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Exploration of the Sub-region’s Top 3 Country Markets

This research service provides the production and investment forecasts for the cement industry within Southern Africa for the years 2009 to 2018. Three Southern African countries—South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—were selected for in-depth analysis based on their cement production capacity. The above mentioned countries have announced plans to spend significantly on expansion and upgrade projects during the forecast period from 2013 to 2018. The study also discusses the key market drivers and restraints for each country and provides an overview of the central participants within each market.

Executive Summary

• This research service offers an analysis of Southern Africa’s cement industry for the period 2009 to 2018.
• Although Southern Africa consists of countries, this analysis focuses solely on South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
• An in-depth analysis is provided for the aforementioned cement producing countries, outlining historic production and demand.
• The region’s cement production was estimated at million tonnes (Mmt) in 2012.
• South Africa accounted for % of the region’s cement output. This was followed by Zimbabwe at % of the production, and Zambia at %.
• In 2012, South Africa had four cement producers contributing to the country’s overall output of Mmt.
• Zambia had two cement producers contributing to the overall output of Mmt.
• Zimbabwe’s three cement producers were responsible for the country’s Mmt overall output.
• Cement production in the aforementioned region is expected to increase to Mmt in 2018 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of %.
• Growth of cement production in the three profiled countries is driven by the individual government’s infrastructure expansion plans, such as the creation of new roads and railway lines, amongst others.
• Factors that are expected to impact cement production within Southern Africa include the pressure on margins from high energy prices, skills shortages, and limited supply opportunities in neighbouring countries.

CEO’s Perspective

1. Low output growth is forecast for Southern Africa’s cement industry.
2. Growth in cement demand will be fueled by government infrastructure expansion projects.
3. South Africa’s cement industry will lead in terms of output growth.
4. Zimbabwe’s housing construction activities will lead to an increased demand for cement within the country.
5. Zambia’s power expansion projects will cause an increase in demand for cement.

Market Overview—Introduction to South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe’s Cement Industry

• Southern Africa consists of countries; however, the geographic scope for this study is limited to three countries: South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
• All of these countries both consume and produce cement within their borders.
• Between the three, South Africa has the largest economy and this has led the country to both consume and produce the majority of cement in the region.
• Zimbabwe is the second largest producer and consumer, followed by Zambia.
• Expenditure on infrastructure in the aforementioned countries is expanding, as governments are aimed at growing and diversifying the living standards.
• South Africa’s four cement companies produced Mmt of cement in 2012.
• Zambia has two cement companies, where the overall output for 2012 amounted to Mmt.
• Zimbabwe’s three cement companies supplied the region with a total of Mmt.

Market Overview—Definitions

Aggregates:
• Coarse particulate material used in construction.
• Includes sand, gravel, crushed stone, slag, recycled concrete, and geosynthetic aggregates.

CEM I, II, III, IV, and V:
A means of classification of cement that provides details on content and performance
• CEM means general purpose, suitable for most environments (e.g., CEM II A).
• Roman Numerals (‘I, II, III, IV, and V’):
- ‘I’ indicates pure cement with no extenders
- ‘II, III, IV, and V’ indicates composite cements
• ‘A, B, C’ indicates the proportion of extenders used, and is different for various classes.

Clinker:
• Cement clinker is the product of crushing, blending, and fine milling limestone with other materials containing silica, alumina, and iron oxides and heating the end result in a kiln at high temperatures, where the materials then react chemically.

Kiln:
• A furnace or oven in which cement making raw materials are burnt to produce clinker.

Revenue:
• The total amount of money earned by each company based on its products and services sold, over a specified time period.

Market Share:
• The sales volumes for each cement manufacturer expressed as a percentage of total cement sales volumes in South Africa, over a specific time period.
• This gives a general idea of the size of a company’s operations relative to the total market and its competitors.

Supply:
• The quantities of cement produced, over a specified time period, expressed in million tonnes (Mmt).

Currencies:
• The currencies used are the South African Rand (ZAR) and the US dollar ($). The exchange rate at the time of the study was on average, $1 = ZAR .

Market Overview—Research Scope

Geographic Scope
The geographic scope for this analysis will be limited to:
• South Africa
• Zambia
• Zimbabwe

Study Scope
This research service will focus on current and future production trends of the cement industry.

Expenditure Scope
This research service will focus on the following capital expenditure classifications:
• Capacity Expansion
• General Expenditure

Market Overview—Research Aims and Objectives

Research Aim:
To provide an informed analysis of the Southern African cement industry, discussing production trends for the region for the 2009 to 2018 period

The Core Objectives of the Study are to:
To provide a succinct overview of Southern Africa’s cement industry
Identify and discuss key market drivers and restraints of Southern Africa’s cement industry
Discuss historic production, supply, and demand trends of Southern Africa’s cement industry
Provide production forecast for Southern Africa’s cement industry

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

• Is the Southern African cement industry growing, and at what rate will it continue to grow between 2013 and 2018?
• What are the factors that are driving cement supply and demand growth within Southern Africa?
• Is self sufficiency an achievable task for Southern Africa’s cement producers in terms of supply and demand?
• Will capital investments achieve a positive return-on-investment for the region’s current and future cement suppliers?
• Between 2013 and 2018, will Southern Africa’s cement industry be exposed to the risk of greater consolidation through mergers and acquisitions?

Table Of Contents

Southern African Cement Industry Production and Investment Forecasts
Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Market Overview
3. Total Cement Industry
• Forecast and Trends
4. South African Cement Industry
5. Zambian Cement Industry
6. Zimbabwean Cement Industry
7. Investment Analysis
8. The Last Word (Conclusions and Implications)
9. Appendix
10. The Frost and Sullivan Story

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