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Australia Metals Report Q4 2014

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 61 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
We expect subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals in Australia as a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak.

The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by monthly crude steel production, which has continued to slide into negative territory following growth in 2013. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in H214 and 2015. We do not expect crude to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), have embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and declining steel prices.

Table Of Contents

Australia Metals Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Metals SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate . 11
Table: Steel Production and Consumption (Australia 2010-2018).. 15
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Australia 2005-2012) 15
Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 .. 16
Table: Aluminium Production and Consumption (Australia 2010-2018)..19
Nickel: Future Lies In Queensland Nickel's Hands . 20
Table: Refined Nickel Production . 23
Regulatory Development .. 24
Tax Regime 24
Table: Australia - Political Summary.. . 25
Commodities Forecast . 26
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast. 26
Short-Term Outlook 26
Core View . 27
Surplus Set To Slim 27
Production: Reining In Growth . 28
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead 30
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months 32
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West 32
Risks To Price Outlook 33
Table: Steel Data and Forecasts.34
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region and Product, USD/tonne (average).. 34
Commodity Strategy . 36
Ferrous Metals: . 36
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight . 36
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up .. 37
Non-Ferrous Metals: .. 39
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength 39
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314 40
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens 41
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely . 42
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals .. 43
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely . 45
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 47
Competitive Landscape 48
Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers49
Company Profile 50
Arrium 50
Table: Arrium Ltd - Financial Data..53
Rio Tinto 54
Company Overview 56
Company Strategy .. 57
Latest Financial Results .. 58
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data.60
Methodology .. 61
Cross Checks 61

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