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  4. > China Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

China Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 90 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

China's weight in the global agricultural sector is swelling, as the country has a growingimpact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for keycommodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy andlivestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment andconsolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusinesssector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in2015.Key Forecasts

- Corn production growth to 2018/19: 11.0% to 242mn tonnes. Given the decrease in governmentsupport for corn production, output expansion will be driven by steady improvements in yields and theprobable adoption of genetically modified corn varieties in the coming years. However, strongconsumption expansion means China will fall into a production deficit by the end of our forecast period,totalling around 5mn tonnes.

Table Of Contents

China Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT .. 10
Agribusiness ... 10
Industry Forecast .. 12
Grains Outlook ... 12
Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook . 13
Table: China - Risks To Grains Outlook 13
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (China 2011-2019) 18
Rice Outlook ... 19
Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook . 19
Table: China - Risks To Rice Outlook 20
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne) . 21
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (China 2011-2019) 22
Oilseeds Outlook . 23
Table: China - Soybean Production And Consumption Outlook . 23
Table: China - Risks To Soybean Outlook 24
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (China 2011-2019) 27
Sugar Outlook . 28
Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 28
Table: China - Risks To Sugar Outlook . 29
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (China 2011-2019) . 32
Cotton Outlook 33
Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook . 34
Table: China - Risks To Cotton Outlook 34
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (China 2011-2019) 38
Dairy Outlook . 39
Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 39
Table: China - Risks To Dairy Outlook . 40
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (China 2011-2019) . 46
Livestock Outlook 48
Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 49
Table: China - Risks To Livestock Outlook . 50
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (China 2011-2019) . 54
Commodities Price Analysis . 56
Global Commodities Strategy . 56
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 56
Upstream Analysis 58
Asia Machinery Outlook ... 58
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (Cnybn) . 61
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares . 61
Asia Fertiliser Outlook . 64
Asia GM Outlook . 68
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) . 71
Downstream Analysis ... 72
Food . 72
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (China 2012-2019) 73
Confectionery 74
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (China 2012-2019) 75
Regional Overview 77
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 81
Competitive Landscape 83
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies 83
Demographic Forecast . 84
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 85
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) . 85
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) . 86
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 86
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) . 87
Methodology .. 89
Industry Forecast Methodology 89
Sector-Specific Methodology 90

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