EpiCast Report: Chronic Kidney Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022



Summary



Chronic kidney disease (CKD), or chronic renal disease, is an asymptomatic, long-term condition that damages the kidneys and leads to the loss of kidney function over time. CKD affects people of all ages; however, the risk is higher in people ages 65 years and older. Globally, the estimated prevalence of CKD is 7.2% in adults over the age of 30 years. The disease is more common in women than men, and is also more common in people of African and South Asian origin due to the high prevalence of diabetes in South Asians and hypertension in people of African origin. Based on the glomerular filtration rate, the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) classified CKD into five stages in 2002. Each stage of CKD requires different tests and treatments for management of the disease.

This report provides an overview of the risk factors and the global and historical trends for CKD in the 6MM. In addition, the report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast (2012–2022) of the prevalent cases of CKD segmented by sex, age (in five-year increments beginning at age 20 and ending at age =85 years), and stage in these markets.

GlobalData’s epidemiological forecast is supported by data from country-specific studies published in peer-reviewed journals. GlobalData epidemiologists obtained age- and sex-specific prevalence data for CKD in the 6MM from nationally-representative studies in each country to forecast the total prevalent cases of CKD during the forecast period (2012–2022).



A major strength of this analysis is the use of country-specific data and a uniform methodology across all the markets to forecast the prevalent cases of CKD. In addition, GlobalData epidemiologists provide segmentation of the CKD prevalent cases by stage per the KDOQI guidelines in each market, despite the stage-specific data being limited to certain age groups and stages.



Scope


- The Chronic Kidney Disease EpiCast report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of chronic kidney disease in the six major markets (6MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast (2012–2022) of the prevalent cases of chronic kidney disease segmented by age (in five-year increments beginning at age 20 and ending at age =85 years), sex, and stage (1–5) in the 6MM

- The chronic kidney disease epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists

- In-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 6MM.



Reasons to buy


- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global chronic kidney disease market.

- Quantify patient populations in the global chronic kidney disease market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for V therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

- Identify the percentage of chronic kidney disease prevalent cases that are in stages 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.

Table Of Contents

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 7
2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
3 Epidemiology 9
3.1 Disease Overview 9
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
3.2.1 Diabetic CKD patients are more likely to have complications of CKD 12
3.2.2 Hypertensive patients are three times more likely to develop ESRD 14
3.2.3 Obesity at a younger age significantly increases the risk for CKD later in life 15
3.2.4 Women are twice as likely to develop CKD as men 16
3.2.5 Family history increases the risk of developing CKD by up to 10 times 17
3.2.6 CVD is prevalent in almost 40% of CKD patients in stages 4 and 5 18
3.3 Global Trends 19
3.3.1 United States 20
3.3.2 5EU 24
3.4 Forecast Methodology 39
3.4.1 Sources Used 41
3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 45
3.4.3 Sources Not Used 50
3.5 Epidemiology Forecast for CKD (2012-2022) 52
3.5.1 Prevalent Cases of CKD 52
3.5.2 Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of CKD 54
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of CKD 55
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Prevalence of CKD 57
3.5.5 Prevalent Cases of CKD by Stage 58
3.6 Discussion 60
3.6.1 Conclusions on Epidemiological Trends 60
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 61
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 63
4 Appendix 64
4.1 Bibliography 64
4.2 About the Authors 73
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 73
4.2.2 Reviewers 73
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Health Policy 75
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 75
4.3 About GlobalData 76
4.4 About EpiCast 76
4.5 Disclaimer 77
1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: KDOQI Classification of CKD 10
Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for CKD 11
Table 3: Trends in the Prevalence (%) of CKD by Stage in the US 20
Table 4: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in the US (Cases per Million) 21
Table 5: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in the US (Cases per Million) 22
Table 6: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in Europe (Cases per Million) 24
Table 7: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in France (Cases per Million) 26
Table 8: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in France (Cases per Million) 28
Table 9: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in Germany (Cases per Million) 29
Table 10: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in Germany (Cases per Million) 30
Table 11: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in Italy (Cases per Million) 32
Table 12: Trends in the Incidence* and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in Italy (Cases per Million) 33
Table 13: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in Spain (Cases per Million) 34
Table 14: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in Spain (Cases per Million) 35
Table 15: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in the UK (Cases per Million) 37
Table 16: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in the UK (Cases per Million) 38
Table 17: Protocol For CKD Case Ascertainment Across All Studies Used in This Analysis 39
Table 18: 6MM, Sources of CKD Prevalence and Stage Data 40
Table 19: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD, Ages >20 Years, Men and Women, (N=Millions), 2012-2022 53
Table 20: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD, by Age, Men and Women, (N=Millions), (Row %), 2012 54
Table 21: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD, by Sex, Ages ?20 Years, N (Row %), 2012 56
Table 22: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD by Stage, Ages ? 20 Years, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2012 59
1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Trends in the Prevalence (%) of CKD by Stage in the US 21
Figure 2: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in the US (Cases per Million) 22
Figure 3: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence (%) of RRT for ESRD in the US (Cases per Million) 23
Figure 4: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in Europe (Cases per Million) 25
Figure 5: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in France (Cases per Million) 27
Figure 6: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in France (Cases per Million) 28
Figure 7: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in Germany (Cases per Million) 30
Figure 8: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in Germany (Cases per Million) 31
Figure 9: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in Italy (Cases per Million) 32
Figure 10: Trends in the Incidence* and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in Italy (Cases per Million) 33
Figure 11: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in Spain (Cases per Million) 35
Figure 12: Trends in Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in Spain (Cases per Million) 36
Figure 13: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of ESRD in the UK (Cases per Million) 37
Figure 14: Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of RRT for ESRD in the UK (Cases per Million) 39
Figure 15: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD, Ages >20 Years, Men and Women, 2012-2022 53
Figure 16: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD, by Age, Men and Women, 2012 55
Figure 17: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD, by Sex, Ages? 20 Years, 2012 56
Figure 18: 6MM, Age-Standardized Prevalence of CKD (%), Ages ?20 Years, Men and Women, 2012 58
Figure 19: 6MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD by Stage, Ages ?20 Years, Men and Women, 2012 59

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