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Estonia Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views
Although Estonia's current account flipped into surplus in Q214, the positive balance will not be experienced for long with EU economic sanctions on Russia suppressing exports and the accelerating economic recovery boosting import levels. The deficit will remain manageable in 2015 and 2016, with the services account set to remain a significant positive contributor.

The Estonian Reform Party is on course to retain first place in the March 2015 general election, boosted by its competent economic management and the hard line taken with Russia during the Ukraine crisis. The identity of the junior coalition partner is more uncertain with three parties competing for second spot, and a fractious election
campaign could result in more aggressive political discourse following the vote.

The economy has turned the corner and will post relatively strong real GDP growth over the next two years. Rising domestic demand will more than offset lower export growth, as relations with Russia remain strained. Estonia's economic recovery help the country's budget deficit remains within EU Maastricht criteria limits. Rising revenue will cancel out the impact of a pre-election tax cut and an escalation in defence spending, amidst potential Russian aggression on Estonia's eastern border.

Table Of Contents

Estonia Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views..5
Key Risks To Outlook..5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis. 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings. 7
Domestic Politics 8
Reform Party To Retain Coalition Leadership..8
The Estonian Reform Party is on course to retain first place in the March 2015 general election, boosted by its competent economic
management and the hard line taken with Russia during the Ukraine crisis. The identity of the junior coalition partner is more uncertain
with three parties competing for second spot, and a fractious election campaign could result in more aggressive political discourse
following the vote.
TABLE: Political Overview8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Few Risks To Structural Stability Over Long Term.9
Estonia is among the most structurally stable countries among the emerging markets, as reflected in its very high 84.8 (out of 100) BMI
long-term political risk rating. Having fully converged to all major multilateral European institutions (European Union, European Monetary
Union and Schengen Agreement), Estonia will continue to benefit from a strong policy anchor and high degree of institutional capacity
over the long run. The country's often fractious relationship with neighbouring Russia, undermined by domestic divisions between ethnic
Estonian and ethnic Russians, presents the one key risk to stability.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook. 13
SWOT Analysis.. 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings.. 13
External Headwinds Too Weak To Constrain Growth.14
Estonia's economy has turned the corner and will post relatively strong real GDP growth over the next two years. Rising domestic
demand will more than offset lower export growth, as relations with Russia remain strained.
TABLE: Economic Acti vit y14
Fiscal Policy. 16
Economic Recovery To Keep Finances In Check.16
Estonia's economic recovery help the country's budget deficit remains within EU Maastricht criteria limits. Rising revenue will cancel out
the impact of a pre-election tax cut and an escalation in defence spending, amidst potential Russian aggression on Estonia's eastern
border.
TABLE: Fiscal Policy.16
Balance Of Payments. 17
Current Account Surplus Not Here To Stay.17
Estonia's current account will return to deficit in 2015 with EU economic sanctions on Russia suppressing exports and the accelerating
economic recovery boosting import levels. However, the deficit will not widen significantly in 2015 and 2016, with the services account
set to remain a notable positive contributor.
TABLE: Bala nce Of Payme nts 17
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast. 19
The Estonian Economy To 2023. 19
Trend Growth To Average Lower In 2017-2023..19
Trend average growth in Estonia is forecast to average 2. 8% between 2017-202 3, well below the 7.6% from 2001-2007. That said, we
stress that the worst effects of the 2008-2010 recession are now passed and the economy is well positioned for sustainable long-term
growth.
TABLE: Long-Term Macr oec onomic Forecasts 19
Chapter 4: Operational Risk. 21
Operational Risk Ratings. 21
Operational Risk 22
Table : Devel oped States - Lab our Mar ket Ris k.22
Table : Devel oped States - Logistics Ris k25
Table : Devel oped States - Crime And Securit y Ris ks27
Table : Devel oped States - Trade And Investme nt Ris k30
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 33
Shipping. 33
TABLE: Major Port Data 34
TABLE: Trade Overview.35
Other Key Sectors 41
Table : Aut os Sect or Ke y Indicat ors .41
Table : Infrastructure Sect or Ke y Indicat ors ..41
Table : Food and Dri nk Sect or Ke y Indicat ors .41
Table : Pharma Sect or Ke y Indicat ors .42
Table : Telec oms Sect or Ke y Indicat ors 42
Table : Freight Ke y Indicat ors ..42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions.. 43
Global Outlook 43
Big Emerging Market Revisions.43
Table : Global Assumpti ons.43
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP GrowtH, %..44
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOO MBERG CON SENSUS REAL GDP GROW TH FORECASTS, %.. 44
Table : Emergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %.45

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