United States Oil and Gas Industry Update Quarter 4 2011

  • September 2013
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 173 pages

The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI projections that the country will account for 89.17% of North American regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 72.01% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption will have reached an estimated 21.53mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011. It is set to rise to 22.49mn b/d by 2015. In the meantime, supply will average an estimated 12.01mn b/d in 2011 and could climb to 12.91mn b/d by 2015, thanks largely to biofuels and production from Canada’s oil sands projects offsetting the conventional oil decline in Canada and the US. Net imports for the region should be 9.58mn b/d in 2015 – up from an estimated 9.52mn b/d in 2011.
In terms of natural gas, the North American region will have consumed an estimated 767bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, with demand of 846bcm targeted for 2015, representing 10.4% growth. Production of an estimated 945cm in 2011 is set to rise to 1,019bcm in 2015. The US share of gas consumption in 2011 will have been an estimated 87.98%, while it will have contributed 82.43% to regional production. In 20 15, its share of gas consumption is projection to be 87.58%, with 84.39% of regional supply.
Global Gross Domestic Product growth in 2011 is projection at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be 1.65%, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price hypothesis for 2011 is US Dollar 101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US Dollar 97.50/bbl in 2012. We projection Brent production to average US Dollar 106/bbl in 2011 and US Dollar 97.50/bbl in 2012. WTI is projection to average US Dollar 95.30 in 2011 and US Dollar 94.50 in 2012.
US real Gross Domestic Product growth in 2011 is projection by BMI at 2.56%. We are assuming 2.64% average annual growth in from 2011 to 2015 . Average US oil and liquids production (including bio fuels) will have been an estimated 8.63mn b/d in 2011. In 20 15, we are projecting output of 9.30mn b/d. US oil demand in 2011 is put by BMI at 19.26mn b/d. We now see US oil use hitting 20.06mn b/d by 2015, requiring crude imports of 10.76mn b/d. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 667bcm in 2011 to nearly 713bcm by 2015.
Between 2011 and 2020, we are projecting a 10.44% rise in US oil/bio fuels production, with output rising steadily to 9.53mn b/d in 2020. Given that oil consumption is projection to rise by 9.98%, imports should rise from an estimated 10.63mn b/d in 2011 to 11.65mn b/d during the projection period. With investment pouring into unconventional gas plays across the country, gas production could reach 766bcm by 2020. Demand is also set to increase, rising from an estimated 667bcm in 2011 to 750bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year projections can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, the US long-term political risk score is 87.6, compared with the Developed Industries average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 64.1, below the Developed Industries average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. The US is a deregulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy industry . There are numerous international and domestic industry players operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The industry is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain’s BP the biggest foreign investor (prior to its recent asset disposal programme), followed by Royal Dutch Shell.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary .. 7
Industry SWOT Analysis 9
US Political Environment and Risk Analysis .. 9
US Economic Environment and Risk Analysis 9
US Energy Industry Overview . 10
Regional Energy Industry Overview . 11
Oil Supply And Demand ... 11
Data : Developed Industries Oil Consumption (000b/d), from 2008 to 2015 ... 12
Data : Developed Industries Oil Production (000b/d), from 2008 to 2015 . 13
Oil: Downstream ... 14
Data : Developed Industries Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), from 2008 to 2015 14
Gas Supply And Demand . 15
Data : Developed Industries Gas Consumption (bcm), from 2008 to 2015 . 15
Data : Developed Industries Gas Production (bcm), from 2008 to 2015 .... 16
Liquefied Natural Gas . 17
Data : Developed Industries LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm), from 2008 to 2015 .. 17

Market Projection Scenario ... 18
Oil and Gas Reserves .. 18
Oil Supply And Demand ... 19
Gas Supply And Demand . 20
LNG ... 21
Refining and Oil Products Trade .... 21
Revenues/Import Costs 22
Data : US Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Projections, from 2008 to 2015 ... 22
Key Risks To BMI’s Projection Scenario 24
Long-Term Oil and Gas Outlook .... 24
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 25
Oil Refineries .... 25
Data : Refineries In The US .. 25
Service Stations . 27
Oil Storage Facilities .. 27
Oil Terminals/Ports .... 27
Oil Pipelines 28
LNG Terminals . 30
Data : LNG Terminals In the US .... 33
Gas Storage Facilities . 34
Gas Pipelines .... 34

Macroeconomic Data .. 37
Data : United States - Economic Activity from 2008 to 2015 .... 40

Competition Overview .... 41
Executive Summary 41
Data : Key Players - US Oil And Gas Segment 43
Overview/State Role .... 43
Licensing and Regulation 43
Government Policy 48
Licensing Rounds ... 52
International Energy Relations .. 54
Data : Key Upstream Players .... 55
Data : Key Downstream Players .... 56
Company Monitor .... 57
ExxonMobil .. 57
Chevron .. 62
BP America .. 66
ConocoPhillips . 71
Anadarko Petroleum ... 74
Royal Dutch Shell .. 80
Marathon Oil - Summary 85
Marathon Petroleum- Summary 86
Total - Summary .... 87
Hess - Summary .... 88
Statoil - Summary .. 89
Chesapeake Energy - Summary . 91
Apache - Summary 92
Enbridge - Summary .. 93
Devon Energy - Summary .... 94
Maersk Oil - Summary .... 95
Valero Energy - Summary .... 96
BHP Billiton - Summary .. 97
Tesoro - Summary . 98
El Paso - Summary 98
Gazprom - Summary .. 99
Talisman Energy - Summary ....101
Western Refining - Summary ....101
Denbury Resources - Summary 101
Range Resources - Summary ....102
McMoRan Exploration - Summary 102
Lewis Energy - Summary 104
Petrohawk - Summary ....104
Repsol YPF - Summary ..104
Holly Corporation - Summary ..105
Reliance Market /Atlas Energy - Summary ....106
Others - Summary 107
Service Firms 108
Data : US Service Segment Merger and Acquisition Deals 108
Oil and Gas Outlook: Long-Term Projections .... 112
Regional Oil Demand 112
Data : North America Oil Consumption (000b/d) ...112
Regional Oil Supply ...112
Data : North America Oil Production (000b/d) .112
Regional Refining Capacity .113
Data : North America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 113
Regional Gas Demand ....113
Data : North America Gas Consumption (bcm) .113
Regional Gas Supply ..114
Data : North America Gas Production (bcm) ....114
Methodology and Risks To Projections .114
Glossary of Terms . 115
Oil and Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology .... 116
Introduction 116
Ratings Overview ..116
Data : BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 117
Indicators ....118
Data : BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology ...118
Data : BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ...119
BMI Methodology .. 121
How We Generate Our Market Projections ...121
Energy Market ....121
Sources ..122

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