Solar Power Opportunities - Eurasia

  • November 2013
  • -
  • Energici Holdings Inc
  • -
  • 282 pages

There are so many opportunities to invest in solar power around the World. But how do you decide where to invest? Which are the most attractive markets, both in terms of solar power fundamentals and the general business environment?

This report, Solar Power Opportunities - Eurasia, provides a comparative framework for analysing the potential and relative attractiveness of national-level solar markets in Eurasia and for assessing macro conditions, access to market, national energy policy, growth potential of renewable energy and infrastructure considerations.

The report provides both a regional summary of solar power trends across Eurasia, SWOT analyses for the top 10 most attractive actual and potential solar markets and detailed, individual country factsheets for Ukraine, Lithuania, Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Latvia, the 6 markets in Eurasia with current installed solar capacity over 1 megawatt.

INTRODUCTION
In 2012, total installed solar power capacity across Eurasia reached 383 megawatts from 9 countries, representing 0.11% of all power capacity (conventional + renewable) and 0.53% of total renewable power capacity in Eurasia. The largest solar market was Ukraine with 372 megawatts or 97.24% of total regional solar capacity.

Beyond this current installed capacity, there exist many opportunities for solar power developments across the region. This report assesses those opportunities from both a Solar Market and a Business Environment perspective, providing a comparative framework for analysing the potential and relative attractiveness of national-level solar markets in Eurasia and for assessing macro conditions, access to market, national energy policy, growth potential of renewable energy and infrastructure considerations.

FEATURES AND BENEFITS
A comprehensive analysis of the state of the solar market in Eurasia at a regional and national level.
Detailed individual country factsheets for each of Ukraine, Lithuania, Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Latvia.
Analysis of both the state of the regional and national solar market and the general business environment.
Comparisons to other solar markets regionally and worldwide and to other power sectors (Biomass and Waste, Geothermal, Hydroelectric and Wind) locally.
All markets are reviewed independently and relative to other markets across Eurasia.
Underpinned by a comprehensive model of the World's renewable markets, featuring 19,000 data points across 214 geographic entities.

HIGHLIGHTS
Out of the 15 countries in Eurasia, 9 have existing installed solar power capacity, which combined, represent 0.38% of solar power capacity installed worldwide. The top 9 markets based on installed solar capacity are Ukraine, Lithuania, Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Latvia, Estonia, Tajikistan and Armenia.

Looking beyond pure installed capacity though, the top 10 most attractive solar markets in Eurasia however are Ukraine, Russia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia, Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, based on market attractiveness indices that range for the 10 countries from 60 - 86 with a median 74 (where 0 is least attractive and 100 is most attractive).

Most attractive indices are calculated using a MABA analysis employing over 100 variables reviewing the state of the local power market and macro and micro business operating conditions. Countries are then ranked comparative to all others worldwide.

At the regional level, Eurasia had a median market attractiveness index of 64 out of 100, compared to the leading region, Europe, with a median index of 83. This ranked Eurasia in 2nd place relative to the 7 World regions (Africa, Americas, Asia, Eurasia, Europe, Middle East, Oceania). The range of indices for all countries in Eurasia was 23 - 86, World indices range from 0 - 100).

QUESTIONS ANSWERED
What are the regional capacity trends and policy developments in solar power across Eurasia?
Which markets across Eurasia have the most potential for development of solar power generation facilities?
Which potentially attractive solar markets in Eurasia also have a positive business environment conducive to investors?
What are the key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the most attractive solar markets in Eurasia?
How relevant is solar power in markets with current installed solar capacity, compared to other solar markets worldwide and compared to other power sectors (e.g. conventional, hydro, wind etc) locally?
What is the outlook for solar power over the next 5 years?
What are the key policy drivers affecting both the development of solar and renewable power for each market?

ABOUT ATTRACTIVENESS
The relative attractiveness of a country's solar market can be viewed from both a market and business perspective.

Market Attractiveness considers the relative merits of the renewable and solar sectors in the top markets in a given market based on power capacity and generation trends and specific solar related variables. Attractive markets may or may not have existing installed solar capacity.

Business Attractiveness considers how safe, easy and practical it is to invest in the power market in a given market by considering generic macro-economic, access to market and operating environment issues.

Each country is rated on over 100 variables and assigned a Market Attractiveness and a Business Attractiveness index, ranked relative to all other countries worldwide.

The analysis employed in these factsheets is based on a comprehensive, regularly updated, quantitative and qualitative model with over 19,000 data points across 214 geographic entities.

The regional and individual country factsheets are packed with detailed analysis, charts and tables incorporating the latest available data on capacity and generation trends at the national level. Data coverage is from 1992 with outlooks through to 2017.

KEY REASONS TO PURCHASE THIS REPORT
Gain a clear understanding of the relative attractiveness of solar markets in Eurasia from both a Market and Business perspective.
Simplify yet enhance opportunity analysis using a standard framework covering a full range of socioeconomic, trade, legislative, business, renewable, solar and network issues.
Facilitate decision making based on a clear understanding of the trends and predictions shaping this regional solar market.
Understand the importance of these trends relative to other renewable power sectors and relative to regional and global trends.
Obtain detailed historical and forecast market analysis for each of Ukraine, Lithuania, Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Latvia; the 9 countries in the region with existing installed solar capacity.

KEY DATA POINTS
- installed capacity (total, per capita, per GDP, per sq km)
- added capacity
- net generation
- % of total capacity
- % of renewable capacity
- % of non-hydro renewable capacity
- % net generation
- 1 year growth rates %
- 5 year compound annual growth rates %
- capacity : generation ratios
- capacity factors
- policy landscape covering Regulatory Policies and Incentives, Fiscal Incentives and Public Financing
- SWOT analysis
- 31 Market variables in 4 categories : Total Power, Renewables, Solar Market, Network
- 71 Business variables in 12 categories : Security, Social, Technological, Economic, Political, Trade, Barriers to Trade, Legislative, Policy, Incentives, Operations and Financing

Table Of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS / REGIONAL SUMMARY

1. About Attractiveness

2. Executive Summary
2.1. A snapshot of relative attractiveness : top 10 markets
2.2. A snapshot view of category scores by top 10 market

3. Trends in solar capacity
3.1 Total installed solar capacity across Eurasia
3.2 Installed solar capacity by country
3.3 Eurasia's share of World installed solar capacity
3.4 The relevance of solar power to the total power mix in Eurasia
3.5 The relevance of solar power to the renewable power mix in Eurasia
3.6 Trends in solar power capacity growth relative to other renewable power sectors
3.7 Outlook for solar capacity
3.8 Solar power dataset, 1992 - 2017

4. Policy Landscape (all markets)

5. SWOT analyses (top 10 markets)
5.1 Ukraine
5.2 Russia
5.3 Estonia
5.4 Kazakhstan
5.5 Lithuania
5.6 Latvia
5.7 Armenia
5.8 Georgia
5.9 Tajikistan
5.10 Kyrgyzstan

6. Comparison of Attractiveness Indices (all markets)

7. Glossary
8. Abbreviations

TABLE OF CONTENTS / COUNTRY FACTSHEET

for each of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, Ukraine

1. About Attractiveness

2. Executive Summary
2.1. A snapshot of relative attractiveness : vs top 10 markets worldwide and in region
2.2. A snapshot view of category scores

3. Market Attractiveness
3.1 Total Power - trends in total (conventional + renewable) power and includes capacity, generation and consumption variables.
3.2 Renewable Power - trends in renewable (biomass, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar and wind) power and includes capacity and generation variables.
3.3 Solar Power - trends in solar power and contains solar capacity, generation and sector specific variables.
3.4 Network - variables related to the transmission of generated power to end users.

4. Trends in solar capacity
4.1 Total installed and added solar capacity
4.2 Breakdown of Solar CSP vs Solar PV (if available)
4.3 The relevance of solar power to the total power mix
4.4 The relevance of solar power to the renewable power mix
4.5 Trends in solar power capacity growth relative to other renewable power sectors
4.6 Relative share of World solar capacity
4.7 Relative share of solar capacity in Eurasia
4.8 Trends in solar power capacity growth relative to other top World and regional markets
4.9 Outlook for solar capacity
4.10 Generation of electricity from solar power
4.11 Solar power dataset, 1992 - 2017
4.12 Distribution losses and electricity trade balance

5. Policy Landscape
5.1 NREAP projections (EU markets only)

6. SWOT analysis

7. Business Attractiveness
7.1 Security - an assessment of the overall level of safety, security, democracy and peacefulness within a country.
7.2 Social - socio-demographic variables covering population trends and distribution as well as the human development index.
7.3 Technological - internet and phone proxies for the level of technological advancement with a country.
7.4 Economic - trends in gross domestic product, household consumption levels, inflation and government subsidies.
7.5 Political - considers the stability, accountability and effectiveness of government.
7.6 Trade - reviews the openness to trade, the scale and costs to trade and logistics factors.
7.7 Barriers To Trade - considers tangible and intangible barriers to conducting trade.
7.8 Legislative - reviews the impartiality and integrity of the legal system.
7.9 Policy - the scope of policy instruments utilized to promote renewable energy.
7.10 Incentives - the scope of incentive instruments utilized to promote renewable energy.
7.11 Operations - the ease of doing business and disclosure / administrative requirements.
7.12 Financing - the availability and costs of obtaining financing.

8. About Attractiveness - category descriptions
9. Glossary
10. Abbreviations



LIST OF TABLES / REGIONAL SUMMARY

Table 3.3a : Eurasia vs World for installed and added solar capacity with 10 year growth rates

Table 3.4a : Solar vs Other Renewables and Conventional power for installed and added capacity, % of total capacity and with 10 year growth rates
Table 3.5a : Solar vs Non-Hydro Renewables and all Renewables for installed and added capacity, % of renewable capacity and with 10 year growth rates

Table 3.8a : Initial, Added and Installed Solar Capacity, 1 year growth rate, % Renewables, % Total Capacity, 1992 - 2017

Table 4a : Policy Landscape for 15 markets, covering :
- Kyoto status
- Renewable Energy Targets
- Feed in tariffs / premium payments
- Electric utility quota obligations / renewable portfolio standards
- Net metering
- Heat obligation / mandate
- Tradeable Renewable Energy Certificates
- Capital subsidies, grants, rebates
- Investment or production tax credits
- Reductions in sales, energy or other taxes
- Energy production payments
- Public investment financing
- Public competitive bidding

Table 6a : Comparison of Attractiveness Indices for 15 markets for each of the 16 categories :
- Total Power - trends in total (conventional + renewable) power and includes capacity, generation and consumption variables.
- Renewables - trends in renewable (biomass, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar and wind) power and includes capacity and generation variables.
- Solar - trends in solar power and contains solar capacity, generation and sector specific variables.
- Network Score - variables related to the transmission of generated power to end users.
- Security - an assessment of the overall level of safety, security, democracy and peacefulness within a country.
- Social - socio-demographic variables covering population trends and distribution as well as the human development index.
- Technological - internet and phone proxies for the level of technological advancement with a country.
- Economic - trends in gross domestic product, household consumption levels, inflation and government subsidies.
- Political - considers the stability, accountability and effectiveness of government.
- Trade - reviews the openness to trade, the scale and costs to trade and logistics factors.
- Barriers To Trade - considers tangible and intangible barriers to conducting trade.
- Legislative - reviews the impartiality and integrity of the legal system.
- Policy - the scope of policy instruments utilized to promote renewable energy.
- Incentives - the scope of incentive instruments utilized to promote renewable energy.
- Operations - the ease of doing business and disclosure / administrative requirements.
- Financing - the availability and costs of obtaining financing.

LIST OF TABLES / COUNTRY FACTSHEET

Table 2a : Summary of variable indices for over 100 variables in 16 categories and identification of variables with a low index

Table 3.1a : Variable indices and measures for Total Power category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 3.2a : Variable indices and measures for Renewables category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 3.3a : Variable indices and measures for Solar category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 3.4a : Variable indices and measures for Network Score category compared to regional and World ranges

Table 4.2a : Breakdown of installed and added solar capacity with 10 year growth rates for Solar CSP vs Solar PV (if available)

Table 4.3a : Solar vs Other Renewables and Conventional power for installed and added capacity, % of total capacity and with 10 year growth rates
Table 4.4a : Solar vs Non-Hydro Renewables and all Renewables for installed and added capacity, % of renewable capacity and with 10 year growth rates
Table 4.5a : Short and long term growth rates and added capacity as percent of installed capacity for each of the renewable power sectors

Table 4.11a : Initial, Added and Installed Solar Capacity, 1 year growth rate, % Renewables, % Total Capacity, 1992 - 2017

Table 5a : Policy Landscape, covering :
- Kyoto status
- Renewable Energy Targets
- Feed in tariffs / premium payments
- Electric utility quota obligations / renewable portfolio standards
- Net metering
- Heat obligation / mandate
- Tradeable Renewable Energy Certificates
- Capital subsidies, grants, rebates
- Investment or production tax credits
- Reductions in sales, energy or other taxes
- Energy production payments
- Public investment financing
- Public competitive bidding

Table 5.1a : NREAP Projections (EU markets only), covering :
- Gross Final Energy
- Estimated Installed Capacity
- Estimated Fross Electricity Generation
- Estimated Final Energy Consumption

Table 7.1a : Variable indices and measures for Security category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.2a : Variable indices and measures for Social category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.3a : Variable indices and measures for Technological category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.4a : Variable indices and measures for Economic category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.5a : Variable indices and measures for Political category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.6a : Variable indices and measures for Trade category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.7a : Variable indices and measures for Barriers To Trade category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.8a : Variable indices and measures for Legislative category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.9a : Variable indices and measures for Policy category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.10a : Variable indices and measures for Incentives category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.11a : Variable indices and measures for Operations category compared to regional and World ranges
Table 7.12a : Variable indices and measures for Financing category compared to regional and World ranges



LIST OF FIGURES / REGIONAL SUMMARY

Figure 2a : Median attractiveness indices by region
Figure 2.1a : A comparison of market attractiveness, top 10 markets
Figure 2.1b : A comparison of market attractiveness indices ranges by region

Figure 2.2a : Distribution of category scores for top 10 most attractive solar markets in Eurasia

Figure 3.1a : Aggregate installed and added solar capacity, Eurasia, 2002 - 2012
Figure 3.1b : Installed solar capacity for the top 10 most attractive markets in Eurasia, indexed on 2012

Figure 3.2a : Installed capacity, Added capacity % Region, % World, by country, ranked

Figure 3.3 a,b,c : Installed solar capacity in Eurasia as % World, 2003 - 2012
Figure 3.3 d,e,f : Added solar capacity in Eurasia as % World, 2003 - 2012

Figure 3.4 a,b,c : Solar capacity as % total installed power mix, 2003 - 2012
Figure 3.4 d,e,f : Solar capacity as % total added power mix, 2003 - 2012

Figure 3.5 a,b,c : Solar capacity as % renewable installed power mix, 2003 - 2012
Figure 3.5 d,e,f : Solar capacity as % renewable added power mix, 2003 - 2012

Figure 3.6a : Short and long term growth trends in solar capacity by country
Figure 3.6b : Distribution of solar capacity scores per capita, per $mn GDP, per square kilometer

Figure 3.7a : Outlook for installed and added solar capacity, Eurasia, 2012 - 2017
Figure 3.7b : Solar as a percent of total, renewable and non-hydro renewable capacity, Eurasia, 2012 - 2017

Figure 5.1a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Ukraine
Figure 5.2a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Estonia
Figure 5.3a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Russia
Figure 5.4a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Latvia
Figure 5.5a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Kazakhstan
Figure 5.6a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Georgia
Figure 5.7a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Lithuania
Figure 5.8a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Armenia
Figure 5.9a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Tajikistan
Figure 5.10a : Conventional, renewable and solar capacity as a share of total power capacity, Uzbekistan

LIST OF FIGURES / COUNTRY FACTSHEET

Figure 2.1a : A comparison of market attractiveness, top 10 markets, World
Figure 2.1a : A comparison of market attractiveness, top 10 markets, Eurasia

Figure 2.2a : Category scores for country compared to regional and World ranges

Figure 3.1a : Variable indices for Total Power category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 3.2a : Variable indices for Renewables category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 3.3a : Variable indices for Solar category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 3.4a : Variable indices for Network Score category compared to regional and World ranges

Figure 4.1a : Aggregate installed and added solar capacity, 2002 - 2012
Figure 4.1b : Installed solar capacity vs other power sectors, indexed on 2012

Figure 4.2a : Installed Solar CSP vs Solar PV capacity as % total installed solar power (if available)
Figure 4.2b : Installed Solar CSP vs Solar PV capacity as % total added solar power (if available)

Figure 4.3 a,b,c : Solar capacity as % total installed power mix, 2003 - 2012
Figure 4.3 d,e,f : Solar capacity as % total added power mix, 2003 - 2012

Figure 4.4 a,b,c : Solar capacity as % renewable installed power mix, 2003 - 2012
Figure 4.4 d,e,f : Solar capacity as % renewable added power mix, 2003 - 2012

Figure 4.5a : Short and long term growth trends in solar capacity vs other power sectors
Figure 4.5b : Added capacity as percent of installed capacity, all renewable power sectors, 2002 - 2012

Figure 4.6a : Installed capacity, Added capacity % Region, % World, Top Solar Markets in World, ranked
Figure 4.6b : Installed and added capacity as % World, 2003 - 2012

Figure 4.7a : Installed capacity, Added capacity % Region, % World, Top Solar Markets in Eurasia, ranked
Figure 4.7b : Installed and added capacity as % Eurasia, 2003 - 2012

Figure 4.8a : Short and long term growth trends in solar capacity, comparison with top World and regional markets
Figure 4.8b : solar capacity per capita, per $mn GDP, per square kilometer, with comparison to World and regional ranges

Figure 4.9a : Outlook for installed and added solar capacity, 2012 - 2017
Figure 4.9b : Solar as a percent of total, renewable and non-hydro renewable capacity, 2012 - 2017

Figure 4.10a : Generation of electricity from solar power, 2002 - 2012
Figure 4.10b : Solar power capacity factor, with comparison to World and regional ranges
Figure 4.10c : Comparison of solar as a percentage of total capacity and total generation, 2002 - 2012

Figure 4.12a : Distribution losses, 2002 - 2012
Figure 4.12b : Electricity trade balance (imports, exports), 2002 - 2012

Figure 7.1a : Variable indices for Security category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.2a : Variable indices for Social category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.3a : Variable indices for Technological category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.4a : Variable indices for Economic category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.5a : Variable indices for Political category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.6a : Variable indices for Trade category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.7a : Variable indices for Barriers To Trade category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.8a : Variable indices for Legislative category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.9a : Variable indices for Policy category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.10a : Variable indices for Incentives category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.11a : Variable indices for Operations category compared to regional and World ranges
Figure 7.12a : Variable indices for Financing category compared to regional and World ranges

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