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  4. > Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

We have made some minor downwards revisions for the Ukrainian mobile market to accountfor the contractions in H1 2016. We are of the opinion that organic subscriber growth in the market willremain elusive out to 2020. Furthermore, the market faces significant headwinds, ranging from a weakcurrency, low consumer spending ability, market saturation and an uncertain political climate. It is ourview that operators hold a significant number of inactive accounts that will be shed in the coming quarters.Growth and revenues to 2020 and beyond will be driven by 3G and advanced data technology uptake as thenational mobile market begins to advance and mature in technological terms.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments


- The mobile market served 61.152mn subscribers at end of Q216, down by 2.8% y-o-y. We have madefurther minor downwards adjustments to our mobile forecasts and will monitor the market in the monthsahead before making further revisions. We estimate that the mobile market will decline modestly overthe course of our forecast period, out to 2020. By end of 2020, we estimate the mobile market toreach 57.3mn.

- 3G uptake throughout the 2016-2020 period will be strong and will constitute the primary engine ofmobile growth in the mobile market. The real opportunities in this segment lie in content and services.We expect a healthy 3G uptake rate over the course of our present forecast period out to 2020. Byend-2020, our forecast envisages a total of 27.81mn 3G subscribers, up from 5.56mn at YE15.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates And Industry Developments 8
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2020) 14
Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 19
Market Overview 21
Market Drivers And Trends 21
Mobile 21
Table: Ukraine Operator Revenues 2013-2016 (USDmn and UAHmn) 26
Wireline Voice and Broadband 26
Regulatory Development 30
Industry Risks 30
Main Development: 3G Auction and Service Launch 31
Additional Developments 32
Competitive Landscape 34
Table: Ukraine - Key Telecoms Players 34
Mobile Operator Data 34
Table: Mobile Market Overview 34
Table: VimpelCom 35
Table: MTS 37
Table: Lifecell 38
Company Profile 40
Lifecell 40
MTS Ukraine 43
Ukrtelecom 46
VimpelCom (Beeline/Kyivstar) 49
Demographic Forecast 52
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) 53
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) 53
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) 55
Glossary 57
Table: Glossary Of Terms 57
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 63

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