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United States Oil and Gas Report Q4 2014

  • November 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 213 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: The US will continue to lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production in the coming years. We forecast crude oil and NGLs production will rise from an estimated 12.2 b/d in 2014 to 14.7mn b/d in 2023. Breakneck growth seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-year forecast period, reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude and lower oil prices dampening some production. Consumption for fuels will be stagnant as energy efficiency gains take root. On the gas market, we forecast a ramp-up in production when demand gears up 2017 onwards as new LNG
and petrochemical plants come online.

- Falling oil prices, especially on the WTI contract, over recent months are beginning to create pressures on the fringes of oil production in the US. Our research suggests shale oil growth will remain profitable above USD80/bbl. At this level, sweet spot production areas in all the main shale plays will continue to be profitable, but more marginal areas of some of the plays, where oil recovery volumes are poorer, will be impacted.

Table Of Contents

United States Oil and Gas Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United States 2012-2018) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT . 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (United States 2012-2017) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (United States 2018-2023) 11
Upstream Projects . 15
Table: United States - Major Upstream Projects . 15
Upstream Production - Oil 25
Table: Oil Production (United States 2012-2017) 25
Table: Oil Production (United States 2018-2023) 26
Upstream Production - Gas . 35
Table: Gas Production (United States 2012-2017) . 35
Table: Gas Production (United States 2018-2023) . 35
Refining . 39
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2012-2017) 39
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2018-2023) 39
Refined Fuels Consumption . 42
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United States 2012-2017) . 42
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United States 2018-2023) . 42
Gas Consumption 48
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2012-2017) . 48
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2018-2023) . 48
Trade - Oil . 51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2012-2017) 51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2018-2023) 51
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2012-2017) 52
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2018-2023) 53
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (United States 2012-2017) . 54
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (United States 2018-2023) . 55
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) . 56
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2012-2017) 56
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2018-2023) 56
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 61
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings . 61
Table: North America and Western Europe States Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 62
Upstream: US Nearly On Par With Canada 62
Table: Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 62
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook 65
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops . 67
Table: Oil and Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 67
Unites States - Risk/Reward Index . 71
Market Overview . 72
United States Energy Market Overview 72
Licensing And Regulation 72
Government Policy . 75
Licensing Rounds . 80
Table: Total BOEM Acreage To Be Offered 2012-2017 . 80
Table: 2012-2017 Lease Sale Schedule . 81
International Energy Relations . 83
Table: Key Upstream Players . 84
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 89
Oil Refineries 89
Table: New US Refineries . 90
Table: 2014 Refinery Expansions . 93
Table: Refineries In the US 94
Service Stations . 100
Oil Storage Facilities 100
Oil Terminals/Ports 100
Oil Pipelines . 101
Table: Crude Oil Pipelines Recently Online/Planned For The US, 2012-2014 . 102
LNG Terminals 105
Table: LNG Terminals In the US 105
Table: US LNG Export Terminal Projects . 110
Gas Storage Facilities . 111
Gas Pipelines 111
Table: New Natural Gas Pipelines Planned . 113
Competitive Landscape 117
Competitive Landscape Summary 117
Table: Key Upstream Players . 119
Table: Key Downstream Players 119
Company Profile 120
ExxonMobil 120
Chevron . 128
BP America 136
ConocoPhillips . 143
Anadarko . 148
Shell USA . 153
Other Summaries . 160
Regional Overview 174
Industry News . 174
Global Industry Overview 183
Global Energy Market Overview 183
Appendix 189
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts 189
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017 . 189
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023 . 190
North America Regional Appendix 192
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 192
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 192
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) . 193
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 193
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) . 193
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) . 194
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) . 194
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) . 194
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) . 195
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) . 195
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 195
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 196
United States - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts 197
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (United States 2012-2017) 197
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (United States 2018-2023) 198
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (United States 2012-2017) 199
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (United States 2018-2023) 200
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (United States 2012-2017) 201
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (United States 2018-2023) 202
Table: LPG Production, Consumption And Net Exports (United States 2012-2017) . 203
Table: LPG Production, Consumption And Net Exports (United States 2018-2023) . 203
United States - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts 204
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (United States 2012-2017) . 204
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (United States 2018-2023) . 204
Glossary . 206
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 206
Methodology 208
Industry Forecast Methodology 208
Source . 210
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 210
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 212
Table: Weighting 213

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