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Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015

  • July 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 197 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Russian crude production has remained resilient in the face of low oil prices and sanctions over H115. Production of crude and condensate will fall from 2016 and drop below 10mn b/d in 2020. Russia will continue to focus investment on projects to support its diversification of exports away from Europe to China.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's oil & gas sector are:
- Oil production remains resilient to low prices and sanctions, averaging 10.68mn b/d in H115. Condensate
output and brownfield developments have been key in sustaining output.

Table Of Contents

Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Russia 2013-2019) 9
SWOT 11
Oil and Gas SWOT 11
Industry Forecast 13
Upstream Exploration 13
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Russia 2013-2018) 13
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Russia 2019-2024) 13
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Russia Major Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 31
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2013-2018) 31
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2019-2024) 31
Table: Russia Oil Commitments To China 33
Upstream Production - Gas 37
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2013-2018) 37
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2019-2024) 37
Refining 42
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Russia 2013-2018) 42
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Russia 2019-2024) 42
Refining Capacity 43
Table: Major Refinery Upgrades Planned And Underdevelopment 44
Tax Changes To Reduce Refining Runs 45
Table: Crude And Fuel Export Duty Changes 45
Refined Fuels Consumption 47
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Russia 2013-2018) 47
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Russia 2019-2024) 47
Gas Consumption 49
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2013-2018) 49
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2019-2024) 49
Trade - Oil 52
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2013-2018) 52
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2019-2024) 52
Crude Oil Trade 53
Pivot To The East 54
Table: Russia - Oil Commitments To China 54
Refined Products Trade 56
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2013-2018) 56
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2019-2024) 56
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Russia 2013-2018) 58
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Russia 2019-2024) 59
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 60
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2013-2018) 60
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2019-2024) 60
Change In Trade Patterns Ahead 61
Upside Risks To Gas Export Forecasts 63
LNG 64
Industry Risk Reward Index 66
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 66
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 66
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 67
Upstream: All Pipes Point To China 67
Regional Minnows Holding Up 69
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 70
Downstream: Turkish STAR Brightens Weak Market 70
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 71
Russia Risk/Reward Index 73
Russia Upstream Index - Rewards 73
Russia Upstream Index - Risks 74
Russia Downstream Index - Overview 74
Market Overview 75
Russia Energy Market Overview 75
Regulatory Structure 75
Fiscal Regime 75
Table: Export Duty 77
Licensing Regime 78
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 81
Oil Refineries 81
Table: Major Refineries - Russia 81
Table: Russian Refinery Upgrades 83
Oil Terminals/Ports 84
Gas Processing Plants 85
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 86
Table: Current And Proposed LNG Terminals 86
LNG Import Terminal 87
Planned Oil and Gas Pipelines 87
Table: Major Proposed International Pipelines 87
Competitive Landscape 88
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Russian Oil and Gas Sector 90
Table: Key Upstream Players 90
Table: Key Downstream Players 91
Company Profile 92
Gazprom 92
Gazprom Neft 100
Imperial Energy/ONGC 109
Lukoil 114
Novatek 121
Rosneft 127
Russneft 137
Tatneft 140
Total 144
Other Summaries 149
Regional Overview 159
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 159
Oil Production: Caspian Driving Growth 159
Oil Consumption: Demand Tempered Due To Russian Weakness 160
Refining Capacity: Few Opportunities In Weak Market 161
Natural Gas Production: Caspian Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets 162
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 163
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports 164
Global Industry Overview 166
Global Energy Market Overview 166
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates and NGLs Production ('000b/d) 166
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 169
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d) 170
Appendix 172
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix 172
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 172
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 173
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 173
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 174
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d) 175
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d) 176
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 176
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 177
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 178
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 179
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm) 180
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm) 181
Russia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts 181
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Russia 2013-2018) 181
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Russia 2019-2024) 182
Russia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts 183
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Russia 2013-2018) 183
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Russia 2019-2024) 184
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Russia 2013-2018) 185
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Russia 2019-2024) 186
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Russia 2013-2018) 187
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Russia 2019-2024) 188
Table: LPG Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Russia 2013-2018) 189
Table: LPG Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Russia 2019-2024) 189
Glossary 190
Table: Glossary Of Terms 190
Methodology 192
Industry Forecast Methodology 192
Source 194
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 194
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 196
Table: Weighting 197

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