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  4. > Venezuela Power Report Q4 2016

Venezuela Power Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 53 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The outlook for Venezuela's beleaguered power sector has not improved this quarter, withwidespread power outages, a consequence of a prolonged drought and heavy losses from ageinginfrastructure, crippling the country and contributing to further social unrest and political uncertainty.While some hydropower output is reportedly coming back online over the coming months as water levels atthe key Guri dam improve, overall we expect to see a sharp decrease in total electricity generation in 2016.Several new power plants are under development in the country, enhancing capacity over the medium term.However, the investment environment in Venezuela, where there is a history of state appropriation of assetsand widespread corruption, will remain a deterrent to the much-needed large-scale development.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Adding to the woes of Venezuela's power sector, workers at Corpoelec, the state-owned energy giant, areundertaking a widespread strike in early July, protesting at delays to the confirmation of a new collectiveagreement. The strike comes amid escalating public protests over food and medicine shortages while lowoil prices, high inflation and a poor business environment will see Venezuela's recession stretch into itsthird year in 2016, and persist until 2018.

- While the electricity rationing has ended, according to a July 2016 statement from Venezuelan PresidentNicolas Maduro, the electricity supply scenario remains in a precarious position. We are maintaining ourcurrent forecast for a 0.66% fall in total electricity generation over 2016, with an increase in thermaloutput failing to entirely compensate for the drop-off in hydropower generation.

- In light of the weak economic environment, we do not expect to see any major investment in the powersector above the current, limited, project pipeline. As such we forecast only limited gains in totalelectricity capacity and generation over the course of the forecast period through to 2025, leavingVenezuela vulnerable to further supply shortages.

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Venezuela 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Venezuela Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Venezuela 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Venezuela 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Venezuela Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Total Electricity Generation And Capacity Forecasts 18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 20
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 22
Transmission And Distribution 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 24
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
LatAm Risk and Reward Index (RRI): Macroeconomic Dynamics Weighing On Outlook 25
Venezuela Power Risk/Reward Index 32
Rewards 32
Risks 33
Market Overview 34
Key Policies And Market Structure 34
Regulation And Competition 34
Pricing 34
Venezuela Power Projects Database 35
Table: Venezuela - Top 10 Projects By Capacity Type (MW) 36
Competitive Landscape 38
Corpoelec 38
Edelca 39
EDC 39
Regional Overview 40
LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 40
Table: BMI'S KEY THEMES FOR LATIN AMERICA'S POWER INDUSTRY IN 2016 AND BEYOND 43
Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector 43
Glossary 47
Table: Glossary Of Terms 47
Methodology 48
Methodology And Sources 48
Industry Forecast Methodology 48
Sources 51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 51
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53

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