Strategic Analysis of Brazil Electric Vehicle Market

  • July 2013
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 107 pages

Era of Electric Vehicles in Brazil, With Market Growing to More than 80,000 Units by 2020

This study analyses the developments in the Latin American eMobility space and focuses on the Brazilian electric vehicle market. The study presents the key market drivers, restraints, and challenges in the market and outlines the current legislative scenario in the region. The study forecasts the market size for electric vehicles in Brazil through years 2012 to 2020, and the size of the corresponding charging infrastructure market. Frost & Sullivan has also presented a city attractiveness analysis for Latin America, considering the key regions for electric vehicle adoption. In conclusion, the study provides key recommendations for OEMs with regard to electric vehicle product positioning in the Brazilian market.

Key Findings

Brazil EV Market
• By 2020, an estimatedXelectric vehicle (EV) models are expected to be launched in Brazil, with the market growing to X+ units by end of 2020.
• Nissan Leaf, Ford C-max Energi, Chevrolet Volt, and other key models from majority of global automotive participants will be first models to enter the market.

Legislative Support
• The Brazil automotive policy towards EVs is currently in its nascent stage, and the second phase of INOVAR auto program is expected to have incentives for EV manufacturers/ buyers/ users.
• The industry expects reduction in import duties or a X% waiver of import duties initially, and also a reduction in industrial production IPI to around X%.

Charging Infrastructure
• Currently only focused in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the charging infrastructure is expected to strengthen across other key regions, namely, Pernambuco, Sergipe, and Ceara.
• The charging installation forecast for 2020 is expected to be around X points in Brazil.
• Of this X points, around Xto X% would be Level Xand X to X% Level X.

Price Analysis
• Research indicates that the Brazilian end-user base, although receptive to EV technology, is not ready to pay a large premium over conventional vehicles.
• A price bandwidth of $Xto $X for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and $Xto $Xfor battery electric vehicles (BEV) is estimated to be the right market entry points.

Key Findings and Future Outlook: Brazil, 2012 and 2020

Market Stage and Evolution
Current
• Brazil’s EV market is currently in its nascent stage and is expected to grow significantly after 2017.
• The majority of global automotive participants are currently evaluating the market with pilot launches and testing.
Future
• In the long-term, Brazil is expected to emerge as the leading market for EVs in Latin America.
• The Chile, Colombia, and Mexico regions are expected to offer significant market opportunity.

Charging Infrastructure
Current
• Current infrastructure is focused only around Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
• Government support and incentives towards infrastructure deployment is currently believed to be in the planning phase.
Future
• Legislative impetus mandating the establishment of charging stations across key regions (X or more cities) is expected by the end of 2014.
• A pay-as-you-go business model is most likely to succeed, as compared to a subscription-based model.

Barriers to Entry
Current
• Current challenges include inadequate legislative support, limited charging infrastructure, strong opposition from pro-Ethanol groups, and high initial acquisition cost of vehicle.
Future
• Legislative support is expected to become further supportive by 2017.
• Vehicle acquisition cost is expected to reduce due to tax incentives and rebates. Charging infrastructure is expected to adequately support the market after 2017.

Insights on Incentives for EVs in Brazil

Currently, X states in Brazil offer full exemption of road tax andXstates offer partial exemption for EV owners.

States that offer total road tax exemption (IPVA) for EV owners
Maranhão
Ceara
Piauí
Rio Grande do Norte
Pernambuco
Sergipe
Rio Grande do Sul

States which offer a partial exemption on road tax for EV owners
Rio de Janeiro
Sao Paulo
Mato Grosso do Sul

No other incentives have been announced as yet for Evs.

Key Questions this Study will Answer

• What is the status of the EV market in Brazil at present, and market estimation for the short, medium and the long-term with scenarios? What is the impact of regulatory and macro-economic trends to market growth?
• What is the potential EV market size in Brazil through 2020? Which are key EV models expected to compete in the market and what are OEMs launch plans?
• What is the charging station infrastructure mix required to support the EVs? What is the split between residential and public charging stations? What business model will be used
• How can OEMs leverage this market, and what would be the right product positioning strategy?

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
3. Definition/Segmentation
4. Global EV Market Overview
5. Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications
• Impact of Top Mega Trends on the EV Market—Urbanization
• Mega Cities
6. External Challenges—EV Market
• EV Market—Stakeholders Overview
• Insights on Incentives for EVs in Brazil
• Drivers and Restraints
• Challenges for Brazilian EV Market
• Insights on Incentives for EVs in Brazil—Outlook
• Key EV Purchase Criteria in Brazil
7. Forecast and Trends—Total Market
• Powertrain Market—Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix
• EV Market—Market Penetration Forecast
• EV Product Launch Roadmap—PHEV
• EV Product Launch Roadmap—BEV
• EV Pricing Analysis and Estimates, 2012 and 2020
• EV Market—Market Breakdown by OEM
8. City Attractiveness Analysis
• Country Attractiveness Ranking—Latin America
• City Attractiveness Ranking—Latin America
9. Brazilian EV Charging Infrastructure Outlook
• EV Charging Infrastructure—Definitions and Types
• EV Charging Infrastructure—Market Structure
• EV Charging Infrastructure—Key Stakeholders
• EV Charging Infrastructure—Market Evolution
• EV Charging Infrastructure—Scenario Analysis
• EV Charging Infrastructure—Regional Analysis
• Charging Infrastructure Business Model
10. Key OEM Profiles
• Ford Motor Company Brasil Ltda.
• General Motors in Brazil
• Renault-Nissan in Brazil
11. Conclusions and Future Outlook
• Recommendations—OEM
12. Appendix

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