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Zambia Mining Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates



BMI View: Zambia's mining royalty reversal will support the sector's investment outlook. However, bothlow copper and coal prices and the country's high degree of mineral policy uncertainty will continue tolimit the sector's production growth until the country's Presidential elections in 2016.Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- The country's political uncertainty will continue to play a big role in whether future investment willmaterialize. For instance, over the first six months of 2015, the mining code was adjusted three times,increasing uncertainty among existing and potential long-term investors in the sector. In our view, minerswill become increasingly concerned about the uncertain political climate and will limit or halt newprojects from coming online altogether.

- The volatility of power supply in hydropower-reliant countries will also warrant investor caution inenergy intensive sectors across the region. For example, Zambian power supply deficits had a detrimentalimpact on mining operations in the country's Copperbelt (see 'Challenges To Come From All Sides',October 25 2015). Widespread load-shedding in Zambia made power exports politically toxic for theZambian government (see 'Electricity Shortages To Curb Katanga Mining Industry', September 17 2015).Previously, poor rainfall levels over 2014-2015, forced the government to ration water used in powergeneration, reportedly costing the state-owned utility Zesco USD116mn thus far in 2015. Given thathydropower accounts for over 90% of total electricity generation, any fluctuations in the weather willhave a negative impact on Zambian power output (see: 'Eastern Interconnections To Improve EnergySecurity' July 16 2015).

Table Of Contents

Zambia Mining Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Zambia Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020) 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Copper: Major Challenges Ahead 9
Latest Developments 9
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Zambia 2015-2020) 10
Table: Zambia - Major New Copper Projects/ Expansions 10
Structural Trends 11
Table: Zambia: Hydropower Projects 17
Coal: Positive Yet Muted Growth 19
Latest Developments 19
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Zambia 2015-2020) 19
Table: Zambia - Coal Projects 19
Structural Trends 20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 23
Zambia Risk/Reward Index 23
Rewards 23
Risks 23
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 24
Key Takeaways 24
Latest Revisions 25
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Indices 26
Regulatory Development 27
Zambia- Regulatory Development- Policy Uncertainty To Curb Growth 27
Table: Zambia - Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 30
Commodities Forecast 31
Commodities Outlook 31
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 31
Competitive Landscape 33
Table: Zambia Key Players - Comparative Valuation Metrics 34
Company Profile 35
Global Company Strategy - Glencore 35
Table: Selected Commodities - Price Forecasts 37
Company Analysis 37
Table: Glencore - Key Projects 41
Table: Glencore - Key Financial Data 43
Vedanta Resources - Q4 2016 44
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 46
Latest Financial Results 48
Company Strategy 49
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 51
Regional Overview 52
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview 52
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 58
Methodology 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 63

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ref:plp2016

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