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United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
We forecast a continued rise in oil and gas production over the coming years, in large part driven by field expansion and EOR projects. The refining sector is also set for growth, which will crimp crude exports but bolster sales of higher value-added products. Energy-switching, efficiency gains and subsidy reduction will help slow the pace of gas demand growth. However, we see domestic demand continuing to outpace consumption in the UAE, driving continued growth in LNG imports over the forecast period.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts


- This quarter we have maintained our 2016-2025 forecasts for UAE's oil and gas reserves, which we expect to decline by 12.6% and 12.0% respectively. Considering that the country's acreage is well explored, we believe that only real upside potential comes from unconventionals.

- Driven by field expansion and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques, UAE's oil production is set to peak at 3.98mn bbl in 2022, before declining slightly to 3.97mn bbl by the end of our forecast period.

- Supported by new production from Bab gas project, Zora and Shah gas fields, UAE's gas output is forecast to peak at 75.1bcm in 2021, followed by gradual declines due to maturing fields.

Table Of Contents

United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: United Arab Emirates Major Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 16
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 20
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 24
Refined Fuels Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 28
Gas Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Oil 32
Crude Oil 32
Latest Updates 32
Crude Oil 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020) 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 34
Refined Fuels 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 39
Industry Risk/Reward Index 40
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 41
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 43
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
UAE - Risk/Reward Index 46
Upstream Index 46
Downstream Index 46
Market Overview 47
United Arab Emirates Energy Market Overview 47
Regulatory Structure 47
Fiscal Regime 47
Table: UAE Main Fiscal Terms 47
Licensing Regime 48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 49
Oil Refineries 49
Table: Refineries In The UAE 49
Oil Export Terminals 49
Table: UAE Export Terminals 49
Company Profile 50
ADNOC 50
Table: Major Upstream Assets In UAE 51
Table: Key Financial Data 51
Regional Overview 52
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 52
Oil Production: Liquids Output Heading Higher 52
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand 55
Table: Average Gasoline Pump Price June 2015 and September 2016 (USD/Litre) 55
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete 57
Gas Production: Momentum Behind Gas Accelerates 58
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Stretch Consumption 60
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 61
Glossary 62
Table: Glossary Of Terms 62
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Source 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 66
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 68
Table: Weighting 69

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