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  5. > United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 141 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The UK's vote to leave the EU has not affected our oil and gas production forecasts as thestrong project pipeline will ensure that the UK experiences a provisional uptick in oil and gas output. Thelong-term trend of decline will also remain in place, as high operating costs, capex reductions and a lack ofsignificant new discoveries limit investment into the mature basin. A depreciated sterling offers a measureof upside risk as North Sea investment becomes cheaper to international operators; however we note thatthe uncertainty surrounding the terms of the UK's exit and a possible Scottish secession will mitigate most ifnot all of the favourable currency swings.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the UK oil and gas sector are:Exploration

- Our already bearish view for North Sea oil and gas exploration has only been compounded by theinvestor uncertainty surrounding the terms of the UK's departure from the EU. The possibility of aScottish secession means that the fiscal and regulatory framework might change, resulting in 2016performing worse than the woeful exploratory efforts of 2015. On the upside, a weaker pound couldattract back international investors that can take advantage of lower operating and production costs.

- The impact of the tax reductions for all E&Ps operating in the North Sea will have a negligible impact onexploration levels as companies focus on maximising production rather than expanding their resourcebase.

- The British parliament passed regulations permitting drilling underneath protected areas that includenational parks, Areas of Outstanding National Beauty (AONB), the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads andWorld Heritage Sites. Companies will be allowed to drill wellheads outside of protected areas and drillhorizontally beneath the parks at a minimum depth of 1,200m.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Brexit Upstream Scenarios 11
Upstream Exploration 16
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Lacklustre Exploration To Continue In 2016 17
Exploration-Specific Incentives Required To Boost Exploration 20
Unconventional Gas 21
Upstream Projects 26
Table: United Kingdom - Major Upstream Projects 26
Upstream Production - Oil 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: A Significant Fiscal Upheaval 45
Table: Oil Production (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 49
Table: Oil Production (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 49
Upstream Production - Gas 50
Latest Updates 50
Structural Trends 50
Table: Gas Production (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 55
Table: Gas Production (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 55
Refining 56
Latest Updates 56
Structural Trends 56
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 60
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 60
Refined Fuels Consumption 61
Latest Updates 61
Structural Trends 61
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 63
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 63
Gas Consumption 64
Latest Updates 64
Structural Trends 64
Table: Gas Consumption (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 69
Table: Gas Consumption (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 70
Trade - Oil 71
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 71
Latest Updates 71
Structural Trends 71
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 73
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 74
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts 74
Latest Updates 74
Structural Trends 74
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 76
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 76
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 77
Latest Updates 77
Structural Trends 77
Table: United Kingdom - LNG Import Contracts 82
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 82
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 84
Industry Risk Reward Index 85
United Kingdom - Risk/Reward Index 85
Upstream Index 85
Downstream Index 86
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 86
Table: North America and Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 86
Upstream Rankings: Resource Base Will Keep North America Well Ahead 87
North America Open To Investment, At The Right Price 87
Resource Limitations Take Toll On Western Europe 88
Table: North America and Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 90
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead 90
Table: North America and Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index 92
Market Overview 93
Energy Market Overview 93
Regulatory Structure 93
Licensing Regime 93
Table: UK Licensing Regime 94
Fiscal Regime 94
Table: UK Fiscal Regime As Of 2015 94
Table: A Significant Fiscal Upheaval 96
Licensing Rounds 96
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 97
Oil Refineries 98
Oil Storage Facilities 102
Oil Terminals/Ports 102
Oil Pipelines 102
LNG Terminals 103
Gas Storage Facilities 104
Table: Gas Storage Facilities 105
Gas Pipelines 109
Competitive Landscape 111
Competitive Landscape Summary 111
Table: Key Players - UK Oil and Gas Sector 113
Table: Key Upstream Players 114
Table: Key Downstream Players 114
Company Profile 115
BP 115
Latest Updates 115
Table: Major Upstream Assets In The UK 116
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 116
Royal Dutch Shell 117
Latest Updates 117
Table: Key Assets In The UK 118
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 118
Total 119
Latest Updates 119
Table: Key Assets In The UK 120
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 120
Regional Overview 121
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 121
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025 130
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025 132
Glossary 134
Table: Glossary Of Terms 134
Methodology 136
Industry Forecast Methodology 136
Source 138
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 138
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 140
Table: Weighting 141

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