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Botswana Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 33 pages

Core Views
Real GDP growth will be 4.5% in 2014 and 2015, a downwards revision from our previous forecast of 5.2%. Falling diamond exports, diminishing base effects and ongoing power issues will constrain real GDP growth. Botswana will post a diminishing budget surplus amid rising spending and slowing revenue growth. We forecast a surplus equivalent to 0.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2014/15, falling to 0.1% of GDP in 2016/17.

Monetary policy in Botswana will remain accommodative through the close of 2014 and into 2015. Inflation is contained and will continue to be so in the coming months thanks to the pula's appreciation against the rand and slowing domestic economic growth. We predict that Botswana's current account surplus will narrow from 7.0% in 2014 to 5.9% in 2015. Having declined in 2014 we forecast that both goods imports and exports will return to growth in 2015. Political tensions are heightening in Botswana ahead of general elections, scheduled for October 24. Although we expect the incumbent Botswana Democratic Party to win, the contest is likely to be closer than in previous votes. There is also increasing risk of electoral violence.

Table Of Contents

Botswana Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views..5
Key Risks To Outlook..5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis. 7
BMI Political Risk Index.. 7
Domestic Politics 8
Tensions Will Mount As Election Approaches.8
Political tensions are heightening in Botswana ahead of general elections, scheduled for October 24. Although we expect the incumbent
Botswana Democratic Party to win, the contest is likely to be closer than in previous votes. There is also increasing risk of electoral
violence.
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
An Incomplete Miracle.9
Botswana's status as one of the most stable and politically progressive countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to endure for the
foreseeable future. While we see the potential for political or social upheaval as minimal, over the next decade the government will come
under mounting pressure to address the country's extreme inequality as well as facing the prospect of a reinvigorated opposition.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook. 11
SWOT Analysis.. 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
Economic Activity .. 12
Diamonds Weighing Heavily On Growth12
Real GDP growth will be 4.5% in 2014 and 2015, a downwards revision from our previous forecast of 5.2%. Falling diamond exports,
diminishing base effects and ongoing power issues will constrain real GDP growth.
TABLE: Economic Activity12
Fiscal Policy. 14
Budget Surplus Narrowing As Wages Rise.14
Botswana will post a diminishing budget surplus amid rising spending and slowing revenue growth. We forecast a surplus equivalent to
0.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2014/15, falling to 0.3% of GDP in 2016/17.
TABLE: Fiscal Policy.15
Monetary Policy. 16
Accommodative Policy To Be Maintained16
Monetary policy in Botswana will remain accommodative through the close of 2014 and into 2015. Inflation is contained and will continue
to be so in the coming months thanks to the pula's appreciation against the rand and slowing domestic economic growth.
TABLE: Monetary Policy..16
Balance Of Payments. 17
Current Account Surplus Will Narrow.17
We predict that Botswana's current account surplus will narrow from an estimated 7.0% in 2014 to 5.4% in 2015. Having decline d in
2014 we forecast that both goods imports and exports will return to growth in 2015.
TABLE: Current Account17
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast. 19
The Botswanan Economy To 2023. 19
Long-Term Prospects Still Positive..19
Despite ongoing efforts by the government to diversify Botswana's economy away from a heavy reliance on diamonds, we believe the
precious stone will remain the mainstay of the southern African country's economy over the foreseeable future.
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts19
Chapter 4: Operational Risk. 21
Operational Risk Ratings. 21
Operational Risk .. 22
TABLE: Operational Risk..22
Transport Network 23
TABLE: Sub Sahara n Africa - Tra nsport Networ k Ris k.24
Economic Openness.. 27
TABLE: Sub Sahara n Africa - Eco nomic Ope nnes Ris k..28
TABLE: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Exports (USDmn), 2007-2013 29
TABLE: Top 5 Product Imported (USD mn), 2007-2013..29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions.. 31
Global Outlook 31
Big Emerging Market Revisions.31
Table: Global Assumptions.31
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %..32
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %.. 32
Table : Emergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %.33

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