Forecast: Enterprise Ethernet services, EMEA

Forecast: Enterprise Ethernet services, EMEA

The enterprise Ethernet services segment is a bright spot in EMEA’s telecom market, which overall faces a retrenchment phase due to the challenging macroeconomic situation. The author expects Ethernet services sales to expand at an 18% compound annual growth rate from 2008 to 2014, driven by substitution from older, slower, and more costly legacy data services. Revenues in 2008 were up strongly, increasing by more than 40% from the year before. Specific growth drivers include T1/E1 replacement, the development of a Gigabit Ethernet community, corporate hub and spoke services, and any-to-any connectivity applications. Ethernet services demand in EMEA is greatest in the UK, France, Germany, and Italy.

Executive summary
Ethernet is a bright light on a cold telecom night
Forecast summary
EMEA enterprise Ethernet service market projected to reach $12 billion in 2014
The author's view
Ethernet services will swim up against the downstream telecom current in 2009
Results for 2008
Impressive 47% growth in EMEA for the year
Long-range market forecast drivers and barriers
Ethernet driven by enterprise demand, applications, and technology substitution
Enterprise demand
Applications
Competitiveness
Technology enablers
Potential inhibitors: economic doldrums, consolidation
Ethernet services segmentation forecasts
Segment highlights include EFM, T1/E1 replacement, the GigE community, EVPL and VPLS segments
Country and regional forecasts
UK leads the way
Spectrum of carrier strategies
Both full-line and niche/point strategies are working
Service mix
Access
Geographic scope
Carrier-grade demarcation
Fiber rollout
Portals
Interconnect approach
Technology platforms
Forecast scenarios and early warning signs
Depth and length of the macroeconomic correction is key to forecast direction




List of Tables
Table 1: EMEA Ethernet services forecast by country ($ millions)
Table 2: The author's synopsis of carrier strategies for Ethernet service offerings






List of figures
Figure 1: EMEA enterprise Ethernet services market forecast ($ millions)
Figure 2: Ethernet service volume forecast by service capacity
Figure 3: Ethernet service revenue forecast by service capacity
Figure 4: EMEA Ethernet service volume forecast by service type
Figure 5: EMEA Ethernet service volume forecast by architecture type