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  5. > Canada Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 181 pages

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry remains modest given mountingheadwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid a lower oil price environment. The greatestthreats to these projects are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper thegrowth of oil sands-driven production and LNG terminal development, weighing on total hydrocarbonoutput. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage ascompanies revise capital expenditures in the coming years, with reserves likely to suffer as a result.

The main trends and developments in Canada's oil and gas sector are:
- Canada's proven oil reserves are expected to trend lower from 172.0bn bbl at the beginning of 2015 to167.9bn bbl by 2019 due to a slowdown in oil sands investment. We expect reserves to steadily declinethereafter due to lower upstream activity on the back of sustained lower oil prices.
- Proven gas reserves will increase from 2.04tcm at the beginning of 2015 to 2.03tcm in 2018 asexploration activity begins to decline. From 2019 thereafter, reserves will experience steadygrowth through the remainder of our forecast period, reaching 2.2tcm by 2024.

Table Of Contents

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2013-2018) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2019-2024) 11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta 15
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Canada Key Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 24
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2013-2018) 24
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2019-2024) 24
Upstream Production - Gas 31
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2013-2018) 31
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2019-2024) 31
Refining 35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2013-2018) 35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2019-2024) 35
Refined Fuels Consumption 38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2013-2018) 38
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2019-2024) 38
Gas Consumption 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2013-2018) 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2019-2024) 40
Trade - Oil 42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018) 42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024) 42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018) 45
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024) 45
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2013-2018) 46
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2019-2024) 47
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018) 48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024) 48
Table: Major LNG Projects In Canada 52
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 54
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 54
Table: North America and Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 54
Table: Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 55
Wide North America / Western Europe Upstream Gap To Remain 56
North America: Canada Losing Its Edge 56
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook 57
Downstream: US Comes Out Top 59
Table: Oil and Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index 59
Canada - Risk/Reward Index 62
Canada Upstream Index - Overview 62
Canada Upstream Index - Rewards 62
Canada Upstream Index - Risks 62
Canada Downstream Index - Overview 63
Market Overview 64
Canada Energy Market Overview 64
Overview/State Role 65
Licensing And Regulation 66
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime 70
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 73
Oil Refineries 73
Table: Downstream Projects 73
Service Stations 77
Oil Pipelines 77
LNG Regasification Terminals 83
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 84
Gas Pipelines 90
Gas Service Stations 93
Competitive Landscape 94
Competitive Landscape Summary 94
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector 96
Table: Key Upstream Players 96
Table: Key Downstream Players 97
Company Profile 98
Suncor 98
Shell Canada 103
Encana 110
Other Summaries 116
Regional Overview 140
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 140
Global Industry Overview 151
Global Energy Market Overview 151
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates and NGLs Production ('000b/d) 151
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 154
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 155
Appendix 157
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts 157
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) 157
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) 158
North America Regional Appendix 160
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 160
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 160
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 161
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 161
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 161
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 162
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 162
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 162
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 163
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 163
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 163
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 164
Canada - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts 165
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018) 165
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024) 165
Canada - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts 166
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018) 166
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024) 167
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018) 168
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024) 169
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2013-2018) 171
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2019-2024) 171
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2013-2018) 172
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2019-2024) 173
Glossary 174
Table: Glossary Of Terms 174
Methodology 176
Industry Forecast Methodology 176
Source 178
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 178
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 180
Table: Weighting 181

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