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Uganda Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 36 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates



BMI View: Investment flows to bring Uganda's oil reserves will be the main driver of construction industrygrowth throughout our forecast period, through the development of the nascent oil industry and theassociated infrastructure.Forecast & Industry Developments

- We continue to forecast 7.1% real growth for 2016 and an annual average rate of 7.7% in real terms overour 10-year forecast period to 2025. Oil infrastructure will remain the main driver of growth as well asthrough the additional revenue stream from exports being funnelled into the government's ambitiousinfrastructure development plans.

- We anticipate the highest growth over our forecast period to be recorded in 2021 (10.1% in real terms)rather than 2020, owing to further delays in bringing reserves online.

- Nominal industry value is expected to almost triple over our forecast period, from an estimatedUSD3.2bn in 2015 to USD9.2bn in 2025, although Uganda will remain one of the smaller markets in EastAfrica. This small size will weigh on the rewards on offer for investors, given the risks in exposure to amarket without significant and long-term opportunities that come with larger markets.

Table Of Contents

Uganda Infrastructure Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Five-Year Forecast Scenario (Uganda 2016-2020) 5
Table: Risk/Reward Index (Uganda 2016) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Infrastructure And Construction Forecast Scenario 9
Table: 10-Year Forecast Scenario (Uganda 2016-2025) 9
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
Uganda - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 18
Rewards 18
Risks 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 20
Table: SSA RRI 27
Methodology 29
Industry Forecast Methodology 29
Sector-Specific Methodology 30
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 34
Sector-Specific Methodology 35
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 35
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 36

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