Russia Oil and Gas Industry Update Quarter 4 2011

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 241 pages

This latest Russia Oil & Gas Report from BMI comes during a record-breaking year of oil production for the country. Output reached a fresh post-Soviet high of 10.3mn barrels per day (b/d) in September 2011, helping the country maintain its position ahead of Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer. For 2011 as a whole, BMI expects oil output to average 10.19mn b/d. Although oil production has been rising rapidly, we do not see the country being able to surpass the 11mn b/d mark in the next few years. We projection output reaching 10.92mn b/d by 2015.
Russia will likely remain the world’s largest gas exporter for the foreseeable future, but an increasing share of production will have to come from outside the country’s traditional gas heartland of West Siberia. Gas output will continue to rise over the medium term as new fields offset declining volumes in existing producers. Russia produced 622bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010 and will produce 728bcm by 2015. Consumption will rise along with production, albeit more slowly, as Russia gradually reforms domestic gas pricing and increases energy efficiency in line with state targets. We projection demand growing from 447bcm in 2011 to 511bcm by 2015.
Over the longer term, Russian oil production is likely to peak before 2020 and begin to fall back towards current levels. Output will rise to 10.98mn b/d in 2016, but Russia is unlikely to produce more than 10.72mn b/d by 2020. Maturation of existing fields will accelerate with new projects unable to keep pace. Oil consumption will continue to grow regardless, rising from 3.12mn b/d in 2015 to 3.62mn b/d in 2020. As a result, export volumes will peak in 2015 at 7.80mn b/d before falling to 7.11mn b/d by 2020.
Russian gas production is also likely to peak within the next 10 years, with BMI currently expecting this to occur in 2017 when the country will produce 754bcm. In 20 20 Russia should be producing no more than 730bcm, a level which is nevertheless 17.5% higher than in 2010. Gas consumption will, however, continue to rise, growing to 600bcm by 2020, a level that will eat significantly into the volumes available for export, which will fall by 25% from 175bcm in 2010 to 131bcm in 2020.
Although Russia will continue to dominate oil supply in the region, backed by huge and under-exploited reserves, the Caspian states have an important role to play, with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan playing increasingly significant role. The growth rate in Russian oil supply has slowed appreciably since the early-2000s but the acceleration of Caspian expansion means that the region will make a growing contribution to world oil production.
Russia holds fourth place, below Kazakhstan, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It holds sixth place, below Croatia, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, aided by unrivalled hydrocarbons resources. Its oil and gas reserves account for much of the upstream score, but licensing, privatisation and country risk factors are less impressive. Russia is in fourth place in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment ratings.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 7
Industry SWOT Analysis .... 9
Russia Political Environment and Risk Analysis . 9
Russia Economic Environment and Risk Analysis ... 9
Russia Business Environment SWOT .. 10
Russia Energy Industry Overview 11
Regional Energy Industry Overview . 13
Oil Supply And Demand .. 13
Data : Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) ... 14
Data : Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) .. 15
Oil: Downstream .. 16
Data : Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) .. 16
Gas Supply And Demand 17
Data : Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) . 17
Data : Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) 18
Data : Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) .... 19

Environment Overview Ratings . 20
Central/Eastern Europe Region 20
Composite Scores .. 21
Data : Regional Composite Business Environment Rating .... 21
Upstream Scores ... 22
Data : Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating . 22
Downstream Scores ... 23
Data : Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating .. 23

Environment Overview 24

Market Projection Scenario ... 31
Oil And Gas Reserves 31
Oil Supply And Demand .. 31
Gas Supply And Demand 32
LNG .. 33
Refining And Oil Products Trade ... 34
Revenues/Import Costs .... 34
Data : Russia Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Projections . 34
Other Energy ... 36
Russia Other Energy - Historical Data And Projections .... 39
Oil And Gas Infrastructure .... 40
Oil Refineries ... 40
Central Federal District . 40
North West Federal District . 40
Southern Federal District .... 40
Volga Federal District .... 41
Urals Federal District .... 41
Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
North Caucasus Federal District ... 42
Siberia Federal District .. 42
Far East Federal District 42
Data : Refineries In Russia .. 44
Oil Terminals/Ports ... 45
Oil Pipelines .... 46
LNG Terminals 48
Gas Pipelines ... 50

Macroeconomic Data .. 53
Russia - Economic Activity .. 55

Competition Overview ... 56
Executive Summary .... 56
Data : Key Domestic And Foreign Firms In The Russian Oil And Gas Segment .. 58
Overview/State Role ... 59
Licensing And Regulation .... 59
Government Policy .... 63
International Energy Relations . 65
Gas Transit And Industry ing .. 69
Oil Transit .. 74
Data : Key Upstream Players ... 76
Key Downstream Players 77
Company Monitor ... 78
Gazprom 78
Gazprom Neft ... 88
Rosneft ... 92
Lukoil 94
TNK-BP 100
Tatneft ...103
Total .106
Imperial Energy ...109
Novatek .112
Russneft .116
Surgutneftegaz - Summary .119
Sistema - Summary ...119
Bashneft - Summary .120
Itera - Summary ..121
Royal Dutch Shell - Summary .121
ExxonMobil - Summary .122
Transneft - Summary 123
Sakhalin Energy - Summary ....124
Wintershall - Summary ..124
BP - Summary 124
Lundin Petroleum - Summary ..125
Irkutsk Oil Firms - Summary ..125
Aladdin Oil and Gas - Summary 126
PetroNeft - Summary 126
Alliance Oil - Summary .127
Others - Summary ....127
Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Former IOC Partners - Summary .128
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Projections ... 130
Regional Oil Demand ....130
Data : CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) ...130
Regional Oil Supply ..131
Data : CEE Oil Production (000b/d) .131
Regional Refining Capacity 132
Data : CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 132
Regional Gas Demand ...133
Data : CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) .133
Regional Gas Supply .134
Data : CEE Gas Production (bcm) ....134
Methodology And Risks To Projections 135
Glossary Of Terms .... 136
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology ... 137
Introduction ....137
Ratings Overview .137
Data : BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 138
Indicators ...139
Data : BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology ...139
Data : BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ...140
BMI Methodology . 142
How We Generate Our Market Projections ..142
Energy Market ...142
Cross Checks ..143
Sources .143

View This Report »

Find all the market research you need - instantly, in one place.

+1.2 Million Research Documents & Statistics +200,000 Trusted Public Sources 350 Industries With Global Coverage

24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Amrita

+1 718 303 2019

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers

Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles

Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles

  • $ 6 500
  • Industry report
  • June 2014
  • by Navigant Research

Medium and Heavy Duty Hybrid Electric, Plug-In Hybrid Electric, Battery Electric, Natural Gas, Propane Autogas, Fuel Cell, and Conventional Vehicles: Global Market Forecasts, 2014-2035 The global medium ...

Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption

Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption

  • $ 6 500
  • Industry report
  • July 2014
  • by Navigant Research

Road Transportation Sector Consumption of Gasoline, Diesel, Biofuels, Natural Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Electricity, and Hydrogen: Global Market Forecasts, 2014-2035 Reducing the transportation sector's ...

Analysis of the Southeast Asia and Australia-New Zealand Process Safety Systems Market

Analysis of the Southeast Asia and Australia-New Zealand Process Safety Systems Market

  • $ 6 000
  • Industry report
  • July 2014
  • by Frost & Sullivan

Mandatory Regulations Will Drive the Uptake of Safety Systems This research service analyzes the safety systems used in process industries in Southeast Asia and Australia-New Zealand. End users include ...


ReportLinker is an award-winning market research solution that finds, filters and organizes the latest industry data so you get all the market research you need - quickly, in one place.