New Perspectives and Trends for the Emergent Market

The Brazilian solar PV generation is segmented into 3 components: centralized, distributed, and isolated. This study will analyze the individual segments as well as the industry as a whole and how it´s growth is impacted by other renewable sources such as hydroelectric, wind, and biomass that are incentivized by the government. High prices and lack of financing continue to impact this industry. Although, new measures and events are taking place: on-grid policies, R&D investments, and the building of the solar stadiums for the 2014 World Cup are expected to boost both the capacity installed and revenues. This study will demonstrate outlook for the solar PV market in Brazil, including opportunities in the actual market that change each day.

Executive Summary

• Brazilian solar PV generation is segmented into X components: centralized, distributed, and isolated.
• The Brazilian government still awaits a reduction in solar prices to create a specific auction by the end of 2013 or the beginning of 2014. However, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) does not demonstrate any signs of this happening.
• Solar implementation costs are expected to keep decreasing within the next few years, and more components are expected to be manufactured in Brazil.
• From 2009 to 2012, few changes occurred in the solar segment; capacity installed and revenues were considered stable and not representative.
• In 2013, however, revenue and capacity installed are expected to double: projects will be delivered, the resolution 482/2012 will have a major impact, andX% of the National Association of Electric Energy’s (ANEEL’s) research and development (R&D) will conclude. Capacity installed expectations in 2013 will near X megawatts (MW); in 2014, X MW; in 2015, X MW; and beyond, faster expansion is expected.
• Currently, capacity installed for the solar market is X MW, but it is expected to reach X MW by 2017. The total possible capacity installed for Brazil is close toX gigawatts (GW).
• This market revenue will have a X% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the forecast period (2012–2017) due to ANEEL´s R&D, international events, and the resolution 482/2012 cost reductions.
• Now, market revenue is close to $X million and can reach $X million by 2017.
• Major companies are betting on medium and high voltage consumers of self-consumption to leverage the market revenues and capacity installed.
• Centralized energy will boost the sector and will continue to attract foreign companies as regulations and bureaucracies become known.
• Distributed generation could grow faster with financial support, better service from energy concessionaries, and cost reductions; nonetheless, it will grow considerably.
• Competition is high and companies are targeting different niches.

CEO’s Perspective

1. Solar generation is still expensive and dependent on the Brazilian government’s initiatives.
2. It is a competitive and fragmented market wherein engineering, purcurement, and construction (EPC) participants lead.
3. Brazil´s economy and energy demand are favorable for this market.
4. Isolated generation has high participation, but the market is migrating toward distributed and centralized sources.
5. This sector will expand in the next few years, and if a specific auction occurs, the entire sector could experience faster and larger growth.

Geographic Scope

Brazil is the focus of this study. Since Brazil is a continental country with diverse social, economic, and environmental realities, companies are dispersed across various locations and target a range of market niches.

Definitions

Description of Market
This study considers only the PV generation of the total solar market (isolated, centralized, and distributed generation).

Definition of Price
This is the average selling price of the energy generated by the PV system commercialized in both the regulatory and the free market.

Definition of Currency
In this study, prices are provided in US dollars and have been converted from Brazilian reals (R$) based on the Central Bank of Brazil’s exchange rate US $X = R $X.

Distributed Generation
Distinctions between distributed micro- and minigeneration are considered:
• Distributed microgeneration: electricity generating system, with capacity installed less than or equal to X kilowatts (kW) ; uses solar energy connected to the distribution network through facilities of consumer units
• Distributed minigeneration: electricity generating system with a capacity installed greater than 100 kW and less than or equal to X MW for the same sources; connected to the distribution network through facilities of consumer units

Key Questions this Study will Answer

• How is the solar market structured in Brazil?
• What are the drivers and restraints of this sector? What influences are involved, and what is the impact?
• Is the market growing, how long will it continue to grow, and at what rate?
• How is the government involved? What potential implications does this involvement create?
• Where are the niches? Which regions offer the best investment opportunities?
• What revenue forecasts are expected for the isolated power market from 2012 to 2017?
• Which are the main companies involved, and where are the best opportunities?

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Market Overview
3. Total Market
• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints
• Technology Analysis
• Forecasts and Trends
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis
4. Centralized Generation Segment Breakdown
5. Distributed Generation Segment Breakdown
6. Isolated Generation Segment Breakdown
7. The Last Word (Conclusions and Implications)
8. Appendix

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