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United Kingdom Renewables Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have not made alterations to our renewables capacity forecast in the wake of Brexit, as aplethora of punitive subsidy cuts over 2015 means that we already have incorporated a slowdown in thesector. As the exception, offshore wind power will drive growth over the next five years due to robustgovernment support and a robust project pipeline. Current policy uncertainty will ultimately slow the sectorpost-2020 as projects in the preliminary stages are halted.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The UK voted to leave the European Union on June 23 2016. We do not expect this to have a significantimpact on our 10-year forecast for UK's non-hydropower renewables sector. This will be the result of thepunitive cross-sector subsidy cuts that have been implemented over the last year under the Conservativegovernment. These cuts prompted us to already take a downbeat view on the UK renewables sector.Similarly, we continue to expect strong government support for the offshore wind sector amid tighteningpower supply margins over the coming decade. That said, the risk for capital intensive offshore windprojects in the preliminary phase of development being delayed have increased. The result is that we arecautious to include projects that target commissioning beyond 2021 into our forecast.

- On March 16 2016, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announced the budget for 2016 -which entailed significant cost reduction targets for offshore wind between 2021 and 2026. The budgetalso earmarked funding for a total of 4GW over this timeframe, which entails that a maximum of 660MWof offshore capacity will be supported annually.

- Wind power generation registered a growth spike over 2015, as a result of the strong winds over the year.The y-o-y growth figure of 26.4% means that the sector comprised about 13% of total power generation,and 55.7% of total non-hydropower renewables power generation.

- The Department of Energy and Climate Change forecast that expenditures for renewables subsidyschemes will go over the GBP7.6bn 2020-2021 spending limit allocated under the Levy ControlFramework by GBP1.5bn.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Renewables Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (United Kingdom 2015-2021) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
United Kingdom Renewables Forecast Scenario 11
Previous Subsidy Cuts Take The Sting Out Of Brexit 11
Latest Updates 16
Table: Less Punitive Small-Scale Solar FiT Cuts 32
Table: Capacity Caps For FiT Access To Curb Growth 33
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 40
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 40
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 42
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 43
United Kingdom Renewables Projects Database 44
Table: United Kingdom - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW) 44
Industry Risk Reward Index 45
United Kingdom Renewables Risk/Reward Index 45
Rewards 45
Risks 46
Market Overview 48
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 48
Targets 48
Table: Carbon Plan Budget Targets 48
Subsidies 49
Table: Softened Solar Cuts Still Punitive 50
Infrastructure 52
Table: Planned Interconnections Will Boost Power Supply 57
Competitive Landscape 58
EDF Energy 58
EON AG 58
RWE npower 60
Scottish Power 60
SSE 61
Dong Energy 61
Glossary 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Methodology 64
Methodology And Sources 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sources 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 66
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 68
Table: Weighting Indicators 69

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