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Iran Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 61 pages

Core Views
Recent improvements in relations with the West bode well for the country’s economy. That said, uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme will ensure that risks to the outlook remain elevated. The economy is set to return to growth in 2014 and 2015, as improving relations with the West and better macroeconomic management, coupled with low base effects, will lead to an improved outlook for exports and increased business and consumer confidence. D ownside pressure on the Iranian rial will remain prominent, and the unit will remain sensitive to developments in nuclear negotiations over the coming quarters.

Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, and are projecting the economy to expand by 2.8% in real terms in 2014, up from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth.

Table Of Contents

Iran Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views..5
Major Forecast Changes.5
Key Risks To Outlook..5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis. 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings. 7
Domestic Politics 8
Permanent' Nuclear Deal To Remain Elusive 8
Talks between Iran and the P5+1 countries on the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme will continue through 2015 and 2016 without
reaching a 'permanent' agreement. Risks of reaching a final deal over the coming decade are tilted slightly to the downside owing to
significant political obstacles.
Table: Political Overview8
Table: Possible Scenarios Over The Next Two Years.9
Long-Term Political Outlook. 10
Incomplete Regime Transformation By 2020's..10
We expect partial 'regime transformation' in Iran by the 2020s, as the ruling elite seeks to pre-empt the possibility of mass unrest.
Relations with the West will improve only modestly, and risks of reaching a final agreement on the nuclear programme are tilted slightly
to the downside.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook. 15
SWOT Analysis.. 15
BMI Economic Risk Ratings.. 15
Economic Activity 16
Modest Expansion In 2015.16
The Iranian economy will expand modestly over the coming years, and we project real GDP growth of 2.8% and 2.9% in 2014 and 2015,
respectively. Foreign direct investment by Western companies will remain minimal next year owing to the failure to reach a breakthrough
in talks on the nuclear programme.
Table: Economic Activity16
Monetary Policy. 18
Inflationary Environment Improving In 2015..18
Inflation in Iran will be lower in Q414 and 2015 than in 2013, a result of high base effects, improving macroeconomic conditions and
the government's efforts to tackle inflation. This will contribute to providing President Hassan Rouhani with enough public support to
continue talks on the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme.
Table: Monetary Policy..19
Exchange Rate Policy .. 20
IR: Gradual Depreciation In 2015 And 2016.20
Downside pressures on the value of the Iranian rial will remain prominent over the coming years on the back of elevated inflation,
a worsening external position and slow economic growth. This will result in continued depreciation of the value of the unit in the
unregulated market, while monetary authorities will gradually devalue the currency on the official market.
table: Exchange Rate20
Table: BMI Currency Forecast.20
Banking Sector.. 21
Banking Sector: Outlook Improving Markedly..21
Declining inflation and an improving macroeconomic environment will boost the outlook for Iranian banks in H214 and 2015, and the
industry will return to growth this year. That said, profitability will remain low due to the elevated non-performing loan ratio and the
dominance of highly leveraged state-owned banks.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast. 23
The Iranian Economy To 2023.. 23
Sanctions To Cloud Economic Outlook.23
The inability to fully exploit Iran's enormous oil and gas wealth and a challenging operational environment will lead to slow economic
growth over the next 10 years. A 'permanent' nuclear deal with the West will be elusive, contributing to significant challenges for foreign
firms willing to enter the market.
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk. 25
Operational Risk Ratings. 25
Operational Risk 26
Table: Operational Risk..26
Transport Network 27
Table: Transport Network Risks..28
Economic Openness.. 31
Table: Economic Openness Risk..31
Table: Top Five Trade Partners Product Imports, (USDmn) ..32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 35
Oil and Gas 35
Table: Oil Production And Net Exports.36
Table: Oil Production And Net Exports.37
Infrastructure.. 50
Other Key Sectors 57
table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators.57
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators57
table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators..57
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators.58
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators.58
table: Freight Key Indicators..58
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions.. 59
Global Outlook 59
Big Emerging Market Revisions.59
Table: Global Assumptions.59
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %..60
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %.. 60
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %.61

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