Description:
This report presents IDATE's regularly updated vision of developments in the linear TV and Video markets in the largest global economies up to 2017: TV and OTT video access modes: Terrestrial, Cable, Satellite, IPTV, fixed and mobile Internet

Region:
Europe: Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Scandinavia, Spain, Switzerland, The Netherlands, The United Kingdom - North America: Canada, USA - Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico - Asia-Pacific: Australia, China, South Korea, India, Japan - Africa & the Middle-East: South Africa, Egypt, Turkey

Keywords:
access services, advertising, analogue households, audiovisual revenue, audiovisual services, Blu-Ray, cable, catch-up TV, digital households, digital TV, DTH, DVD, free-to-air channels, free-to-air households, hybrid TV solutions, IPTV, linear TV, live TV, managed services, mobile video services, online viewing, OTT, OTT video, pay-TV, pay-TV penetration, pay-TV revenue, premium services, public funding, satellite, S-VoD, television, television market, terrestrial network, terrestrial TV, time-shifted TV, TV access, TV ad revenue, TV households, TV market, TV revenue, TV services, TV via satellite, video hard copies, video on demand, video on demand revenue, video on-demand revenue, video revenue, video services, viewing time, VoD, VoD revenue, VoD services

This deliverable is a part of the "World TV & New Video Services Markets" , including:
- a twice-yearly updated dataset
- a twice-yearly updated status report
- quarterly market insights
- privileged access to analysts

Indicators by country

Usage indicators
• Viewing time: live TV, catch-up TV, video on demand (VoD) on managed services and OTT
• The top free-to-air channels’ audience share
• Number of transactions: DVD and Blu-ray sales and rentals

Access indicators
• General access indicators: TV households, fixed and mobile internet accounts, 3G and 4G mobile subscribers
• Households’ main television access mode: terrestrial, satellite, cable, IPTV
• Digitization levels: analogue/digital split for each access mode
• Pay-TV penetration: pay-TV/free-to-air only split
• Customer numbers for the main pay-TV services
• Audience figures for the top TV channels for a selection of countries

Revenue indicators
• GDP; TV, Home video and on-demand video revenue’s share of GDP
• Income from public financing/licensing fees
• TV and online video (in-stream adverts) ad revenue
• Pay-TV revenue

Type of data
• Background data 2008-2011
• Estimates as of the end of 2012
• Forecasts for 2013-2017

Geographical coverage
• The global TV market is broken down into five main regions: Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia-Pacific and Africa the Middle East.
• Regional aggregate data include all countries in the region

Europe:
• Belgium
• France
• Germany
• Hungary
• Italy
• The Netherlands
• Poland
• Portugal
• Spain
• TheUK
• Russia
• Scandinavia
• Switzerland

North America:
• Canada
• USA

Latin America:
• Argentina
• Brazil
• Colombia
• Mexico

Asia-Pacific:
• Australia
• China
• South Korea
• India
• Japan

Africa & the Middle East:
• South Africa
• Egypt
• Turkey

Definitions

• Breakdown of video viewing time:
• Live TV viewing time: average time spent per day watching live TV programming on a television over a managed network, by all individuals that make up the population being examined
• Time-shifted TV viewing time: average time spent per day watching programmes recorded on a DVR or using a catch-up TV service on a television, over a managed network and in the week following its original broadcast, by all individuals that make up the population being examined
• Online viewing time: average time spent per day watching OTT videos, i.e. on the open access web. This includes catchup programming watched on a TV broadcaster’s website, VoD and S-VoD, and videos from social media sites viewed on a connected device (computer, smartphone, tablet, smart TV).

Only retail market sales are taken into account for income from video hard copies (DVD & Blu-ray). This includes DVD and Blu-ray retail sales and rentals.

We draw a distinction between four main types of access to live TV programming:
• The terrestrial network. “Terrestrial TV households” refers to all TV households receiving only or mainly television channels using a rooftop antenna.
• Satellite. “Satellite TV households" refers to all TV households receiving only or mainly television channels using a satellite dish.
• Cable. “Cable TV households" refers to all TV households receiving only or mainly television channels from a cable operator.
• IPTV. "IPTV households" refers to all TV households receiving only or mainly television channels using ADSL or optic fibre access networks.

For the purposes of this study, we only considered the main television in the household. Therefore, the sum of terrestrial, satellite, cable and IPTV households is always equal to the total number of TV households (no double counting). We also distinguish between:
• analogue households, receiving only analogue television channels, and digital households, receiving primarily digital television channels;
• free-to-air households: households receiving only free television channels and “paying” households, i.e. households receiving television channels through a pay-TV subscription.

Television broadcasters and pay-TV providers derive their revenue from three main sources:
• Public funding, here we include all public investment dedicated to funding the television sector, including licensing fees and State financing.
• Advertising. Here we measure the ad revenue earned by TV broadcasters, from both commercials on live TV and adverts on their catch-up services on managed networks (in-stream ads only). This includes public and commercial broadcasters, free-toair and pay-TV channels. When the net amounts were not available, gross turnover was used.
• Pay-TV revenue, which includes income from subscriptions and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) schemes. Here we measure the income that commercial pay-TV providers earn from subscriptions and pay-as-you-go sales.

Video on demand (VoD) revenue is broken down into four types of service:
• VoD services: pay-per-view buys that include video sales (i.e. permanent ownership of the content) and time-limited rental;
• S-VoD services: subscription-based VoD services that give customers unlimited access to a library of content;
• Ad revenue: the income generated by in-stream ads on OTT (i.e. openly available online) video services
• Mobile video services: income earned on OTT videos watched on a mobile device over cellular network.

Pay-TV segmentation

We distinguish two types of pay-TV service in the main markets:
• Access services. This refers to offers made up chiefly of free-to-air channels, with viewers being charged only for access to the service. Some premium products may be included, usually thanks to local partnerships between broadcasters and the service provider or a special promotional offer.
• The “access services” segment therefore includes cable companies’ CATV services and ISPs’ basic IPTV packages which are included in internet access + landline calling bundles at no extra charge, or when sold as an optional add-on to access services.
• Premium services. This refers to live programming channels or packages that can only be viewed by customers who subscribe separately from their telecom service or through a pay-as-you-go scheme.

The “premium services” segment therefore includes optional pay-TV channels and packages that are generally available over various systems: terrestrial, satellite, cable and IPTV.

A household may subscribe to both an access and a premium solution for the main TV set in the home. We therefore draw a distinction between those households that subscribe only to access services (access-only households) and those that subscribe to at least one premium TV offer (premium households). Households that subscribe to both are therefore counted as premium households.

Access and premium service revenue therefore includes:
• For access services: rights of access to CATV services, paid via subscription to a cable company or included in utility bills; the TV service’s share of the price of a bundle according to the provider (including a lower VAT rate) and income from access options.
• For premium services: income from the sale of subscriptions and pay-as-you-go cards.

Sources

Historical data are based on the following sources of information:
• publications from national regulatory authorities, ministries and national statistical organizations,
• operators’ financial reports,
• press releases.
These various sources have been confirmed and corroborated as necessary by our own expert estimates. Adjustments may have been made to figures from previous editions (new information available, error corrections, change in a country’s territorial borders, etc.)

Our forecasts are based on hypotheses on the expected changes in penetration rate for the various distribution networks (% of population) in the various markets and changes in ARPU.
The hypotheses are rooted in several factors:
• actual level of market development,
• perceived market potential based on the general rate of economic growth,
• national industrial context (especially planned rollouts),
• changes in consumer behaviour.

As concerns monetary and GDP data:
• Country market data are presented in local currency and converted to euros and dollars. Conversion rates (average International Monetary Fund exchange rate for 2012) are listed at the top of each tab.
• Background data and forecasts for national and regional GDP (based on IMF 2013 data) are converted to euros and national currency.

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary 5
• Key trends 6
• Cable, number one purveyor of TV programming 7
• Europe: a disparate landscape 8
• Despite real disparities, digital TV in over 50% of homes 9
• TV: top money-maker 10
• Asia-Pacific overtakes Europe for the first time 11
• The UK and Germany share top spot in Europe 12
• Strong correlation between TV access mode and pay-TV adoption rates 13
• USA: world’s biggest on-demand market 14

2. Methodology 15
• Indicators by country 16
• Definitions 17
• Pay-TV segmentation 18
• Sources 18

3. Viewer behaviour 21
• Stagnant live TV viewing 22
• How much is the development of on-demand sources hurting live programming? 23
• Is the hard copy dead? 24
• How will we watch TV in future? 25

4. TV services access modes 26
• The television set: still the most popular way to watch TV 27
• TV access worldwide 28
• Terrestrial TV’s structural decline 29
• Emerging markets: cable driving growth 30
• TV via satellite still making strides 31
• Limits of IPTV penetration 32
• The future of access modes 33
• Half of all households worldwide have access to digital TV in 2013 34
• Forces driving the progress of digital TV 35
• Timetable for the digital switchover worldwide 36
• The future progress of digital TV 37

5. TV industry revenue 38
• Growth of TV revenue worldwide 39
• Growth of linear TV revenue worldwide 41
• Growth of household spending on TV services 42
• Growth of pay-TV revenue worldwide 43
• TV access and premium services 44
• Growth of TV ad revenue worldwide 45
• Growth of TV revenue 45
• Growth of video hard copy sales worldwide 47
• Growth of video on-demand revenue worldwide 49

Who we are 51



Figures and Tables

• Breakdown of the globe’s TV households by access technology, 2012 7
• Breakdown of TV households in the biggest European markets by access technology, 2012 8
• Digital TV penetration worldwide in 2012 9
• Breakdown of TV market revenue in 2012 10
• Breakdown of TV market revenue in the biggest European markets in 2012 11
• Pay-TV penetration rates worldwide in 2012 12
• Change in TV access modes worldwide, 2009-2013 19
• TV households worldwide in 2012 19
• Change in terrestrial TV households’ share of the global total, 2009-2013 20
• Regional TV access mode split in 2012 20
• Cable’s penetration of TV households in 2012 21
• Veteran markets’ and BRIC nation households’ contribution to the increase in cable households between 2009 and 2012 21
• National rankings in terms of cable households, 2009, 2012-2013 and 2017 22
• National rankings in terms of cable TV penetration, 2009, 2012-2013 and 2017 22
• Change in households’ TV access modes worldwide, 2009-2012 23
• Growth of FTA satellite and satellite pay-TV households worldwide, 2009-2013 23
• National rankings in terms of satellite TV households, 2009, 2012-2013 and 2017 24
• National rankings in terms of satellite TV penetration, 2009, 2012-2013 and 2017 24
• Change in IPTV’s share of TV households worldwide, 2009-2013 25
• Growth of IPTV households in the top European markets and in the US, 2009-2013 25
• National rankings in terms of IPTV households, 2009, 2012-2013 and 2017 26
• National rankings in terms of IPTV penetration, 2009, 2012-2013 and 2017 26
• Forecast change in viewers’ choice of TV access channel, 2013-2017 27
• Growth of digital TV penetration worldwide, 2009-2013 29
• Regional digital TV penetration in 2012 29
• Comparison of digital TV and pay-TV penetration worldwide in 2012 30
• Growth of digital TV penetration worldwide by access mode 30
• Timetable for terrestrial broadcasting networks’ switchover to digital 31
• 10 biggest TV markets, 2009, 2012-13 and 2017 32
• Top 10 countries in terms of digital TV households, 2009, 2012-13 and 2017 32
• Forecast evolution of digital TV penetration worldwide, 2012 and 2017 33
• Breakdown of TV revenue by source, 2009-2013 35
• Regional split for global TV revenue in 2012 35
• Comparison of global TV revenue and GDP growth, 2009-2013 36
• TV revenue’s share of regional GDP, 2009-2013 36
• TV households’ spending on TV services by region in 2012 37
• Growth in spending per pay-TV household, 2009-2013 37
• Growth of pay-TV households worldwide by type of network 2009-2013 38
• Regional pay-TV revenue growth, 2008 and 2012 38
• Breakdown of pay-TV households by type of service in Japan, Germany, France and Italy, in 2012 39
• Breakdown of pay-TV revenue by type of service in Japan, Germany, France and Italy, in 2012 39
• Regional growth of TV ad revenue, 2009-2012 40
• Breakdown of ad revenue by media and by region, in 2012 40
• Forecast growth of TV market revenue by source, 2012-2017 41
• Top TV industry companies, by revenue 43
• Top 20 TV market players in 2011, by annual revenue 44
• Geographical footprint of pay-TV providers DirecTV, Canal+ and Modern Times Group (MTG) at the end of 2011 45

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