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Analysis of the Global Type 2 Diabetes Therapeutics Market

  • September 2013
  • 326 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 1650897

Summary

Table of Contents

Market Opportunities for Differentiated Therapeutics

Type 2 diabetes is one of the most significant global health concerns of modern times. The size of the diabetes therapeutics market has stimulated a vast and growing pipeline of potential new therapies aimed at the unmet needs of tighter glucose control, improved safety profiles, and greater convenience to patients. This research service evaluates the global market for the pharmaceutical management of type 2 diabetes from 2009 to 2017, with 2012 as the base year. Segmentation by drug type (insulin and non-insulin therapeutics) and regional breakdown are provided. Included are products available in the market, products in development, and patient and revenue forecasts. Market challenges, drivers, and restraints are identified and assessed.

Methodology

•The information contained in this research service was derived from a variety of relevant primary and secondary sources.
•Primary interviews were conducted with industry participants in positions such as chairman and CEO, director of investor relations, director of business development, chief business officer, media relations, and international key opinion leaders (KOL).
•Secondary data sources include disease and public health organization Web sites [International Diabetes federation (IDF), World Health Organization (WHO), American Diabetes Association (ADA)]; company publications (annual reports, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, investor presentations, earnings transcripts, and press releases; government public sources; pharmaceutical industry databases; and published articles in scientific and medical journals.
•For the US, revenue forecasting is performed using a robust, data-driven, bottom-up, patient-based approach. Marketed drugs and potential new entrants in Phase 3 of development and beyond are individually forecast, and aggregate figures are provided. For other regions, forecasting is performed using a top-down model.

Key Findings

•Type 2 diabetes is one of the most significant global health concerns of modern times. According to the International Diabetes Federation, more than X million people have been diagnosed with diabetes, and an additional Xmillion are living with undiagnosed diabetes.
•No longer a disease exclusive to developed countries, type 2 diabetes is rapidly overwhelming developing countries such as China and India as more countries adopt the westernized lifestyle that largely contributes to the increasing prevalence.
•The global revenue earned from sales of drugs to treat type 2 diabetes was approximately $X billion in 2012. The rapidly increasing incidence of the disease globally will drive this figure to approximately $X billion by 2017.
•The market for type 2 diabetes therapeutics in China is growing rapidly and is expected to outpace Europe to become the second largest market by 2017. South Korea and Vietnam are also forecast to experience rapid growth.
•Overall, the growth rate of the insulin segment exceeds that of the non-insulin segment.
•The market for diabetes drugs has many barriers to entry, particularly for the insulin segment, which requires a great deal of specialization. The inherent risk involved includes failure to receive marketing approval after a relatively large investment of time and money, which limits this market to those organizations with the necessary expertise and capital.
•Due to the chronic nature of the disease and the numerous co-morbidities that make this patient population particularly sensitive to long-term drug safety, the clinical and regulatory hurdles are considerable. However, the immense size of the potential market has stimulated a vast and growing pipeline of potential new therapies aimed at addressing the unmet needs of tighter glucose control, improved safety profiles, and greater convenience to patients.
•The insulin segment of this market, estimated to be approximately X% of the total type 2 diabetes therapeutics market in 2012, is boosted by the improvements seen with modern insulins including improved pharmacokinetic profiles and reduced risk of hypoglycemia—the main drawback to insulin therapy. Several insulin analogues in development have the potential to offer better overall outcomes resulting from their liver-targeted action.
•The non-insulin segment has been enhanced by the arrival of a novel drug class with the first-in-class sodium-glucose transporter-2 (SGLT2) Forxiga (dapagliflozin) launched in Europe in late 2012 and close competitor Invokana (canagliflozin) approved in the US in March 2013. This class, the first novel class since 2006, offers important added benefits over existing therapies such as weight loss and blood pressure lowering.

Scope and Segmentation

Geographic coverage: Global
Study period: 2009–2017
Base year: 2012
Forecast period: 2013–2017
Monetary unit: US Dollars

•This research service evaluates the global market for type 2 diabetes therapeutics. It does not evaluate other diabetes care markets such as glucose meters and supplies, insulin syringes, insulin pumps, or glucose tablets and other nutritionals.
•Included are insulin and insulin analogues, oral antidiabetic drugs (OAD) and injectable antidiabetic drugs apart form insulin.
•In-depth analysis is provided for the major markets of the US and Europe. The emerging markets of China, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India are also evaluated with an emphasis on the regional environment.
•Units are defined as patients. Treated patient numbers, when estimated, are derived from annual sales revenue and annual cost of therapy.
•The price is the annual cost of therapy. Average annual cost of therapy is based on the average wholesale price (AWP) per drug, as reported in Thomson Reuters Red Book. Hospital or clinic-associated expenses are not included in the cost of therapy.
•Indication-specific annual revenue, as reported, is used when available; otherwise, estimates are used.

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

• Is the market growing, how long will it continue to grow, and at what rate? Which segments and geographic regions are experiencing the fastest growth?
• How will the competitive landscape be affected by new product launches and patent expiries? How do the product profiles of new products compare to existing products?
• What are the remaining unmet needs of diabetes patients? How can participants and emerging competitors meet these needs?
• What are the major trends affecting the growth of this market? What are the biggest risks for participants or potential participants?
• What are the biggest opportunities and risks in emerging markets? What is the relative impact of social, economic, pricing constraints, and regulatory factors on emerging market penetration?
• How competitive is this market? Is this market trending toward increasing or decreasing competitiveness?

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