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  4. > South Africa Power Report Q4 2016

South Africa Power Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 75 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View:

Thermal power generation will continue to account for over 85.0% of total power output in South Africa over our 10-year forecast period due to the addition of just under 10GW of new coal-fired capacity. The highest growth in new capacity additions will come from non-hydropower renewables, forecast to grow at an annual average of 12.5%. New capacity coming online and the full commercial operation of the Ingula pumped-storage plant pending means the risk of load shedding is reduced.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- We have revised our coal-fired power forecasts on the back of the announcement by Eskom that another unit at the 4.76GW Medupi coal power plant will be in commercial operation by February 2017, after having been synchronised to the grid in September 2016. We now expect that Medupi will be finished by 2021, but still maintain our expectations for 4.8GW Kusile to be finished in 2023.

- One of the six units at the 4.1GW Majuba coal-fired station has been shut down after the announcement by Eskom that it is currently operating at excess capacity. The unit will be kept as backup in times of higher electricity demand.

- The South African government has announced that it is considering constructing its planned 9.6GW nuclear power plant with the capacity spread over 10 reactors.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (South Africa 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
South Africa Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (South Africa 2014-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (South Africa 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
South Africa Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: South Africa: Nuclear Reactors 18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 25
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 27
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 27
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 29
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 29
Industry Risk/Reward Index 30
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index 30
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 37
South Africa Power Risk/Reward Index 38
Rewards 38
Risks 38
Market Overview 40
Key Policies And Market Structure 40
Regulation And Competition 40
Sustainable Energy Policies 41
Pricing 43
Sub-Saharan Africa Key Policies And Market Structure 45
South Africa Power Projects Database 49
Competitive Landscape 51
Sub-Saharan Africa Competitive Landscape 51
Company Profile 55
Eskom 55
Regional Overview 61
MEA: Key Themes 61
Table: UAE - Huge Bid Reductions Cements Outperformer Status 66
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 70
Methodology And Sources 70
Industry Forecast Methodology 70
Sources 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 75

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