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Summary
The Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings
- The Nigerian defense market, valued at US$1.8 billion in 2016, is expected to see sustained growth over the next five years, to reach US$2.1 billion by 2021. The growing threat from Boko Haram, piracy, oil smuggling in the Gulf of Guinea, and contributions to peacekeeping operations, are expected to drive the country's military expenditure, registering a growth rate of 3.73% over the forecast period.

- On a cumulative basis, the country is expected to invest US$9.9 billion for defense purposes, of which US$3.4 billion is earmarked for capital expenditure to fund defense procurements. The government's well-defined military modernization plans to counter influence of narco-terrorists, drug traffickers and weapon traffickers is expected to fuel procurement of defense equipment.

- The MoD is expected to invest in fighters and multi-role aircraft, Infantry fighing vehicles, attack helicopters, and transport aircrafts over the coming years.


Synopsis
This report offers detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- The Nigerian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry during 2017-2021, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

- Porter's Five Force analysis of the Nigerian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years

- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Nigerian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis


Reasons To Buy
- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry market trends for the coming five years

- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

- A deep qualitative analysis of the Nigerian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts


Table Of Contents

Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Nigerian Defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.73% during the forecast period
3.1.2. Insurgency, piracy, oil smuggling, and peacekeeping operations are expected to drive defense expenditure
3.1.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to average 0.3% over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Allocation for capital expenditure expected to average at 34.4% over the forecast period
3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to grow at 14.71% over the forecast period
3.2.3. Allocation for the army accounts for the majority of the defense budget
3.2.4. Army expenditure to grow at a CAGR 3.65% over the forecast period
3.2.5. Naval expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 3.68% over the forecast period
3.2.6. Expenditure on the air force to increase during the forecast period
3.2.7. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase during the forecast period
3.3.2. The threat from Boko Haram, drug trafficking, cybercrime, and money laundering to drive the homeland security market
3.3.3. Nigeria falls under the 'worst affected category' by terrorist attack
3.3.4. Nigeria faces high level of threat from foreign as well as domestic terrorist organizations
3.3.5. Nigeria has a terrorism Index Score of 9.2
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. The country's defense budget is expected to increase during the forecast period
3.4.2. Nigerian military expenditure is limited compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
3.4.3. The country allocates a lower percentage of GDP to defense
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft
3.5.2. Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV)
3.5.3. Attack Helicopters
3.5.4. Transport Aircrafts
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Limited capability of the domestic defense market drives imports
4.1.2. Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period
4.1.3. China, the US, and Italy account for the majority of the country's defense imports
4.1.4. Aircraft and ships are the largest imported military hardware
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Nigeria does not export arms due to its underdeveloped domestic arms industry
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium to high
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Nigeria does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2. FDI in the defense sector prohibited by the Nigerian government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Direct selling is the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption acts as an obstacle for market entry
6.3.2. Small defense budget discourages major suppliers
6.3.3. Unorganized mismanaged industry jeopardizes development of domestic industry
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: overview
7.2.2. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: products and services
7.2.3. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: alliances
7.2.5. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent contract awards
7.2.6. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: overview
7.2.7. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: products and services
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Economic Performance
8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services
8.1.5. Gross National disposable income (USD Bn)
8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$
8.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn)
8.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies (% GDP)
8.1.9. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
8.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
8.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
8.1.12. Services Imports as a % of GDP
8.1.13. Services Exports as a % of GDP
8.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment
8.1.15. Net FDI as a percentage of GDP
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Bn)
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer


List of Tables
Table 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN billionand US$ billion), 2012-2021
Table 2: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2021
Table 3: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2021
Table 4: Nigerian Defense Capital Expenditure (NGN Billion and US$ Million), 2012-2021
Table 5: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2012-2021
Table 6: Nigerian Defense Expenditure for Army (NGN billion and US$ Million), 2012-2021
Table 7: Nigerian Defense Expenditure for Navy (NGN billion and US$ Million), 2012-2021
Table 8: Nigerian Defense Expenditure for Air Force (NGN billion and US$ Million), 2012-2021
Table 9: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2021
Table 10: Nigerian Homeland Security Expenditure (NGN Billion and US$ billion), 2012-2021
Table 11: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016
Table 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021
Table 13: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria - Main Products
Table 14: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances
Table 15: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards


List of Figures
Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2012-2021
Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2012-2021
Figure 3: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2021
Figure 4: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2021
Figure 5: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN Billion), 2012-2021
Figure 6: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2012-2021
Figure 7: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2012-2021
Figure 8: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (NGN Billion), 2012-2021
Figure 9: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2012-2021
Figure 10: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (NGN Billion), 2012-2021
Figure 11: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy(US$ Billion), 2012-2021
Figure 12: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (NGN Billion), 2012-2021
Figure 13: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2012-2021
Figure 14:Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2021
Figure 15: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (NGN billion), 2012-2021
Figure 16: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2012-2021
Figure 17: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2016
Figure 18: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016
Figure 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Figure 20: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2016 and 2021
Figure 21: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2016
Figure 22: Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026
Figure 23: Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) Helicopters Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026
Figure 24: Attack Helicopters Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026
Figure 25: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2016- 2026
Figure 26: Nigerian Defense Import Trend, 2011-2015 (TIV values)
Figure 27: Nigerian Defense Imports by Country (US$ Million), 2011-2015
Figure 28: Nigerian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2011-2015
Figure 29: Industry Dynamics - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 30: Nigeria's GDP per capita, 2016-2025
Figure 31: Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2016-2025
Figure 32: Nigeria's Exports of goods and services (LCU), 2005-2014
Figure 33: Nigeria's Imports of goods and services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 34: Nigeria's Gross National disposable income (US$ Bn), 2005-2012
Figure 35: Nigeria's LCU per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 36: Nigeria's Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn), 2005-2012
Figure 37: Nigeria's Market capitalization of listed companies (% GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 38: Nigerian Government cash surplus/deficit as a % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012
Figure 39: Nigeria's Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 40: Nigeria's Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 41: Nigeria's Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 42: Nigeria's Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 43: Nigeria's Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 44: Nigeria's Net FDI as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 45: Nigeria's Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn) 2005-2014

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