Thailand Power Report Q4 2009

Thailand Power Report Q4 2009

The new Thailand Power Report forecasts that Thailand will account for 1.90% of Asia Pacific regional
power generation by 2013, with a broadly balanced supply/demand picture. BMI’s Asia Pacific power
generation assumption for 2008 is 7,116 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.2% over the
previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,149TWh by 2013, representing a
rise of 28.6%.
Thermal power generation in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,590TWh, accounting for 78.6% of the total
electricity supplied in the Asia Pacific region. Our forecast for 2013 is 7,046TWh, implying 26.0%
growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.0%. This is thanks largely to
environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Thailand’s thermal generation in 2008 was 140TWh, or 2.51% of the regional total. By 2013, the country
is expected to account for 2.33% of thermal generation.
For Thailand, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 42.1% of 2008 primary energy demand (PED),
followed by gas at 38.6%, coal at 17.6% and hydro-electricity with a 1.8% share of PED. Regional energy
demand is forecast to reach 4,862mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 25.1% growth
from the 2008 level. Thailand’s 2008 market share of 2.25% is set to fall to 2.09% by 2013. Thailand’s
6.9TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 9.2TWh by 2013, with its share of the Asia
Pacific hydro market easing from 0.78% to 0.68% over the period. While there is no existing or near-term
nuclear capacity, tentative plans exist for the construction of reactors, but there is no clear government
policy.
Thailand is now ranked ninth above Hong Kong in BMI’s enlarged and updated Power Business
Environment rating, thanks largely to its energy demand, plus moderate scores in most other categories.
The country is at little risk from Hong Kong below it, and has the long-term potential to catch Malaysia
or the Philippines above it.
BMI is now forecasting Thai real GDP growth averaging 2.12% per annum between 2009 and 2013, with
the 2009 estimate being a decline of 3.80%. Population is expected to expand from 64.3mn to 66.2mn
over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 40%
and 11% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated
146TWh in 2008 to 167TWh by the end of the forecast period, requiring some power imports during
periods of peak demand, assuming 3.2% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Thai electricity generation of 44.7%, which is
near the middle of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 22.8% in the 2013-2018 period,
up from 17.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 16.1% in 2008-2013 to 16.5%,
representing 35.3% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 45% between
2008 and 2018, with thermal power generation also forecast to increase by 45% over the same period.
More detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.

Executive Summary ....5
SWOT Analysis............7
Thailand Power Business Environment SWOT ... 7
Thailand Political SWOT... 8
Thailand Economic SWOT. 9
Industry Overview .....10
Global........... 10
Table: Global Summary, 2006-2013... 10
Asia Pacific Region.......... 11
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2006-2013 (TWh) .. 12
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2006-2013 (TWh) ... 13
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2006-2013 (mn toe).... 14
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2006-2013 (bcm) .... 15
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2006-2013 (mn toe)............. 16
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2006-2013 (TWh) 17
Market Overview – Thailand........18
Primary Energy Demand . 18
Power Generation............ 19
Power Consumption......... 20
Regulation And Competition.......... 21
Pricing.......... 22
Power Transmission ........ 22
Business Environment ..23
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings......... 23
Table: Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Rating.... 23
Thailand Power Rating Overview.. 24
Limits Of Potential Returns............ 24
Risks To Realisation Of Returns .... 25
Legal Framework............. 25
Infrastructure 28
Labour Force 29
Foreign Investment Policy ............. 30
Tax Regime ... 31
Security Risk . 32
Industry Forecast Scenario ..........33
Thailand Power Outlook.. 33
Generation.... 33
Gas-Fired ..... 34
Oil-Fired....... 34
Coal-Fired .... 34
Nuclear Energy.. 34
Hydro-Electric ... 35
Renewable Energy ........... 35
Power Costs.. 35
Transmission. 36
Table: Thailand’s Power Sector, 2006-2013 .... 36
Table: Thailand’s Thermal Power Sector. 2006-2013 .... 37
Table: Thailand’s Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2006-2013 . 38
Table: Thailand’s Power Costs, 2006-2013...... 38
Assumptions And Methodology...... 39
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario............. 39
Long-Term Power Outlook ............ 39
Macroeconomic Outlook.. 39
Table: Thailand – Economic Activity, 2005-2013........... 41
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts......42
Global Snapshot. 42
Table: Global Summary, 2011-2018... 42
Regional Outlook............. 42
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2011-2018 (TWh) ........... 43
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2011-2018 (mn toe).... 44
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2011-2018 (TWh) ... 45
Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2011-2018 (TWh).... 46
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2011-2018 (TWh) 47
Thailand Overview........... 47
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts. 47
Competitive Landscape.49
EGAT............ 49
Independent Power (Thailand) ...... 50
Glow Energy. 50
CLP/EGCO... 50
RATCH ......... 51
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data ........52
Section 1: Population....... 52
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030..... 52
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .... 53
Section 2: Education And Healthcare. 53
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ........ 53
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030.. 53
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ............. 54
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006....... 54
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........... 54
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012............ 55
BMI Methodology ......56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ....... 56
Power Industry .. 56
Cross Checks 57
Sources ......... 57