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  4. > Chile Power Report Q4 2016

Chile Power Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Chile's power market will be one of the most attractive and dynamic in Latin America over thenext few years, owing to the country's stable business environment and investor-friendly regulations, a solidmacroeconomic outlook and robust growth in power consumption. The government's use of energy auctionsfor the regulated market, coupled with energy demand from miners located far from the main powernetwork, will create long-term business opportunities for power generators. Meanwhile, the need to expandChile's power grid will drive demand for transmission and distribution infrastructure.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- Our view that the Chilean power market will be one of the most dynamic in Latin America over thecoming years, as well as our bullish growth outlook for renewables in the country, was reinforced by theresults of Chile's latest power auction. Finalised in August 2016, the auction saw 84 domestic andinternational firms compete for power purchase agreements, with contracted companies expected to startsupplying power in 2021 and 2022. The average price per bid at the auction was USD47.59/MWh -significantly lower than the USD79.34/MWh registered at the previous auction. The government expectsthis to translate into lower electricity bills for household and businesses in Chile starting from 2021.

- Companies bidding with renewable energy projects obtained more than 50% of the 12.430 terawatt hours(TWh) that the government was looking to secure in order to satisfy the demand of clients of the SIC andSING central and northern power grids. As a result, we have upgraded our forecasts for renewablespower capacity and generation, driven by a stronger than expected expansion of wind power. The rest ofthe power will be supplied by utility Endesa Chile, via existing power plants (currently undisclosed).

- Conversely, as new gas-fired power projects failed to win any contracts at the auction, we havedowngraded our long-term forecast for Chile's gas-fired power generation growth, although we continueto expect gas to increase its share in the country's power mix over the coming decade. Competitivelypriced renewables capacity will represent a hurdle for the contracting of new natural gas-fired powerplants in Chile's upcoming power auctions. In order to mitigate this problem and contributing to its longtermgoal of boosting the role of natural gas in Chile's energy mix, the government could implementchanges in future auctions to boost gas plants' competitiveness.

Table Of Contents

Chile Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Chile 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Chile Snaphot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Chile Forecast Scenario 12
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Natural Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Table: Chile's Major Hydropower Project Pipeline 19
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 22
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2014-2019) 22
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2020-2025) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2020-2025) 24
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2020-2025) 25
Transmission and Distribution 26
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2014-2019) 29
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2020-2025) 29
Industry Risk/Reward Index 30
LatAm Risk and Reward Index (RRI): Macroeconomic Dynamics Weighing On Outlook 30
Chile Power Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 37
Market Overview 39
Key Policies And Market Structure 39
Regulation And Competition 39
Sustainable Energy Policies 41
Pricing 41
Chile Power Projects Database 42
Competitive Landscape 45
Transelec 45
Enersis 46
ENAP 46
Engie 47
AES 48
Colbún 48
Pacific Hydro 48
Others 49
Company Profile 50
Enersis 50
Regional Overview 53
LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 53
Table: BMI'S Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 56
Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector 56
Glossary 60
Table: Glossary Of Terms 60
Methodology 61
Methodology And Sources 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sources 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66

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