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Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates



BMI View: Major oilfield expansion projects in Iraq will be an important source of low-cost oil productionto meet future demand. We expect continued growth in output from 2017.Natural gas imports from Iranstarting in 2016 will play a significant role in meeting demand from the power sector, while exports are setfrom the KRG to Turkey in 2019.We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

- H116 oil production in Iraq has averaged 4.267mn b/d, with 3.256mn b/d exported from Basra and0.467mn b/d from the KRG.

- The government has reportedly come to an agreement with BP, Shell and Lukoil to restart investment toincrease output from their major fields. This should support around 250,000b/d of new production in2017.

- Halfaya phase III is reportedly close to sanction, increasing output from 200,000b/d to 400,000b/d by2018.

- Exxon & PetroChina are reportedly in talks with the government to boost production from the Nahr Umrand Artawi oil fields.

- An attack on the Bai Hassan oil field and a second site in Northern Iraq has taken out approximately75,000b/d from two well sites.

- Shell supplied associated gas from its Majnoon field to the power sector for the first time in February, ata rate of around 715mn cubic metres per year.

- Genel is expecting the field development plan for the Miran/Bina Bawi development to be approved inQ216.

- Gas delivery from Iran to three gas power plants in Sadr, Baghdad and Al-Mansouriyah is due to begin inH216. Initially at 5-7Mcm/d, deliveries could rise to 25-35Mcm/d.

Table Of Contents

Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Kurdistan Blocks And Operator 13
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Iraq - Major Upstream Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2014-2019) 22
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2020-2025) 23
Upstream Production - Gas 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2014-2019) 26
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2020-2025) 26
Refining 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2020-2025) 29
Refined Fuels Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2020-2025) 33
Gas Consumption 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Oil 37
Latest Updates 37
Crude Oil Trade Outlook 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Basra Splits 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2020) 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025) 39
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025) 42
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019) 45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025) 45
Industry Risk Reward Index 46
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 47
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 49
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 49
Iraq - Risk/Reward Index 52
Market Overview 53
Iraq Energy Market Overview 53
Regulatory Structure 53
Fiscal Regime 53
Table: Federal Government Technical Service Agreements 53
Table: KRG Production Sharing Agreements 54
Licensing Regime 54
Licensing Rounds 54
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009) 54
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009) 55
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010) 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 57
Oil Refineries 57
Table: Iraqi Refineries 57
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq 58
Oil Terminals/Ports 58
Oil Pipelines 59
Table: Major Iraqi Pipelines 59
Gas Pipelines 59
Regional Overview 61
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 61
Oil Production: Output On Upward Trajectory 61
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand 64
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 and March 2016 (USD/Litre) 64
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete 66
Gas Production: Upstream Focus Swaying To Gas 67
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Drive Demand 69
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 70
Glossary 71
Table: Glossary Of Terms 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Source 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 75
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 77
Table: Weighting 78

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