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France Metals Report Q4 2014

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 50 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
France's metals sector is set for an extended period of very modest growth through to the end of our forecast period in 2018, as major producers hold back on investment. Steel will continue to dominate the country's metals industry, but we do not expect any significant new investment. ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto, the two largest producers in the country, are facing an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment, with steel still cheap on a relative basis and aluminium being exported from China. We therefore do not expect France to return to pre-2008 rates of production or consumption before the end of our forecast period to 2018.

Uncertainty surrounds the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which has turned into an increasingly fraught political dispute. By 2013 a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.

Table Of Contents

France Metals Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT . 9
Metals SWOT . 9
Industry Forecast 11
Steel: Weak Growth Outlook As Economy Stalls 11
Demand: Muted Outlook For Infrastructure And Autos . 12
Table: Steel Production and Consumption (France 2010-2018).............................13
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (France 2005-2012)..............................13
Commodities Forecast . 15
Commodity Strategy 15
Ferrous Metals: 16
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight . 16
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up 16
Non-Ferrous Metals: 18
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 18
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 . 19
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 20
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely . 21
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals 22
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely . 24
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts.............................. 26
Commodities Forecast 26
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast........................................ 26
Short-Term Outlook . 26
Core View 27
Surplus Set To Slim . 28
Production: Reining In Growth . 28
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 30
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months . 32
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 32
Risks To Price Outlook 33
Table: Steel Data and Forecasts........................................34
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region and Product, USD/tonne (average).......................... 35
Competitive Landscape 36
Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities..................................... . 36
Table: Largest Listed European Listed Metals Producers............................... 37
Company Profile 40
Rio Tinto . 40
Company Overview . 42
Company Strategy . 43
Latest Financial Results 44
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data.....................................45
ArcelorMittal . 45
Company Overview . 47
Company Strategy . 47
Latest Financial Results 49
Company Details 49
Financial Data . 49
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data.................................... . 49
Methodology 50
Cross Checks . 50

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