Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2014

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 241 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
Russia remains rich in oil and gas potential and we see production upside especially in refined oil and gas ahead, despite the threat of western sanctions against further investment into its oil and gas sector. The biggest obstacle in the way of further growth is the dominance of a few large local and statebacked players in the market, which makes projects vulnerable to these firms' growing financial commitments.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's oil and gas sector are:
- In the upstream, exploration continue to yield discoveries both in mature areas such as West Siberia and less explored areas in East Siberia and offshore.
- Despite the threat of political sanctions, interest in Russia's offshore and shale potential - especially from supermajors - remains strong.

Table Of Contents

Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View 9
Table: Headline Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018).. 9
SWOT .. 11
Oil and Gas SWOT . 11
Industry Forecast .. 13
Upstream Exploration .. 13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Russia 2012-2017). 13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Russia 2018-2023). 13
Table: Comparison Of Deals Netted With Rosneft19
Upstream Projects 25
Table: Russia Major Upstream Projects. . 25
Upstream Production - Oil 30
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2012-2017) . 30
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2018-2023) . 30
Upstream Production - Gas 38
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2012-2017) 38
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2018-2023) 38
Refining . 44
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2012-2017).. 44
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2018-2023).. 44
Refining Capacity 44
Refined Oil Production 46
Refined Fuels Consumption 49
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2012-2017) 49
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2018-2023) 49
Gas Consumption 52
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2012-2017).. . 52
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2018-2023).. . 52
Trade - Oil . 55
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2012-2017)55
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2018-2023)55
Crude Oil Trade 55
Pivot To The East 56
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2012-2017).. . 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2018-2023).. . 58
Refined Oil Trade 58
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Russia 2012-2017).. 59
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Russia 2018-2023).. 60
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) . 61
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2012-2017)..61
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2018-2023)..61
Change In Trade Patterns Ahead .. 62
Upside Risks To Gas Export Forecasts 64
LNG 65
LNG Projects: Far East 67
LNG Projects: North West Russia . 69
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 71
Russia Risk/Reward Ratings .. 71
Russia Upstream Rating - Overview 71
Russia Upstream Rating - Rewards 71
Russia Upstream Rating - Risks 72
Russia Downstream Rating - Overview 72
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings 72
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings. 74
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead 74
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Limited Supportive Policy . 77
Regional Minnows Breaking Through 78
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 79
Little Change In Downstream Rankings .. 79
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings.81
Market Overview 83
Russia Energy Market Overview . 83
Overview/ State Role 86
Licensing And Regulation 87
Government Policy . 92
Table: Changes In MET Rates (RUB Per Mcm). . 94
Table: MET Rates For Crude Oil, 2014-2016.. . 95
International Energy Relations . 97
Oil and Gas Infrastructure . 120
Oil Refineries .. 120
Table: Refineries - Russia 120
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 126
Oil Pipelines 129
Gas Processing Plants .. 132
LNG Liquefaction Terminals .. 133
LNG Import Terminal 137
Gas Pipelines .. 138
Others 143
Competitive Landscape .. 144
Competitive Landscape Summary . 144
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Russian Oil and Gas Sector.145
Table: Key Upstream Players. . 146
Table: Key Downstream Players . 146
Company Profile .. 147
Gazprom .. 147
Gazprom Neft 154
Rosneft 161
Lukoil .. 169
Tatneft . 175
Total 178
Imperial Energy/ONGC .. 182
Novatek 186
Russneft 190
Other Summaries 193
Regional Overview .. 202
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Overview 202
CEE Oil Production - Russia Dominates, Caspian Output To Grow 202
CEE Oil Consumption - Regional Demand Outpacing Supply 203
CEE Refining Capacity - Few Bright Spots 204
CEE Natural Gas Production - Caspian Firing Up China 205
CEE Gas Consumption - New Gas Mainly Exported 206
Global Industry Overview 208
Global Energy Market Overview .. 208
Appendix .. 214
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels and Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts .. 214
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017..214
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023..215
Russia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts . 216
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Russia 2012-2017).216
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Russia 2018-2023).217
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Russia 2012-2017)218
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Russia 2018-2023)219
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Russia 2012-2017). . 221
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Russia 2018-2023). . 221
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Russia 2012-2017) . 222
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Russia 2018-2023) . 223
Russia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts . 223
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Russia 2012-2017)223
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Russia 2018-2023)224
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix 224
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d).. . 224
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d).. 226
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) . 226
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 227
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d).. 228
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d).229
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) . 229
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 230
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm). . 231
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm). 232
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm).. . 232
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) . 233
Glossary 234
Table: Glossary Of Terms..234
Methodology 236
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 236
Source 238
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 238
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings. . 240
Table: Weighting..241

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