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Summary
The volatile political scenario in the Ukraine along with Russia's armed aggression which resulted in violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty are the factors that are expected to fuel the growth in defense expenditure. The budget is expected to record a CAGR of 10.5%, to reach US$7.9 billion by 2020, from US$5.3 billion in 2016. In addition to the growing conflicts with Russia, Ukraine's security and defense forces transformation strategy, adopted in 2013, will trigger military spending in the coming years

Key Findings
- The defense expenditure recorded a CAGR of 7.41% between 2011 and 2015, and values US$2.1 billion in 2015

- The country's total defense expenditure during the forecast period is expected to be US$33.7 billion

- The average share of capital expenditure is expected to be 31.8% over the forecast period, compared to an average share of 15.4% during 2011-2015.

- Over the forecast period, the country's budget for homeland security is expected to be US$8.3 billion cumulatively

- The key areas of investment are expected to be helicopter, naval vessels, patrol boats, unmanned aerial vehicles and surveillance equipment

Synopsis
Strategic Defense Intelligence's - Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 report offers a detailed analysis with market size forecasts for 2016-2020. The factors that influence demand, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants are also covered.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

- Defense industry market size from 2016-2020, with highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. A snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns are provided

- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. The key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country are also detailed

- Porter's five forces analysis: study the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

- Import and export dynamics: review the prevalent trends in the country over the last five years

- Market opportunities: identify the top five defense investment opportunities from 2015 to 2025

- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: including an overview of leading players, key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Reasons To Buy
- Identify and track the global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams

- Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders, technical specifications and the country's expected investment pattern during 2016-2020

- Make correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the industry from 2016-2020 which includes the total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis

- Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities

- Channelize resources by identifying various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2016-2020

Table Of Contents

Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape, and Forecasts to 2020
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2. Executive Summary
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Ukrainian defense expenditure expected to record a CAGR of XX% over 2016.2020
3.1.2. Reform and development program, strained relationship with Russia, acquisition of new military hardware systems, and peacekeeping missions expected to drive Ukrainian defense expenditure
3.1.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation of overall defense budget expected to witness an increase during the forecast period
3.2.2. The Ukrainian Air Force accounts for the majority of the country.s defense expenditure
3.2.3. Ukrainian Army expenditure expected to register a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.2.4. Ukrainian Navy allocation of overall defense budget expected to increase
3.2.5. Ukraine expected to invest US$XX billion cumulatively in its air force over the forecast period
3.2.6. Direct subordination units (DSU) expenditure is projected to record a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period
3.2.7. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security expenditure expected to record a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.3.2. Organized crime, maritime security threats, and ethnic tensions expected to encourage investment in the procurement of homeland security equipment
3.3.3. Ukraine considered at .some risk. of terrorist attack
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. During the forecast period, Ukrainian defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 10.50%
3.4.2. Ukrainian military expenditure is limited compared to the world.s leading defense spenders
3.4.3. In comparison with the world.s leading defense spenders, Ukrainian defense expenditure, as a percentage of GDP, is moderate
3.4.4. According to the SDI Terrorism Index, Ukraine faces some risk of terrorist threat
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.5.1. Maritime defense equipment
3.5.2. Border Security
3.5.3. Air defense systems
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. A relatively small defense budget limits Ukraine.s defense imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Ukrainian arms exports to increase over the forecast period
4.2.2. The Ukrainian defense industry has a diverse consumer base
4.2.3. Armored vehicles and ships accounted for the majority of Ukrainian defense exports
5. Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to high
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low to high
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high
6. Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Ukraine follows a prohibitive defense industry FDI policy
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Joint development of defense goods provides investors with a market entry opportunity
6.2.2. Foreign investors can enter the industry through direct sales
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Small defense budget offers equipment manufacturers limited investment potential
6.3.2. Lack of necessary infrastructure impedes growth of domestic defense industry
6.3.3. Corruption and a lack of transparency discourages investors from entering the market
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Public Sector Companies
7.2.1. Antonov ASTC: overview
7.2.2. Antonov ASTC: products and services
7.2.3. Antonov ASTC: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Antonov ASTC: alliances
7.2.5. Antonov ASTC: recent contract wins
7.2.6. RPC Fort: overview
7.2.7. RPC Fort: products and services
7.2.8. RPC Fort: alliances
7.2.9. RPC Fort: recent contract wins
7.2.10. KMDB: overview
7.2.11. KMDB: products and services
7.2.12. KMDB: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.13. KMDB: recent contract wins
7.2.14. Malyshev Plant: overview
7.2.15. Malyshev Plant: products and services
7.2.16. Malyshev Plant: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.17. Malyshev Plant: recent contract wins
7.2.18. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: overview
7.2.19. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: products and services
7.2.20. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.21. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent contract wins
7.2.22. Motor Sich: overview
7.2.23. Motor Sich: products and services
7.2.24. Motor Sich: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.25. Motor Sich: alliances
7.2.26. Motor Sich: recent contract wins
8. Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Total Rural Population
8.1.2. Total Urban Population
8.1.3. Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion)
8.2.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices (US$ billion)
8.2.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices (US$ billion)
8.2.5. Gross National Disposable Income
8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (US$ billion)
8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index
8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per US$ (period average)
8.2.10. Local Currency Unit per EUR (period average)
8.2.11. Lending Rate (%)
8.2.12. Deposit Rate (%)
8.2.13. Real Interest Rate (%)
8.2.14. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
8.2.15. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
8.2.16. Total Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit (LCU Billion)
8.2.17. Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
8.2.18. Goods Exports as % of GDP
8.2.19. Goods Imports as % of GDP
8.2.20. Goods Balance as % of GDP
8.2.21. Services Imports as % of GDP
8.2.22. Services Exports as % of GDP
8.2.23. Services Balance as % of GDP
8.2.24. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion)
8.2.25. Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP
8.2.26. International Reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion)
8.2.27. External Debt as % of GDP
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
8.3.4. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.5. Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt Hours)
8.3.6. Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt Hours)
8.3.7. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas
8.3.8. Total Petroleum Consumption
8.3.9. Crude Oil Proved Reserves
8.3.10. Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts)
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1. Roads, total network
8.4.2. Rail lines (total route), total network
8.4.3. Air Transport (freight)
8.4.4. Overall Construction
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Research and Development Expenditure
8.6.2. Patents granted
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone Lines
8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate
9. Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer


List of Tables
Table 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 3: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2011-2015
Table 4: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2016-2020
Table 5: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2011-2015
Table 6: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2016-2020
Table 7: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2011-2015
Table 8: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2016-2020
Table 9: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Table 10: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Table 11: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2011-2015
Table 12: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2016-2020
Table 13: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 14: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 15: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (UAH Billion), 2011-2015
Table 16: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (UAH Billion), 2016-2020
Table 17: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 18: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 19: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (UAH Billion), 2011-2015
Table 20: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (UAH Billion), 2016-2020
Table 21: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 22: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 23: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (UAH Billion), 2011-2015
Table 24: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (UAH Billion), 2016-2020
Table 25: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 26: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 27: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Table 28: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Table 29: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Table 30: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 31: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH billion), 2011-2015
Table 32: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH billion), 2016-2020
Table 33: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Table 34: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 35: Competitive Landscape of the Ukrainian Defense Industry
Table 36: Antonov ASTC - Products and Services
Table 37: Antonov ASTC - Alliances
Table 38: Antonov ASTC - Recent Contract Wins
Table 39: RPC Fort - Products and Services
Table 40: RPC Fort - Alliances
Table 41: RPC Fort - Recent Contract Wins
Table 42: KMDB - Products and Services
Table 43: KMDB - Recent Contract Wins
Table 44: Malyshev Plant -Products and Services
Table 45: Malyshev Plant - Recent Contract Wins
Table 46: AvtoKrAZ Holding Company - Products and Services
Table 47: AvtoKrAZ Holding Company - Recent Contract Wins
Table 48: Motor Sich - Products and Services
Table 49: Motor Sich - Alliances
Table 50: Motor Sich - Recent Contract Wins


List of Figures
Figure 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011.2015
Figure 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016.2020
Figure 3: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2011.2015
Figure 4: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2016.2020
Figure 5: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2011.2015
Figure 6: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2016.2020
Figure 7: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2011.2015
Figure 8: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2016.2020
Figure9: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%), 2011.2015
Figure10: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%), 2016.2020
Figure 11: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2011.2015
Figure 12: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2016.2020
Figure 13: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2011.2015
Figure 14: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2016.2020
Figure 15: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (UAH Billion), 2011.2015
Figure 16: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (UAH Billion), 2016.2020
Figure 17: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2011.2015
Figure 18: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2016.2020
Figure 19: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (UAH Billion), 2011.2015
Figure 20: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (UAH Billion), 2016.2020
Figure 21: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2011.2015
Figure 22: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2016.2020
Figure 23: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (UAH Billion), 2011.2015
Figure 24: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (UAH Billion), 2016.2020
Figure 25: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2011.2015
Figure 26: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2016.2020
Figure 27: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011.2015
Figure 28: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016.2020
Figure 29: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2011.2015
Figure 30: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2016.2020
Figure 31: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH billion), 2011.2015
Figure 32: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH billion), 2016.2020
Figure 33: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
Figure 34: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015
Figure 35: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2011.2015 vs. 2016.2020
Figure 36: Benchmarking with World.s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020
Figure 37: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP . 2015
Figure 38: Ukrainian Arms Exports Trend, 2009.2013 (TIV values)
Figure 39: Ukrainian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2010.2014
Figure 40: Ukrainian Defense Exports by Weapons Category (%), 2010.2014
Figure 41: Industry Dynamics . Porter.s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 42: Ukrainian Rural Population (In Millions), 2010.2019
Figure 43: Ukrainian Urban Population (In Millions), 2009.2019
Figure 44: Ukrainian Number of Households (In Millions), 2008.2017
Figure 45: Ukrainian GDP Per Capita, 2008.2017
Figure 46: Ukrainian GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2010.2019
Figure 47: Ukrainian Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2004.2013
Figure 48: Ukrainian Imports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2004.2013
Figure 49: Ukrainian Gross National Disposable Income, 2002.2011
Figure 50: Ukraine.s Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 51: Ukrainian Consumer Price Index, 2008.2017
Figure 52: Ukrainian Wholesale Price Index, 2003-2012
Figure 53: Local Currency Unit per US$, 2009.2018
Figure 54: Local Currency Unit per EUR, 2008.2017
Figure 55: Ukrainian Lending Rate (%), 2003.2012
Figure 56: Ukrainian Deposit Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 57: Ukrainian Real Interest Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 58: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies in Ukraine (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 59: Ukrainian Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2003-2012
Figure 60: Ukrainian Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit (LCU Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 61: Ukrainian Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002-2011
Figure 62: Ukrainian Goods Exports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 63: Ukrainian Goods Imports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 64: Ukrainian Goods Balance as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 65: Ukrainian Services Imports as % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 66: Ukrainian Services Exports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 67: Ukrainian Services Balance as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 68: Ukrainian Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 69: Ukrainian Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 70: Ukrainian International Reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 71: Ukrainian External Debt as % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 72: Ukrainian Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002-2011
Figure 73: Ukrainian Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2003-2012
Figure 74: Ukrainian Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts Hours), 2003-2012
Figure 75: Ukrainian Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 76: Ukrainian Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2003-2012
Figure 77: Ukrainian Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2003-2012
Figure 78: Ukrainian Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2005-2014
Figure 79: Ukrainian Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003-2012
Figure 80: Ukrainian Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Million Barrels), 2004-2013
Figure 81: Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 82: Roads, Total Network (Km), 2002-2011
Figure 83: Rail Lines, Total Route (Km), 2003-2012
Figure 84: Air Transport (Freight), Million ton-km, 2003-2012
Figure 85: Overall Construction (US$ Million), 2006-2014
Figure 86: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 87: Research and Development Expenditure (Local Currency Thousands), 2000-2009
Figure 88: Patents Granted, 2003-2012
Figure 89: Telephone Lines in Ukraine (in Millions), 2003-2012
Figure 90: Telephone Lines Penetration Rate in Ukraine (per 100 people), 2003-2012

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