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China Retail Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: During a difficult 2015 for China, robust household income growth has been one of the fewsilver linings to the country's slowdown. This translates well into continued retail sales for the coming 2016year, supported by rising incomes and strong employment. However, this will be a slight drop off from 2015as the slowdown begins to take its toll. We expect private consumption growth to outperform the remainderof the economy and this will be helped by the high savings rate of Chinese households, as their balancesheets are in solid shape for continued spend over the coming years.

Key BMI Forecasts

- We expect total household spending to be USD5,296bn in 2016, up by 5.3% y-o-y.
- Food & non-alcoholic drinks spending will reach USD1,310bn in 2016, while transport spendingwill amount to USD541.3bn.
- Household numbers will reach 460mn in 2016, representing 0.9% growth y-o-y.
- China sits in second position out of 20 countries in BMI's Retail Risk/Reward Index for the Asia Pacificregion. The country scores highly for its strong forecast household spending growth and for its hugepopulation. These factors are, however, offset by under-developed physical and labour infrastructure andits long-term inflation outlook.

Table Of Contents

China Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economy 11
Industry Forecast 12
Headline Retail Forecast 12
Table: Total Household Spending (China 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (China 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (China 2012-2019) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (China 2012-2019) 18
Retail Sector Forecast 20
Food and Drink 21
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (China 2012-2019) 23
Clothing and Footwear 23
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (China 2012-2019) 25
Household Goods 25
Table: Household Goods Spending (China 2012-2019) 27
Personal Care and Effects 27
Table: Personal Care Spending (China 2012-2019) 28
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 29
Table: Household Income Data (China 2012-2019) 30
Table: Labour Market Data (China 2012-2019) 34
Demographic Forecast 35
Table: Total Population (China 2012-2019) 37
Table: Population: Babies (China 2012-2019) 38
Table: Population: Young Children (China 2012-2019) 38
Table: Population: Children (China 2012-2019) 38
Table: Population: Young People (China 2012-2019) 39
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (China 2012-2019) 39
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (China 2012-2019) 40
Table: Population: 21yrs + (China 2012-2019) 40
Table: Population: Young Adults (China 2012-2019) 41
Table: Population: Middle Aged (China 2012-2019) 41
Table: Population: Urban (China 2012-2019) 42
Macroeconomic Forecasts 43
Economic Analysis 43
Table: Economic Activity (China 2010-2019) 46
Industry Risk Reward Index 47
Asia Risk/Reward Index 47
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 47
China Risk Reward Index 48
Rewards 48
Risks 49
Market Overview 51
Competitive Landscape 55
Department Store Groups 55
Mass Grocery Retail 56
Fashion 57
Household Goods 58
Glossary 60
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sources 70
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 70
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 71
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 73

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