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  5. > Canada Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 137 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:
We maintain our modest growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid a low commodity price environment. The greatest threats are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production beyond 2018, much-needed midstream expansions and LNG terminal development. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies reduce capital expenditures.
Latest Updates And Key Forecast
s

- We maintain our Canadian crude production forecast this quarter. The wildfires which surrounded Fort McMurray posed a limited threat to the sector's continued growth, with capacity gains continuing through 2018 on the back of a strong upstream project pipeline.

- We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada following given sustained weakness of commodity prices. This, combined with insufficient pipeline takeaway capacity, will join with the government's stronger environmental mandate to undermine proposed upstream and midstream developments.

Table Of Contents

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta 15
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Canada - Key Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Oil Sands Commercial Breakeven Costs, USD/BBL 30
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2014-2019) 33
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2020-2025) 33
Upstream Production - Gas 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2014-2019) 39
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2020-2025) 39
Refining 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2014-2019) 43
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2020-2025) 43
Refined Fuels Consumption 44
Latest Trends 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2014-2019) 47
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2020-2025) 47
Gas Consumption 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 48
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2014-2019) 51
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2020-2025) 51
Trade - Oil 52
Crude Oil 52
Latest Updates 52
Structural Trends 52
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2014-2020) 56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 56
Refined Fuels 56
Latest Updates 56
Structural Trends 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019) 58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 58
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 59
Latest Updates 59
Structural Trends 59
Table: Canadian Key LNG Export Projects 62
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019) 63
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 64
Industry Risk/Reward Index 65
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 65
Table: North America and Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 65
Upstream Rankings: Resource Base Will Keep North America Well Ahead 66
Resource Limitations Take Toll On Western Europe 67
Table: North America and Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 69
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead 69
Table: North America and Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index 71
Canada - Risk/Reward Index 72
Upstream Index 72
Downstream Index 73
Market Overview 74
Canada Energy Market Overview 74
State Role 75
Licensing And Regulation 76
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime 81
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 84
Oil Refineries 84
Table: Downstream Projects 84
Service Stations 88
Oil Pipelines 88
LNG Regasification Terminals 94
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 95
Gas Pipelines 102
Gas Service Stations 104
Competitive Landscape 105
Competitive Landscape Summary 105
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector 107
Table: Key Upstream Players 107
Table: Key Downstream Players 108
Company Profile 109
Suncor 109
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada 110
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 111
Encana 112
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada 113
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 113
Imperial Oil 115
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada 116
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 116
Regional Overview 117
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 117
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025 126
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025 128
Glossary 130
Table: Glossary Of Terms 130
Methodology 132
Industry Forecast Methodology 132
Source 134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 134
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 136
Table: Weighting 137

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