Autonomous Vehicles

  • August 2013
  • -
  • Navigant Research
  • -
  • 72 pages

Self-Driving Vehicles, Autonomous Parking, and Other Advanced Driver Assistance Systems: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

Individual advanced driver assistance features have been available in the luxury vehicle market for some years, but a notable advance came in 2012 when functions such as adaptive cruise control and lane departure warning were offered on standard cars for the first time. Combinations of these features are now being brought to market in some 2014 models to offer semi-autonomous driving. Increasing volumes and technology improvements mean that it is now feasible to install the multiple sensors necessary for such capability thanks to cost reductions.
The industry consensus is that autonomous driving will be available by 2020, but significant hurdles still remain. These obstacles are not technological. Advances in computing power and software development mean that features such as high-end image processing and sensor fusion are now ready for production. Rather, the factors that remain to be solved before rollout to the public are those of liability and legislation. Navigant Research forecasts that autonomous vehicles will gradually gain traction in the market over the coming two decades and by 2035, sales of autonomous vehicles will reach 95.4 million annually, representing 75% of all light-duty vehicle sales.
This Navigant Research report provides a detailed examination of the emerging market for advanced driver assistance features leading to semi-autonomous and autonomous driving. The report includes profiles of the leading vehicle manufacturers and suppliers along with an analysis of the drivers and inhibitors for sales of these vehicles. Forecasts for revenue and sales volumes, segmented by region, extend through 2035. The report also includes a review of the core driver assistance technologies that make self-driving vehicles possible.

Key Questions Addressed:

What are the key component technologies for autonomous driving?
Which self-driving features will come to market first?
When will the first autonomous vehicles be available?
What are the major benefits of autonomous vehicles?
Which factors must be resolved for implementation to happen?
How fast will the market grow and what is its revenue potential?
Who are the key players in this market?

Who needs this report?

Vehicle manufacturers
Automotive industry suppliers
Insurance companies
City managers
Fleet managers
Government agencies
Investor community

Table Of Contents

1. Executive Summary
1.1 What Is Autonomous Driving?
1.2 Market Drivers
1.3 Technology Issues
1.4 Forecast Highlights
2. Market Drivers
2.1 Vision of the Future
2.2 Driver Benefits
2.3 Safety
2.4 Insurance
2.5 Traffic Flow
2.6 Smart Cities
2.7 Legislation and Government Activity
2.8 Fleet Perspective
2.9 Military Applications
2.10 Societal Benefits
2.11 Next-Generation Customers
3. Technology Issues
3.1 Underlying Technology
3.1.1 Advanced Driver Assistance System
3.1.2 Vehicle-to-X
3.1.3 Navigation Systems
3.2 Levels of Autonomy
3.2.1 Adaptive Speed Control
3.2.2 Automatic Emergency Braking
3.2.3 Automatic Lane Maintain
3.2.4 Freeway Driving Mode
3.2.5 Traffic Jam Mode
3.2.6 Autonomous Parking System
3.2.7 Self-Driving Mode
3.2.8 Autonomous Driving
3.3 Smart Cities
3.4 Electric Vehicles
3.5 Sensors
3.6 The Influence of Other Industries
4. Key Industry Players
4.1 OEMs
4.1.1 Audi AG
4.1.2 BMW AG
4.1.3 Chrysler
4.1.4 Daimler AG
4.1.5 FIAT S.p.A.
4.1.6 Ford Motor Company
4.1.7 General Motors
4.1.8 Honda Motor Company
4.1.9 Mazda
4.1.10 Mitsubishi Motors Corp.
4.1.11 Nissan Motor Company
4.1.12 PSA Peugeot Citroën
4.1.13 Renault S.A.
4.1.14 Tesla Motors
4.1.15 Toyota Motor Corp.
4.1.16 Volkswagen
4.1.17 Volvo Car Corp.
4.2 Major Suppliers
4.2.1 Aisin
4.2.2 Autoliv Inc.
4.2.3 Continental AG
4.2.4 Delphi Automotive
4.2.5 DENSO Corp.
4.2.6 Harman International Industries
4.2.7 Hella KGaA Hueck and Co.
4.2.8 Robert Bosch GmbH
4.2.9 TRW Automotive
4.2.10 Valeo
4.3 Software Companies
4.3.1 Google Inc.
4.3.2 Microsoft
4.3.3 Mobileye
4.3.4 QNX Software Systems Ltd.
4.4 Other Industry Participants
4.4.1 2getthere
4.4.2 Connected Vehicle Trade Association
4.4.3 Ultra Global
4.4.4 Other Organizations
5. Market Forecasts
5.1 Global Forecasts
5.2 Regional Forecasts
5.3 Technology Forecasts
5.3.1 Adaptive Speed Control
5.3.2 Automatic Emergency Braking
5.3.3 Automatic Lane Maintain
5.3.4 Freeway Driving Mode
5.3.5 Traffic Jam Mode
5.3.6 Autonomous Parking System
5.3.7 Self-Driving Mode
5.3.8 Autonomous Driving
5.4 Market Value
5.5 Conclusions and Recommendations
6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Autonomous Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Vehicle Penetration Rate by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Availability/Take Rate Percentage by Autonomous Feature, World Markets: 2015-2035
Adaptive Speed Control Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Automatic Emergency Braking Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Automatic Lane Maintain Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Freeway Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Traffic Jam Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Parking System Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Self-Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Driving Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Driving Features Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Region, North America: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Region, Western Europe: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Region, Eastern Europe: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Region, Asia Pacific: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Region, Latin America: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Region, Middle East and Africa: 2015-2035

List of Tables

Other Organizations Active in Some Aspect of Autonomous Driving
Autonomous Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Example ADAS Systems in Production, United States and United Kingdom: 2013 Models
Estimated Market Price by Autonomous Driving Feature, World Markets: 2015
Autonomous Driving Feature Value Market Percentages by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Vehicle Penetration Rate by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Adaptive Speed Control Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Automatic Emergency Braking Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Automatic Lane Maintain Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Freeway Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Traffic Jam Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Parking System Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Self-Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Driving Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Feature, North America: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Feature, Western Europe: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Feature, Eastern Europe: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Feature, Asia Pacific: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Feature, Latin America: 2015-2035
Autonomous Feature Fitments by Feature, Middle East and Africa: 2015-2035

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