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  4. > Russia Power Report Q4 2016

Russia Power Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 84 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Russia's power sector continues to suffer from the effects of an ongoing economic recession andsanction regime, a weakened currency, and low oil prices. Based on consequent subdued consumptionlevels paired with high investment uncertainty, we continue to expect muted growth for our ten-yearforecast despite the country's rich resource endowment and size of its market.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The broader economic and political backdrop frames our views on the Russian power sector in 2016. The annexation of Crimea and perceived Russian belligerence towards the West has shattered investorconfidence and will deter significant foreign investment. Meanwhile, global oil prices ofbetween USD30/bbl in early 2016 and USD45/bbl in mid-2016 have made the government's budgetassumptions untenable, which will necessitate further spending cuts. At the same time, tight creditconditions - exacerbated by international sanctions - will drag on economic growth.

- These Fiscal pressures in Russia appear to be accelerating the privatisation of stakes in state-ownedcompanies, including state-owned oil giant Rosneft. That said, we are very sceptical that this will play outaccording to plan, given deep suspicion among the Russian population of privatisations following theexperience of the 1990s, as well as the reluctance of President Vladimir Putin to relinquish control overstrategic assets, and in particular at severely discounted valuations.

Table Of Contents

Russia Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Russia 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Russia Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Russia 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Russia Power Forecast Scenario 12
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Table: Russia's Energy Strategy 2030 17
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 28
Electricity Consumption 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 29
Transmission and Distribution, Import And Export 30
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 33
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 33
Industry Risk/Reward Index 34
Russia Power Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards 41
Risks 41
Market Overview 43
Key Policies And Market Structure 43
Regulation And Competition 43
Sustainable Energy Policies 44
Pricing 45
Russia Power Projects Database 47
Competitive Landscape 51
Federal Grid Company (FGC) 52
Inter RAO UES 52
Gazprom Energoholding 53
EON 53
Enel 54
Company Profile 55
Inter RAO 55
EON (Unipro) 59
Regional Overview 71
Glossary 78
Table: Glossary Of Terms 78
Methodology 79
Methodology And Sources 79
Industry Forecast Methodology 79
Sources 82
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 82
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 83
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 84

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