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  4. > Brazil Power Report Q4 2016

Brazil Power Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

, With the economy returning to growth in 2017 and the government committed to attracting investment in the power and renewables sectors, the Brazilian electricity market will offer opportunities to project developers and power sector investors. Wind, solar and natural gas will present the biggest potential to international investors, but we see opportunities also in power transmission and distribution via public tenders and the acquisition of local distribution companies. That said, weak power consumption and delays in project implementation due to high financing and import costs will remain pertinent issues over the coming quarters.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- The constrained financing environment and currency slump that characterized Brazil's economic recession in 2015-2016 are having an impact on the growth outlook of the country's power sector. In August it was reported that the Brazilian government is likely to cancel the 2016 A-3 auction for new power projects, after delaying a reserve auction for wind and solar to December. Moreover, it is reportedly considering cancelling power purchase agreements for some solar and natural gas projects contracted in 2014-2015 that are unlikely to be developed under current macroeconomic conditions, in order to allow them to participate in future auctions.

- Despite current hurdles, we believe Brazil will offer opportunities for power project developers over the coming quarters, particularly in the renewables sector. Due to the risk that contracted projects do not come online as scheduled, the government is planning to hold a number of auctions in 2017 to secure power supply over the next few years. The large number of solar and wind projects registered to compete in the December auction indicates that investor appetite for the market is still significant.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Brazil Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Brazil Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Results For Gas-Fired Projects In Latest Power Auctions 14
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 21
Table: Solar and Wind Capacity Registered And Contracted In Recent And Upcoming Auctions 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 27
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 30
Transmission and Distribution 30
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 33
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 34
Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
LatAm Risk Reward Index (RRI): Macroeconomic Dynamics Weighing On Outlook 35
Brazil Power Risk/Reward Index 42
Rewards 42
Risks 43
Market Overview 44
Key Policies And Market Structure 44
Regulation And Competition 44
Sustainable Energy Policies 46
Pricing 46
Table: Tariff Surcharges Before And After Reduction 47
Brazil Power Projects Database 48
Competitive Landscape 51
Eletrobras 51
Engie 53
Company Profile 55
Eletrobrás 55
Regional Overview 60
LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 60
Table: BMI'S Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 63
Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector 63
Glossary 67
Table: Glossary Of Terms 67
Methodology 68
Methodology And Sources 68
Industry Forecast Methodology 68
Sources 71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 71
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 73

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