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Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 168 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The APC administration will partially reduce crude theft and instability in the NigerDelta, marginally improving production consistency. We do not expect the PIB to be passed over thecoming one to two years. This will see continued regulatory uncertainty in Nigeria, supporting our view fora stagnation in oil output over the coming years. Nigerian oil production will increase slightly from 2.40mnbarrels per day (b/d) in 2014 to 2.48mn b/d by 2020, based on sanctioned projects.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Nigeria's oil and gas sector are as follows:

-A decline in proven oil reserves demonstrates the impact of lower levels of exploration activity in thecountry since 2005. Exploration will remain slow without significant improvements in regulatorycertainty and the security situation.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Nigeria 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Nigeria 2013-2018) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Nigeria 2019-2024) 11
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Upstream Project Database 15
Upstream Production - Oil 19
Table: Oil Production (Nigeria 2013-2018) 19
Table: Oil Production (Nigeria 2019-2024) 19
The New Buhari Administration 23
Upstream Production - Gas 27
Table: Gas Production (Nigeria 2013-2018) 27
Table: Gas Production (Nigeria 2019-2024) 27
Refining 32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Nigeria 2013-2018) 32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Nigeria 2019-2024) 33
Refined Fuels Consumption 38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Nigeria 2013-2018) 38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Nigeria 2019-2024) 38
Gas Consumption 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Nigeria 2013-2018) 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Nigeria 2019-2024) 40
Trade - Oil 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Nigeria 2013-2018) 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Nigeria 2019-2024) 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Nigeria 2013-2018) 47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Nigeria 2019-2024) 48
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Nigeria 2013-2018) 49
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Nigeria 2019-2024) 50
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 50
Table: Gas Net Exports (Nigeria 2013-2018) 50
Table: Gas Net Exports (Nigeria 2019-2024) 51
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 57
Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 57
Table: BMI's Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 57
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 60
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 60
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 63
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 63
Nigeria - Risk/Reward Index 65
Market Overview 67
Nigeria Energy Market Overview 67
Overview/State Role 67
The New Buhari Administration 71
Licensing Rounds 73
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 73
Oil Refineries 73
Oil Terminals/Ports 78
LNG Terminals 78
Table: LNG Projects In Nigeria 81
Gas Pipelines 82
Competitive Landscape 84
Competitive Landscape Summary 84
Table: Key Players - Nigerian Oil and Gas Sector 85
Table: Nigeria Upstream Players 86
Table: Nigeria Downstream Players 86
Company Profile 87
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) 87
Afren 91
ExxonMobil 94
Eni 99
Total 104
Chevron 109
Royal Dutch Shell 114
Other Summaries 119
Regional Overview 126
Africa Oil and Gas Regional Overview 126
Global Industry Overview 134
Global Energy Market Overview 134
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates and NGLs Production ('000b/d) 134
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 137
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 138
Appendix 140
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts 140
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018) 140
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024) 141
Africa - Regional Appendix 142
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 142
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 143
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 144
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 145
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 146
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 147
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 148
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 148
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 149
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 150
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 151
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 152
Nigeria - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts 153
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Nigeria 2013-2018) 153
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Nigeria 2019-2024) 154
Nigeria - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts 154
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Nigeria 2013-2018) 154
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Nigeria 2019-2024) 156
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Nigeria 2013-2018) 157
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Nigeria 2019-2024) 158
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Nigeria 2013-2018) 159
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Nigeria 2019-2024) 160
Glossary 161
Table: Glossary Of Terms 161
Methodology 163
Industry Forecast Methodology 163
Source 165
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 165
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 167
Table: Weighting 168

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