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Iran Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 89 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates



BMI View: Gas production and consumption will see a substantial ramp-up in 2016/17 due to new phasesof South Pars increasing gas availability. We see marginal further upside to oil production and exports,with shipments in June at 2.3mn b/d, some 1.2mn b/d higher than under sanctions.We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

- The final version of the Iranian Petroleum Contract was approved by the Resistance EconomyHeadquarters, though hardliner opposition remains strong. Oil minister Bijan Zanganeh expects it to bepassed by the end of the summer.

- According to our estimates compile from customs import agencies, Iranian crude exports reached 2.3mnb/d in June.

- Production from phase 1 of the Yadavaran field (85,000b/d) has reportedly started, while a second phaseexpansion adding 95,000b/d is being discussed with Sinopec.

- 75,000b/d of new production is due to be was launched from the CNPC-led North Azadegan field inApril. Output is currently at 75,000b/d.

- Phases 17, 18 and 19 of South Pars are currently operating at half capacity (around 20bcm) and could addanother 20bcm of gas if ramped up.

- Phases 17 and 18 of South Pars also add 80,000b/d of condensate production.

- The Persian Gulf Star refinery was reportedly 86% complete in January 2016, and the first phase of120,000b/d is due to be completed by the end of the Iranian year (March 2017).

- The Tabriz refinery is due to add a desulphurisation unit, enabling Euro-V diesel production. Nocontractor has yet been chosen.

Table Of Contents

Iran Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
OIl and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 12
Upstream Projects 14
Table: New Projects Expected To Be Offered Post-Sanctions 14
Table: Iran Major Upstream Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: New Oil Projects On Offer 22
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2014-2019) 23
Table: Oil Production (Iran 2020-2025) 23
Upstream Production - Gas 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: South Pars Project Phases 26
Table: Gas Projects Proposed Under The IPC 26
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Production (Iran 2020-2025) 28
Refining 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Major Iranian Refineries 30
Table: Modernisation Projects 33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iran 2020-2025) 33
Refined Fuels Consumption 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Approximate Gasoline and Diesel Costs 36
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iran 2020-2025) 37
Gas Consumption 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2014-2019) 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2020-2025) 40
Trade - Oil 41
Crude Trade Forecasts 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2014-2020) 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025) 44
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2014-2019) 46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025) 46
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 47
Latest Updates 47
Structural Trends 47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2014-2019) 50
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2020-2025) 51
Industry Risk/Reward Index 52
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 52
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 52
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 53
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 53
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 55
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 55
Iran - Risk/Reward Index 58
Upstream Index - Rewards 58
Upstream Index - Risks 58
Iran Downstream Index - Overview 58
Market Overview 60
Iran Energy Market Overview 60
Overview 60
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil and Gas Sector 60
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector 60
Fiscal Regime 61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 63
Oil Refineries 63
Table: Refineries In Iran 63
Service Stations 64
Oil Storage Facilities 64
Oil Terminals/Ports 64
Oil Pipelines 65
Gas Pipelines 65
Table: Major Proposed Pipelines 66
Gas Storage Facilities 66
Table: Operation, Under Construction and Planned Gas Storage 66
Competitive Landscape 67
Company Profile 68
NIOC 68
Latest Updates 68
Company Overview 69
Table: Major NIOC Subsidiaries 69
Table: Fields Proposed Under The New IPC 70
Regional Overview 72
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 72
Oil Production: Output On Upward Trajectory 72
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand 75
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 and March 2016 (USD/Litre) 75
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete 77
Gas Production: Upstream Focus Swaying To Gas 78
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Drive Demand 80
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 81
Glossary 82
Table: Glossary Of Terms 82
Methodology 84
Industry Forecast Methodology 84
Source 86
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 86
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 88
Table: Weighting 89

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