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United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 103 pages

BMI View: A pipeline of projects under development will boost gas output growth over the coming two to three years. However, the high cost and technically challenging nature of the non-associated gas resource base, coupled by rising gas reinjection into the UAE's maturing oilfields, will dampen growth in the longer term. Oil production rests heavily on the use of enhanced oil recovery techniques, which may come under strain in a lower commodity price environment. Despite moves towards energy subsidy reform, we forecast strong growth in both oil and gas consumption, driving rising imports of pipeline gas and LNG. However, substantial expansion of domestic refining capacity will turn the UAE into net exporter of fuels from 2016.

We highlight the following trends and developments in the UAE's oil & gas sector:

-A number of projects under development will boost oil and gas production in the coming years. However, the UAE is heavily reliant on maturing oil fields and accelerated depletion rates in a lower oil price environment remain a risk to the sector.

-The UAE holds little unexplored territory and the space for a major new discovery is limited; reserves will be supported by continued improvement in recovery rates.

-Refined fuels consumption growth is set to remain strong, despite ongoing subsidy reform. The impact of reforms will be somewhat blunted in the short run by the sharp fall in international oil prices and a sustained uptrend in vehicle sales.

-Gas consumption growth will remain strong, although the pace of growth will slow progressively due to increased electricity tariffs and diversification of the domestic power mix towards nuclear and renewables.

-The UAE has seen its refined capacity and refined fuels output grow significantly in 2015 as the Ruwais refinery expansion was brought on stream. The UAE will become a net exporter of refined fuels from 2016, added to its substantial crude export volumes.

Table Of Contents

United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 9
Upstream Projects 11
Table: United Arab Emirates Major Upstream Projects 11
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018) 15
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024) 15
Upstream Production - Gas 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018) 18
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024) 19
Refining 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018) 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024) 22
Refined Fuels Consumption 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018) 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024) 28
Gas Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Crude Oil 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2013-2019) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024) 35
Refined Fuels 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024) 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024) 41
Industry Risk/Reward Index 42
Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI) 42
Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 43
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Limited Opportunities Downstream 45
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
UAE - Risk/Reward Index 48
UAE Upstream Index 48
UAE Downstream Index 48
Market Overview 49
United Arab Emirates Energy Market Overview 49
Regulatory Structure 49
Fiscal Regime 49
Table: UAE Main Fiscal Terms 49
Licensing Regime 50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 51
Oil Refineries 51
Table: Refineries In The UAE 51
Oil Export Terminals 51
Table: UAE Export Terminals 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Competitive Landscape Summary 52
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE's Oil and Gas Sector 53
Company Profile 54
ADNOC 54
BP 61
Dolphin Energy 63
Emarat 66
ENOC 69
ExxonMobil 73
Royal Dutch Shell 76
Total 78
Other Summaries 80
Regional Overview 86
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 86
Oil Production: Expansion Projects March On 86
Oil Consumption: Subsidies Hide Weaker Price Impact, But Push Demand Growth 88
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market 90
Gas Production: In Needed Of More Gas 91
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 93
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 94
Glossary 96
Table: Glossary Of Terms 96
Methodology 98
Industry Forecast Methodology 98
Source 100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 100
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 102
Table: Weighting 103

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