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  4. > South Africa Power Report Q4 2015

South Africa Power Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 71 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

This quarter we have made significant upward revisions to our solar and wind power forecasts, on the back of the added renewables capacity allocated by the South African government under the country's REIPPP auction system. This notwithstanding, our negative outlook for South Africa's power sector continues to remain in place this quarter. Inefficient existing generation capacity, a lack of investment, delays to project commissioning and the precarious financial situation of Eskom show little sign of abating over the short- to- medium-term. This has led our Country Risk team to revise down the nearterm growth forecasts for the country, as rolling blackouts will offset the positive growth impact of lower oil prices. On a more positive note, we highlight that South Africa's power plant and transmission grid infrastructure will continue to offer investment opportunities over our forecast period and beyond, thanks to a buoyant renewables industry, pressure on state utility Eskom to boost generation to avoid power shortages, and South Africa's nascent nuclear expansion plans.

In 2014, electricity generation in South Africa stood at 237.0 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a 1.26% decrease on the previous year. Coal-fired sources of electricity accounted for 93.1% of this figure, and we
expect that coal will continue to play a major role in electricity production during the course of our forecast period, rising by an average of 1.31% to stand at 251.4TWh in 2024. Economic growth and demographics
will both drive demand upwards.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Power Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
South Africa Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (South Africa 2013-2018) . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (South Africa 2019-2024) . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
South Africa Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity .. 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 15
Electricity Consumption .. 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 25
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 26
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 26
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2019-2024) 27
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index . 29
Sub-Saharan Africa Regional RRI . 29
Table: SSA Q415 - Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 33
South Africa Power Risk/Reward Index .. 34
Rewards .. 34
Risks . 35
Market Overview 36
Key Policies And Market Structure .. 36
Regulation And Competition 36
Sustainable Energy Policies 37
Pricing . 39
South Africa Power Projects Database .. 41
Table: South Africa Power Projects Database . 41
Competitive Landscape . 52
Company Profile . 53
Eskom 53
Regional Overview 59
MEA Regional Overview 59
Glossary .. 65
Table: Glossary Of Terms 65
Methodology . 66
Methodology And Sources . 66
Industry Forecast Methodology . 66
Sources 69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators . 70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 71

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