quarter. We foresee power demand in Turkey to be robust over the next decade, given the high levels of investment being channelled into its power sector, the country's capacity expansion plans and its improving economic outlook. There is also considerable political backing for power sector expansion as the government continues to strive for greater energy security and to lower the country's heavy reliance on imports of natural gas through expanding domestic capacity - with renewables and domestically sourced coal leading the way.

Yet, while the outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector is complicated by the county's precarious economic and political position. The need to reduce its reliance on foreign capital, narrow external deficits and rebalance away from private consumption towards more domestic saving and investment will necessitate a period of slower growth. Although the government and central bank have clearly demonstrated an aversion to allowing rebalancing to play out through lower GDP growth rates in the
medium term, we believe this is simply delaying the inevitable. Risks of a more pronounced and rapid fall in headline growth remain high in light of the deterioration in the global macroeconomic outlook for emerging markets that has seen investor confidence suffer and capital inflows dry up. As it stands, our country risk team forecast real GDP growth to be significantly slower over the next few years than the 9.0% average reading recorded in 2010-2011.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Power Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Turkey Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2014-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2019-2024) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 15
Electricity Consumption 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 26
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 26
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 26
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018) 27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024) 27
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 29
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Risks 34
Market Overview 35
Key Policies And Market Structure 35
Regulation And Competition 35
Sustainable Energy Policies 37
Pricing 39
Turkey Power Projects Database 40
Table: Major Projects - Power 40
Competitive Landscape 44
Regional Overview 46
CEE Power Overview 46
Glossary 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms 51
Methodology 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

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