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  4. > Central Africa Mining Report Q4 2015

Central Africa Mining Report Q4 2015

  • July 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Central Africa is starting to leverage its considerable mineral wealth as mining activity expands across the region, in countries such as the DRC, Congo-Brazzaville and Cameroon. The region's considerable and largely untapped deposits and high grades are an attractive proposition for international mining group, particularly as other locations suffer falling grades and higher operating costs. We see significant potential for growth in the extraction of copper, gold, iron ore and other minerals, however, political risks and a lack of adequate infrastructure continue to present considerable challenges to operators in the region.

As is the case throughout much of Sub-Saharan Africa, much of the mining sector in Central Africa is at an embryonic stage of development. We highlight the region's fledgling iron ore sector which is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Congo-Brazzaville and Cameroon. The high-quality grades and considerable reserves of these countries provide an advantage to miners willing to overlook the sizeable political risks and infrastructure constraints of these countries, particularly given the current lowprice environment for iron ore and other commodities. While much of the early investment into these markets has come from Western investors, many of these hailing from Australia, the UK and North America, there is growing interest from Asian companies, including those from China and South Korea, as they look to secure long-term access to iron ore supplies.

Table Of Contents

Central Africa Mining Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
A New Stage For Metals Production 8
Industry Forecast 11
Congo -DRC Conflict Minerals And The Dodd-Frank Act - Crib Sheet 11
Core View: Conflict Mineral Regulations Pose Minimal Risk To Sector 11
What Are Conflict Minerals? 12
What Does The Dodd-Frank Act Stipulate Regarding Conflict Minerals? 13
Which Companies Are Affected By The Act? 13
What Is The Aim Of The US Government In Implementing This? 13
Are These Efforts Likely To Succeed? 14
Would A Significant Crackdown On Conflict Mineral Exports Harm The DRC's Economy? 14
Congo - Gold: DRC Bucking Global Slowdown 15
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Congo (DRC) 2012-2019) 17
Copper: Production Growth Steady Despite Risks 18
Table: DRC - Copper Projects 20
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Congo (DRC) 2011-2019) 22
Congo Iron Ore: Low-Price Environment May Undermine Growth 23
Table: Largest Iron Ore Projects 25
China and Infrastructure Present Risks 25
Iron Ore: Cameroon To Take Centre Stage 27
Table: Cameroon - Key Mining Projects 29
Infrastructure Investment Essential 29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 31
Africa: Headwinds To Slow Growth 31
Key Takeaways: 31
Latest Revisions: 32
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index 33
Regulatory Development 34
Congo and Cameroon: Uncertainty, But Signs Of Promise 34
Higher Taxes Round The Corner 35
Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook 35
Commodities Forecast 37
Commodity Strategy 37
Ferrous Metals 37
Iron Ore: Price To Remain Under Pressure In 2015-2016 37
Steel: Subdued Prices Until 2017 39
Non-Ferrous Metals 42
Copper: Subdued Outlook, Despite Recent Rally 42
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue 44
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth 45
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices 46
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead 47
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 49
Competitive Landscape 50
Company Profile 52
Global Company Strategy - Randgold Resources - Q4 2015 52
Latest Financial Results 56
Table: Randgold Resources - Key Financial Data 57
Global Company Strategy - MMG Limited - Q3 2015 58
Table: MMG Ltd - Supply Chain Analysis 62
Table: MMG Limited - Key Financial Data 63
Regional Overview 64
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes 64
Key Themes 64
SSA Gold: Stagnation, But DRC To Shine Bright 64
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth 65
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth 66
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP 67
Global Industry Overview 69
Global - Mining 2015 Key Themes Revisited 69
Table: Key Mining Themes For 2015 69
Theme: Mining Capital Expenditure Will Continue To Decline 69
Theme: US Dollar Strength 70
Iron Ore Consolidation and Majors Share To Increase 71
Asian Investment In Africa To Continue 72
2015's Standouts 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 78

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