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Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View: Improvements in the refining sector have boosted refined fuels production, though 2016 is proving to be tougher with margins expected to drop. The restart of exploration in the Black Sea is positive for Bulgaria's oil and gas sector, which has suffered from heavy production declines in 2015.

The main trends and developments in Bulgaria's oil and gas sector are:
- Total has started drilling in the Black Sea Khan-Asparuh block in mid-2016. Results are expected by the autumn of 2016.
- A third well (Kaliakra-3) is being planned at the Kaliakra field to maintain output, given heavy declines from Kaliakra-1.
- Gasoline and diesel production increased over 20% in 2015 following the completion of Lukoil's new heavy residue complex.
- Gasoline and diesel consumption increased around 3-4% over 2015, supported by low prices.
- A much-delayed 25km reverse flow interconnector gas pipeline between Romania and Bulgaria will come online this year. The pipeline will have maximum capacity of 1.5bcm per year in the Bulgaria-Romania direction, and 0.5bcm capacity in the reverse direction.

Table Of Contents

Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bulgaria 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 9
Upstream Production - Oil 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 12
Table: Oil Production (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 12
Upstream Production - Gas 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 15
Table: Gas Production (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 15
Refining 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 18
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 18
Refined Fuels Consumption 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 21
Gas Consumption 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Consumption (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 23
Trade - Oil 23
Latest Updates 23
Crude Oil 23
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2014-2020) 24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 25
Refined Fuels 25
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 27
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bulgaria 2020-2025) 29
Industry Risk Reward Index 30
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 30
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 30
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 31
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 34
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 34
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 37
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Index 38
Market Overview 40
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview 40
Regulatory Structure 40
Fiscal Regime 41
Table: Bulgaria Petroleum Taxes 41
Licensing Rounds 41
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 42
Oil Refineries 42
Table: Refineries In Bulgaria 42
Service Stations 42
Table: Major Fuel Retailers In Bulgaria 42
Oil Storage Facilities 43
Oil Terminals/Ports 43
Gas Storage Facilities 43
Gas Pipelines 43
Competitive Landscape 46
Competitive Landscape Summary 46
Table: Key Players In The Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector 47
Table: Key Upstream Players 47
Table: Key Downstream Players 47
Company Profile 48
Lukoil Neftekhim 48
Table: Key Financial Data (USD) 49
Shell Bulgaria 50
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Bulgaria 51
Key Financial Data (USD) 51
Total 52
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Bulgaria 52
Table: Key Financial Data (USD) 53
Regional Overview . 54
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 54
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 54
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 55
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 56
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 57
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 58
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 59
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 60
Glossary 61
Table: Glossary Of Terms 61
Methodology . 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Source 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 65
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 67
Table: Weighting 68

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