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Intellinews - Ukraine Construction Sector Report - September 2013

  • September 2013
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 19 pages

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Ukraine’s economy contracted by 1.1% y/y in the second quarter of 2013 mainly due to shrinking industrial output. The GDP dropped by a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% q/q in Q2. In the first quarter of the year, the GDP declined by 1.1% y/y with the construction sector registering the steepest fall of 14.85% y/y. Ukraine's economic growth slowed down to 0.2% in 2012 from 5.2% in 2011 and analysts’ forecasts for this year range from a GDP decline of 0.5% to a 1% growth.
After declining by 1.8% y/y in 2012, the industrial output continued its negative trend throughout H1. In July, Ukraine’s industrial production decreased by 4.9% y/y, following a 5.7% drop in June and a 9.3% decline in May.

Because of the global economic slowdown and the slowdown of Ukrainian economy in particular, the purchasing capacity of the population is still low. This, alongside with absence of the mortgages and growing rates of the taxation of operations with the real estate, led to stagnation of the market. The volume of construction works in Ukraine declined by 17.7% y/y to UAH 28.2bn (USD 3.5bn) in Jan-July. In 2012 the sector contracted by 12.1% y/y to UAH 62.3bn. In particular, the volume of construction of buildings and structures was UAH 13.44bn (including residential buildings worth UAH 5.08bn and non-residential buildings worth UAH 8.36bn). The volume of works in the civil engineering sector stood at UAH 14.73bn. These types of construction work accounted for 47.7% (18% and 29.7%) and 52.3% of the total volume of construction work in the country, respectively.

New construction, reconstruction, and technical upgrade work accounted for 82.3% of the total volume of the work performed in the first seven months of the year, while major repairs and routine repairs accounted for 10.2% and 7.5%, respectively.
We forecast negative outlook for Ukraine’s real estate sector in general, however, the industry may begin to show some signs of recovery in H2 due to a number of factors, such as improving regional outlook, and a possible deal with Russia or the IMF as well as signing the FTA Agreement with EU.

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